Maria Xylia

Fossil-free public transport: Prescriptive policy analysis for the Swedish bus fleets

Elicitation and processing of the relevant information is the core of any policy decision-making process. This study presents a prescriptive policy analysis for the “fossil-free fuel deployment for public transport buses at the national level in Sweden”, using a policy-oriented modelling and simulation tool, Sense4us1, that supports systems analysis for policy involving: (i) structuring of policy problems using the labelled causal mapping method, (ii) ex-ante impact assessment using scenario-based dynamic simulation modelling and (iii) ex-ante evaluation of the considered policy options based on the simulation results and using a set of standard criteria for evaluation of EU policy interventions. The results are most of all useful for designing a policy pathway for public bus transport that is both environmentally sustainable and economically feasible. Moreover, the process allows involvement of the key stakeholders to reflect various priorities and preferences.