Mario Cozzi

Ordered weight averaging multicriteria procedure and cost-effectiveness analysis for short rotation forestry in the Basilicata region, Italy

Optimisation of bio-energy chains and the establishment of a bioenergy district can make a positive contribution to territorial development, while reducing environmental pollution. The Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) multi-criteria analysis was applied to Basilicata Region in southern Italy to identify suitable areas for Short Rotation Forestry: 4659 ha, 8847 ha and 4742 ha could be planted with eucalyptus, poplar and black locust, respectively. Based on the results, financial analysis compared different management and production scenarios and explored the possibility of accessing national incentives. Economic results are positive above certain yield thresholds (> 15 t.d.m/ha) that can be ensured only with irrigation in summer: the NPV/ha ranged from €111 for black locust to €1360 for poplar. Further economic benefits could be generated by the access to the white certificate market and to the voluntary carbon credit market. Lastly, the results obtained have been confirmed by a sensitivity analysis.

Escaping the resource curse in regional development: a case study on the allocation of oil royalties

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the socio-economic impact of the allocation of royalties from oil extraction on regional development through a case study on the Basilicata region (Italy). We examine how the regional governments chosen policies have impacted the income of Basilicata residents and the economic development of the region and how a different set of choices may reveal a more effective approach to turning revenue into long-term public benefits. The analysis focuses on growth as well as on distributive impacts of the allocation of royalties. The results clearly show that the past allocation of the royalties accruing to regional government into regional policies generated little impact in terms of economic growth and occupation, the total well below what was expected. Appreciable impacts on incomes and occupation will not be forthcoming unless resources are redirected towards supporting a stronger competitiveness of the regional economic system.

Wildlife Agriculture Interactions, Spatial Analysis and Trade-Off Between Environmental Sustainability and Risk of Economic Damage

Over the last few years, wildlife damages to the agricultural sector have shown an increasing trend at the global scale. Fragile rural areas are more likely to suffer because marginal lands, which have little potential for profit, are being increasingly abandoned. Moreover, public administrations have difficulties to meet the growing requests for crop damage compensations. There is therefore a need to identify appropriate measures to control this growing trend. The specific aim of this research is to understand this phenomenon and define specific and effective action tools. In particular, the proposed research involves different steps that start from the historic analysis of damages and result in the mapping of risk levels using different tests (ANOVA, PCA and spatial correlation) and spatial models (MCE-OWA). The subsequent possibility to cluster risk results ensures greater effectiveness of public actions. The results obtained and the statistical consistency of applied parameters ensure the strength of the analysis and of cost-effectiveness parameters.

Agro-energie in Basilicata : un approccio analitico per la valutazione dei costi di trasporto

The present study aims at implementing a biomass transportation cost mapping, drawn thanks to the spatial analyses included in the Geographical Information System (GIS). The themes involved in the creation of the cost function can be identified in the use of soil, information concerning the punctual biomass availability, road system and morphology, and exact localisation of plants for processing wooden material, etc. The idea stands in the will to search for and afterwards apply a function able to match cost and distance by keeping in mind several parameters. Stepping back, the realisation of the transport cost function is useful in case we have not definitely placed the biomass processing plants in the whole area as it is in the region of Basilicata, the area analysed in the present proposal. The proposed analysis would be useful to identify the economically valid collection basins and the best positions where a new plant can be installed, and also the size itself of the biomass processing plant on the basis of the actual production conditions of the area.

Soil Loss, Productivity and Cropland Values GIS-Based Analysis and Trends in the Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) from 1980 to 2013

This paper concerns the trends assessment of the productivity values and croplands values of specific crops (cereals (arable cereals land), vineyards, olive-growing lands) in the Basilicata region at regional scale, from 1980 to 2013, in relation to the soil loss evaluated through the USPED method. The comparative analysis shows the interrelations between the soil loss by erosion and the economic value deriving from the erosive phenomenon affecting the croplands considered.

