Maria Taljegård

Cost-effective choices of marine fuels in a carbon-constrained world: results from a global energy model.

The regionalized Global Energy Transition model has been modified to include a more detailed shipping sector in order to assess what marine fuels and propulsion technologies might be cost-effective by 2050 when achieving an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 or 500 ppm by the year 2100. The robustness of the results was examined in a Monte Carlo analysis, varying uncertain parameters and technology options, including the amount of primary energy resources, the availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and costs of different technologies and fuels. The four main findings are (i) it is cost-effective to start the phase out of fuel oil from the shipping sector in the next decade; (ii) natural gas-based fuels (liquefied natural gas and methanol) are the most probable substitutes during the study period; (iii) availability of CCS, the CO2 target, the liquefied natural gas tank cost and potential oil resources affect marine fuel choices significantly; and (iv) biofuels rarely play a major role in the shipping sector, due to limited supply and competition for bioenergy from other energy sectors.

The potential for electrofuels production in Sweden utilizing fossil and biogenic CO2 point sources

This paper maps, categorizes, and quantifies all major point sources of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial and combustion processes in Sweden. The paper also estimates the Swedish technical potential for electrofuels (power-to-gas/fuels) based on carbon capture and utilization. With our bottom-up approach using European data-bases, we find that Sweden emits approximately 50 million metric tons of CO2 per year from different types of point sources, with 65% (or about 32 million tons) from biogenic sources. The major sources are the pulp and paper industry (46%), heat and power production (23%), and waste treatment and incineration (8%). Most of the CO2 is emitted at low concentrations ( 90%, biofuel operations) would yield electrofuels corresponding to approximately 2% of the current demand for transportation fuels (corresponding to 1.5–2 TWh/year). In a 2030 scenario with large-scale biofuels operations based on lignocellulosic feedstocks, the potential for electrofuels production from high-concentration sources increases to 8–11 TWh/year. Finally, renewable electricity and production costs, rather than CO2 supply, limit the potential for production of electrofuels in Sweden.

Electric road systems in Norway and Sweden-impact on CO 2 emissions and infrastructure cost

This study investigates a large-scale implementation of electric road system (ERS) in Norway and Sweden by analysing (i) which roads, (ii) how much of the road network and (iii) what vehicle types that are beneficial to electrify based on analysis of road traffic volumes, CO2 emissions mitigation potential and infrastructure investment costs per vehicle kilometre. All European and National roads in Norway and Sweden have been included assuming different degrees of electrification in terms fraction of the road length with ERS, prioritizing high traffic roads. The results show similar effect from ERS in Norway and Sweden. Implementing ERS on 25% of the busiest European and National road length in both countries is enough to result in an electrification of approximately 70% of the vehicle kilometres on these roads and 35% of the total vehicle kilometres on all roads. An ERS on all European and National roads will include 60 and 70% of the vehicle kilometres and CO2 emissions from all heavy traffic in Norway and Sweden, respectively. The results also show that aiming to electrify more than 50% of the light vehicles with ERS implies that also county roads and private roads need to be included. For a majority of the European and National roads, the infrastructure investment cost per vehicle kilometre are low compare to the current cost for diesel per kilometre assuming a depreciation time of ERS investments of 35 years.