Mariana M. Vale

A global map of roadless areas and their conservation status

Too many roads Roads have done much to help humanity spread across the planet and maintain global movement and trade. However, roads also damage wild areas and rapidly contribute to habitat degradation and species loss. Ibisch et al. cataloged the worlds roads. Though most of the world is not covered by roads, it is fragmented by them, with only 7% of land patches created by roads being greater than 100 km2. Furthermore, environmental protection of roadless areas is insufficient, which could lead to further degradation of the worlds remaining wildernesses. Science, this issue p. 1423 Roads have fragmented the vast majority of Earth’s terrestrial environment. Roads fragment landscapes and trigger human colonization and degradation of ecosystems, to the detriment of biodiversity and ecosystem functions. The planet’s remaining large and ecologically important tracts of roadless areas sustain key refugia for biodiversity and provide globally relevant ecosystem services. Applying a 1-kilometer buffer to all roads, we present a global map of roadless areas and an assessment of their status, quality, and extent of coverage by protected areas. About 80% of Earth’s terrestrial surface remains roadless, but this area is fragmented into ~600,000 patches, more than half of which are <1 square kilometer and only 7% of which are larger than 100 square kilometers. Global protection of ecologically valuable roadless areas is inadequate. International recognition and protection of roadless areas is urgently needed to halt their continued loss.

Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change

Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector’s climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” and “high increase”. Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region.

Effects of Future Infrastructure Development on Threat Status and Occurrence of Amazonian Birds

Researchers predict that new infrastructure development will sharply increase the rate and extent of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. There are no predictions, however, of which species it will affect. We used a spatially explicit model that predicts the location of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2020 on the basis of historical patterns of deforestation following infrastructure development. We overlaid the predicted deforested areas onto maps of bird ranges to estimate the amount of habitat loss within species ranges. We also estimated the amount of habitat loss within modified ecoregions, which were used as surrogates for areas of bird endemism. We then used the extent of occurrence criterion of the World Conservation Union to predict the future conservation status of birds in the Brazilian Amazon. At current rates of development, our results show that at least 16 species will qualify as threatened or will lose more than half of their forested habitat. We also identified several subspecies and isolated populations that would also qualify as threatened. Most of the taxa we identified are not currently listed as threatened, and the majority are associated with riverine habitats, which have been largely ignored in bird conservation in Amazonia. These habitats and the species they hold will be increasingly relevant to conservation as river courses are altered and hydroelectric dams are constructed in the Brazilian Amazon.

Conservation challenges for the austral and neotropical America section.

The Austral and Neotropical America (ANA) section of the Society for Conservation Biology includes a vast territory with some of the largest relatively pristine ecosystems in the world. With more than 573 million people, the economic growth of the region still depends strongly on natural resource exploitation and still has high rates of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. A survey among the ANA section membership, with more than 700 members, including most of the sections prominent ecologists and conservationists, indicates that lack of capacity building for conservation, corruption, and threats such as deforestation and illegal trade of species, are among the most urgent problems that need to be addressed to improve conservation in the region. There are, however, strong universities and ecology groups taking the lead in environmental research and conservation, a most important issue to enhance the ability of the region to solve conservation and development conflicts.

Patterns of Vertebrate Diversity and Protection in Brazil

Most conservation decisions take place at national or finer spatial scales. Providing useful information at such decision-making scales is essential for guiding the practice of conservation. Brazil is one of the world’s megadiverse countries, and consequently decisions about conservation in the country have a disproportionate impact on the survival of global biodiversity. For three groups of terrestrial vertebrates (birds, mammals, and amphibians), we examined geographic patterns of diversity and protection in Brazil, including that of endemic, small-ranged, and threatened species. To understand potential limitations of the data, we also explored how spatial bias in collection localities may influence the perceived patterns of diversity. The highest overall species richness is in the Amazon and Atlantic Forests, while the Atlantic Forest dominates in terms of country endemics and small-ranged species. Globally threatened species do not present a consistent pattern. Patterns for birds were similar to overall species richness, with higher concentrations of threatened species in the Atlantic Forest, while mammals show a more generalized pattern across the country and a high concentration in the Amazon. Few amphibians are listed as threatened, mostly in the Atlantic Forest. Data deficient mammals occur across the country, concentrating in the Amazon and southeast Atlantic Forest, and there are no data deficient birds in Brazil. In contrast, nearly a third of amphibians are data deficient, widespread across the country, but with a high concentration in the far southeast. Spatial biases in species locality data, however, possibly influence the perceived patterns of biodiversity. Regions with low sampling density need more biological studies, as do the many data deficient species. All biomes except the Amazon have less than 3% of their area under full protection. Reassuringly though, rates of protection do correlate with higher biodiversity, including higher levels of threatened and small-ranged species. Our results indicate a need for expanded formal protection in Brazil, especially in the Atlantic forest, and with an emphasis on fully protected areas.