The Sustainability of Non-renewable Resources Use at Regional Level: A Case Study on Allocation of Oil Royalties

The aim of this work was to assess the socioeconomic impact derived from the oil royalty allocation on regional development, using a multi-sector model based on a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), appropriately implemented for Basilicata region (Italy), the typical case of a region lagging behind in a developed economy. Our focus was on how political decisions have influenced the economic development of the region and how a different set of choices can be more effective in transforming public receipts into long-term benefits. Results show clearly that in the past the allocation of oil royalties to the regional Government (as a whole 990 million euros) generated a much lower impact than expected, in terms of economic growth and employment. Given the structure of the regional economy, much of the impact of investments and running expenses financed by royalties has maybe been lost outside the regional boundaries. A greater effect on income and employment will not be possible unless resources are redirected towards greater competitiveness of the regional economic system. Better balancing the use of royalties between social expenditure and production investments would probably be the first step towards a strategy of sustainable development of the regional economy.

The Effects of Climate Change on the Multifunctional Role of Basilicata’s Forests: The Effects Induced on Yield and CO2 Absorption

The first studies on the possible impact of climate change on European forests and the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies began in the 1990s and resulted in the identification of risk assessment models and forest management tools. The prediction of climate change impacts on forests has been based using the evidence theory or Dempster-Shafer (DS)’s theory, appropriately spatialised. The implemented evidence lines refer to the concepts of vulnerability and resilience. The results of the DS model, applied to the Basilicata region, were utilised to assess the loss in biomass production capacity and CO2 absorption ability of different forest-derived biomasses. The loss in stumpage value and in the estimated CO2 absorption shows a reduction over time of forest system’s economic value that is basically higher in 2050 than in 2100. The applied methodological approach has shown that the high degree of spatial and information detail may be helpful to produce good predictions to envisage environmental policy strategies for the monitoring and mitigation of the damages caused by the climate change, with a view to ensuring the ecosystems’ capacity to produce positive externalities, including air carbon sequestration capacity.

Post-2013 EU Common Agricultural Policy: predictive models of land use change

This article presents a multi-temporal uncertainty-based method that incorporates a statistical regression model with a view to establishing the risk (probability) of land cover changes as a function of a set of environmental and socio-economic driving factors. The morphologic, climatic and socio-economic variables were examined using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). Following the analysis, maps indicating the suitability to future changes were generated on the basis of observed transitions. From these maps two possible land use scenarios were built, applying the Markov chain principle. The region of Basilicata, in southern Italy, was selected for the analysis. The results highlight: a) a good inclination to change towards specialised crop systems, provided there is sufficient water supply; b) that some cropping patterns are not suitable for changes, partly because they are found in a context with severe limitations for alternative uses.

Promoting Small-Scale Biofuel Production: A Qualitative GIS-OWA Methodology for Land Suitability Analysis of Winter Rapeseed

Biofuels could be a possible solution to promote agricultural development in rural areas by increasing farm income. Different studies suggest that all problems linked to large-scale biofuel production can be overcome by promoting small-scale production, particularly of rapeseed straight vegetable oil (SVO) used as self-supply agricultural biofuel, specially if the rapeseed is cultivated in crop rotation systems with minimum tillage practices. However, an ex-ante analysis would be very important to explore the feasibility of rapeseed production, via the evaluation of land use suitability.

SAM multipliers and subsystems: structural analysis of the Basilicata’s agri-food sector

Local agri-food products are conceived as a form of cultural capital, representing potentially fruitful resources for rural development. Italy and its regions offer a rich and diverse agricultural and food heritage that has led to the creation of numerous quality agri-food systems. Despite their ability to absorb disturbances and maintain their functions, it is important to develop economic models targeted to analyse the relationships among the components of food systems, in order to identify their strengths and weaknesses and drive the implementation of sectoral policies. In view of the new Rural Development Programme (2014-2020), the aim of this work is to analyse the structure of the Basilicata’s agri-food system using a multi-sector model based on a two-region SAM, specifically developed for Basilicata, an Italian region characterised by a highly specialised agri-food sector. Results show that the availability of a highly disaggregate multi-sector model of the regional economy may be a valuable supporting tool to design regional policies for innovation and for the development of rural areas, laying the foundation for further analysis.