Marianne E. Page

The Intergenerational Effects of Compulsory Schooling

This article attempts to improve our understanding of the causal processes that contribute to intergenerational immobility by exploiting historical changes in compulsory schooling laws that affected the educational attainment of parents without affecting their innate abilities or endowments. We examine the influence of parental compulsory schooling on children’s grade‐for‐age using the 1960, 1970, and 1980 U.S. censuses. Our estimates indicate that a 1‐year increase in the education of either parent reduces the probability that a child repeats a grade by between 2 and 4 percentage points.

Examining the Link between Teacher Wages and Student Outcomes: The Importance of Alternative Labor Market Opportunities and Non-Pecuniary Variation

Researchers using cross-sectional data have failed to produce systematic evidence that teacher salaries affect student outcomes. These studies generally do not account for non-pecuniary job attributes and alternative wage opportunities, which affect the opportunity cost of choosing to teach. When we employ the methodology used in previous studies, we replicate their results. However, once we adjust for labor market factors, we estimate that raising teacher wages by 10 reduces high school dropout rates by 3 to 4. Our findings suggest that previous studies have failed to produce robust estimates because they lack adequate controls for non-wage aspects of teaching and market differences in alternative occupational opportunities.

The Intergenerational Effects of Worker Displacement

This article uses variation induced by firm closures to explore the intergenerational effects of worker displacement using a Canadian panel of administrative data that follows more than 39,000 father‐son pairs from 1978 to 1999. We find that children whose fathers were displaced have annual earnings about 9% lower than similar children whose fathers did not experience an employment shock. They are also more likely to receive unemployment insurance and social assistance. The estimates are driven by the experiences of children whose family income was at the bottom of the income distribution.

To what extent do fiscal regimes equalize opportunities for income acquisition among citizens

This project employs the theory of equality of opportunity, described in Roemers book (Equality of Opportunity, Harvard University Press, 1998), to compute the extent to which tax-and-transfer regimes in ten countries equalize opportunities among citizens for income acquisition. Roughly speaking, equality of opportunity for incomes has been achieved in a country when it is the case that the distributions of post-fisc income are the same for different types of citizen, where a citizens type is defined by the socioeconomic status of his parents. Intuitively, a country will have equalized opportunity if the chances of earning high (or low) income are equal for citizens from all family backgrounds. Of course, pre-fisc income distributions, by type, will not be identical, as long as the educational system does not entirely make up for the disadvantage that children, who come from poor families face, but the tax-and-transfer system can play a role in rectifying that inequality. We include, in our computation, two numbers that summarize the extent to which each countrys current fiscal regime achieves equalization of opportunities for income, and the deadweight loss that would be incurred by moving to the regime that does.

Poverty in America: Trends and Explanations

Despite robust growth in real per capita GDP over the last three decades, the U.S. poverty rate has changed very little. In an effort to better understand this disconnect, we document and quantify the relationship between poverty and four different factors that may affect poverty and its evolution over time: labor market opportunities, family structure, anti-poverty programs, and immigration. We find that the relationship between the macro-economy and poverty has weakened over time. Nevertheless, changes in labor market opportunities predict changes in the poverty rate rather well. We also find that changes in female labor supply should have reduced poverty, but was counteracted by an increase in the rate of female headship. Changes in the number and composition of immigrants and changes in the generosity of anti-poverty programs seem to have had little effect.

Correlations between Brothers and Neighboring Boys in Their Adult Earnings: The Importance of Being Urban

A comparison of the correlations between brothers and neighboring boys in their adult earnings suggests that the earnings resemblance between brothers stems more from growing up in the same family than from growing up in the same neighborhood. Much of the neighbor correlation is explicable in terms of the large earnings differential between urban and nonurban areas combined with the strength with which urbanicity of childhood neighborhood predicts urbanicity of adult location. This pattern is subject to a variety of interpretations, but it is quite different from the usual view of neighborhood effects.

The Economic Consequences of Absent Parents.

We examine the effects of family structure on economic resources, controlling for unobservable family characteristics. In the year following a divorce, family income falls by 41 percent and family food consumption falls by 18 percent. Six or more years later, the family income of the average child whose parent remains unmarried is 45 percent lower than it would have been if the divorce had not occurred. Marriage raises the long-run family income of children born to single parents by 45 percent. These estimates are substantially smaller than the losses that are implied by cross-sectional comparisons across family types.

Are point-in-time measures of neighborhood characteristics useful proxies for children’s long-run neighborhood environment?

Abstract How well do the point-in-time neighborhood measures commonly used in studies of neighborhood effects represent longer-run neighborhood environment? Our evidence on children’s year-to-year correlations in neighborhood characteristics suggests that the neighborhood a child inhabits at a particular time is a reasonable proxy for her long-run environment, and that relying on such a proxy produces only a small errors-in-variables bias.

Understanding Racial Differences in the Economic Costs of Growing Up in a Single-Parent Family

This article examines whether the economic consequences of growing up in a single-parent family differ for black children and white children. It is important to understand whether the costs differ across racial groups because although much of the rhetoric about poor single-parent families focuses on inner-city blacks, most children who live in such families are white. If the costs of living with only one parent vary across groups, then policies that are aimed at reducing the costs that do not acknowledge this variation will not target resources efficiently. We found that the economic costs of living with a single parent are larger for black children than for white children. Most of the discrepancy can be attributed to differences in remarriage rates, marital stability, welfare participation, and female labor supply.

War and Marriage: Assortative Mating and the World War II GI Bill

World War II and its subsequent GI Bill have been widely credited with playing a transformative role in American society, but there have been few quantitative analyses of these historical events’ broad social effects. We exploit between-cohort variation in the probability of military service to investigate how WWII and the GI Bill altered the structure of marriage, and find that it had important spillover effects beyond its direct effect on men’s educational attainment. Our results suggest that the additional education received by returning veterans caused them to “sort” into wives with significantly higher levels of education. This suggests an important mechanism by which socioeconomic status may be passed on to the next generation.