Increasing strict protection through protected areas on Brazilian private lands

A key strategy to reduce habitat loss and fragmentation involves the establishment of protected areas (PAs). Worldwide, c. 13% of land lies within PAs, but only 6% is subject to the more restrictive International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) categories I-IV. Private PAs may contribute to this figure, but require general guidance principles for their management. The Brazilian ‘Private Natural Heritage Reserves’ (RPPNs) constitute an example of good PA management, employing seven principles that should guide the creation of all private PAs. RPPNs have legal status and long-term security, allow only for indirect human uses, and provide a strategic conservation role in highly fragmented landscapes by improving connectivity. However, RPPNs are virtually absent from the World Database on Protected Areas, and given Brazils continental size, and the considerable and increasing number of RPPNs in Brazil, this omission has the potential to skew accurate quantification of the area of land subject to strict protection. The RPPN model can make an important contribution to the discussion of the role of private PAs in conservation, especially in the tropics.

Abundance, distribution and conservation of Rio Branco Antbird Cercomacra carbonaria and Hoary-throated Spinetail Synallaxis kollari

Summary Cercomacra carbonaria and Synallaxis kollari are passerine birds endemic to the gallery forests of Roraima state in northernmost Brazil and adjacent Guyana. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species lists both as Vulnerable but they have been removed from Brazil’s list of threatened species because of data deficiency. They are poorly known, reflecting both Roraima state’s distance from Brazil’s main population centres and the inaccessibility of their habitat. In 2004 and 2005, we conducted bird surveys along the major rivers that provided previous sightings, and expanded records from only a handful to several dozens. We found C. carbonaria at 29% of the points surveyed, and estimated its local population density at approximately 80 individuals km 22 and total population size to exceed 15,000 individuals. The species has 723 km 2 of available habitat, 8% of which is inside conservation units. We found S. kollari at 44% of the points surveyed, and estimated its local population density as approximately 60 individuals km 22 , with an estimated total population size exceeding 5,000 individuals. It has 206 km 2 of available habitat, none of which is inside conservation units. We recommend that C. carbonaria be downlisted on the IUCN Red List to the Near Threatened category, and that S. kollari be listed as Endangered. Both species live in areas vulnerable to habitat loss. We also recommend that both species re-enter the Brazilian list of threatened species and highlight the importance of indigenous reserves to their conservation.

New records and a taxonomic review prompts reassessment of Lonchophylla bokermanni, a rare bat endemic to the Brazilian Cerrado

Lonchophylla bokermanni is a nectar-feeding bat endemic to south-east Brazil that is currently categorized as Vulnerable in Brazil but as Data Deficient on the IUCN Red List. Originally described in the Cerrado savannah of Minas Gerais state in 1978, the species is known to occur in only two other nearby localities. In the last 2 decades individuals identified as L. bokermanni were recorded in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, increasing the known range of the species. A recent taxonomic review, however, has shown that Atlantic Forest individuals belong to a separate, new species, Lonchophylla peracchii. L. bokermanni, therefore, is known from only three localities, with an Extent of Occurrence of 1,506 km2. Because this EOO is ,5,000 km2, the species is known from ,5 localities, and there is a presumed continued decline in its habitat extent and quality, it should be categorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List. We recommend that the state of the three known populations of L. bokermanni be evaluated, and that surveys for further populations are required, particularly in Serra do Cipo National Park.

Abundance, distribution and conservation of the Restinga Antwren Formicivora littoralis

The Restinga Antwren (Thamnophilidae: Formicivora littoralis ) is endemic to a small region on the coast of Rio de Janeiro state in southeastern Brazil. Currently, it is considered ‘Critically Endangered’ by IUCN due to continuing habitat loss within its very small and severely fragmented range. Data available to assess its conservation status, however, are scarce. From 2005 to 2007, we conducted bird surveys to produce more rigorous estimates of geographic range limits, available habitat, local population density, and global population size. We used these data and IUCN criteria to reassess the conservation status of the Restinga Antwren. We recorded the species in a new locality (Tucuns, Armacao dos Buzios), expanding its range by 5 km from the easternmost known limit. The species was present in 65% of the points surveyed within its range, in restinga fragments that cover an area of c . 42 km 2 (84% of the total restinga within the species’s range). We estimated that this bird has an Extent of Occurrence of 233.5 km 2 , an Area of Occupancy of 148 km 2 , and a global population size

Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds

Background A key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species’ representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning protected areas network to represent 151 birds endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, under current and future climate change conditions for 2050. Methods We combined environmental niche modeling and systematic conservation planning using both a county and a regional level planning strategy. We recognized the conflict between biodiversity conservation and economic development, including socio-economic targets (as opposed to biological only) and using planning units that are meaningful for policy-makers. Results We estimated an average contraction of 29,500 km2 in environmentally suitable areas for birds, representing 52% of currently suitable areas. Still, the most cost-effective solution represented almost all target species, requiring only ca. 10% of the Atlantic Forest counties to achieve that representativeness, independent of strategy. More than 50% of these counties were selected both in the current and future planned networks, representing >83% of the species. Discussion Our results indicate that: (i) planning protected areas network currently can be useful to represent species under climate change; (ii) the overlapped planning units in the best solution for both current and future conditions can be considered as “no regret” areas; (iii) priority counties are spread throughout the biome, providing specific guidance wherever the possibility of creating protected area arises; and (iv) decisions can occur at different administrative spheres (Federal, State or County) as we found quite similar numerical solutions using either county or regional level strategies.