Mario Lazzarino

Time-Dependent Prognostic Scoring System for Predicting Survival and Leukemic Evolution in Myelodysplastic Syndromes

PURPOSE The aims of this study were to identify the most significant prognostic factors in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) taking into account both their values at clinical onset and their changes in time and to develop a dynamic model for predicting survival and leukemic evolution that can be applied at any time during the course of the disease. PATIENTS AND METHODS We studied a learning cohort of 426 MDS patients diagnosed at the Department of Hematology, San Matteo Hospital, Pavia, Italy, between 1992 and 2004, and a validation cohort of 739 patients diagnosed at the Heinrich-Heine-University Hospital, Düsseldorf, Germany, between 1982 and 2003. All patients were reclassified according to WHO criteria. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed using Cox models with time-dependent covariates. RESULTS The most important variables for the prognostic model were WHO subgroups, karyotype, and transfusion requirement. We defined a WHO classification-based prognostic scoring system (WPSS) that was able to classify patients into five risk groups showing different survivals (median survival from 12 to 103 months) and probabilities of leukemic evolution (P < .001). WPSS was shown to predict survival and leukemia progression at any time during follow-up (P < .001), and its prognostic value was confirmed in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION WPSS is a dynamic prognostic scoring system that provides an accurate prediction of survival and risk of leukemic evolution in MDS patients at any time during the course of their disease. This time-dependent system seems particularly useful in lower risk patients and may be used for implementing risk-adapted treatment strategies.

Prognostic Factors and Life Expectancy in Myelodysplastic Syndromes Classified According to WHO Criteria: A Basis for Clinical Decision Making

PURPOSE The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the WHO proposal, to assess the role of the main prognostic factors in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs) classified into WHO subgroups, and to estimate mortality (standardized mortality ratio [SMR]) and life expectancy in these groups as a basis for clinical decision making. PATIENTS AND METHODS Four hundred sixty-seven patients who were diagnosed as having de novo MDS at the Division of Hematology, University of Pavia (Pavia, Italy), between 1992 and 2002, were evaluated retrospectively for clinical and hematologic features at diagnosis, overall survival (OS), and progression to leukemia (leukemia-free survival). RESULTS Significant differences in survival were noted between patients with refractory anemia (RA), refractory cytopenia with multilineage dysplasia, RA with excess blasts, type 1 (RAEB-1), and RAEB-2. The effect of demographic factors on OS was observed in MDS patients without excess blasts (age, P = .001; sex, P = .006), as in the general population. The mortality of RA patients 70 years or older did not differ significantly from that of the general population (SMR, 1.62; P = .06). Cytogenetics was the only International Prognostic Scoring System variable showing a prognostic value in MDS classified into WHO subgroups. Transfusion-dependent patients had a significantly shorter survival than patients who did not require transfusions (P < .001). Developing a secondary iron overload significantly affected the survival of transfusion-dependent patients (P = .003). CONCLUSION These data show that the WHO classification of MDSs has a relevant prognostic value. This classification, along with cytogenetics, might be useful in decisions regarding transplantation. MDS with isolated erythroid lineage dysplasia identifies a subset of truly low-risk patients, for whom a conservative approach is advisable.

A dynamic prognostic model to predict survival in primary myelofibrosis: a study by the IWG-MRT (International Working Group for Myeloproliferative Neoplasms Research and Treatment)

Age older than 65 years, hemoglobin level lower than 100 g/L (10 g/dL), white blood cell count greater than 25 x 10(9)/L, peripheral blood blasts 1% or higher, and constitutional symptoms have been shown to predict poor survival in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) at diagnosis. To investigate whether the acquisition of these factors during follow-up predicts survival, we studied 525 PMF patients regularly followed. All 5 variables had a significant impact on survival when analyzed as time-dependent covariates in a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model and were included in 2 separate models, 1 for all patients (Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System [DIPSS]) and 1 for patients younger than 65 years (age-adjusted DIPSS). Risk factors were assigned score values based on hazard ratios (HRs). Risk categories were low, intermediate-1, intermediate-2, and high in both models. Survival was estimated by the HR. When shifting to the next risk category, the HR was 4.13 for low risk, 4.61 for intermediate-1, and 2.54 for intermediate-2 according to DIPSS; 3.97 for low risk, 2.84 for intermediate-1, and 1.81 for intermediate-2 according to the age-adjusted DIPSS. The novelty of these models is the prognostic assessment of patients with PMF anytime during their clinical course, which may be useful for treatment decision-making.

A prospective study of 338 patients with polycythemia vera: the impact of JAK2 (V617F) allele burden and leukocytosis on fibrotic or leukemic disease transformation and vascular complications

We studied the relationship between JAK2 (V617F) mutant allele burden and clinical phenotype, disease progression and survival in patients with polycythemia vera (PV). The percentage of granulocyte mutant alleles was evaluated using a quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction-based allelic discrimination assay. Of the 338 patients enrolled in this prospective study, 320 (94.7%) carried the JAK2 (V617F) mutation. Direct relationships were found between mutant allele burden and hemoglobin concentration (P=0.001), white blood cell count (P=0.001), spleen size (P=0.001) and age-adjusted bone marrow cellularity (P=0.002), while an inverse relationship was found with platelet count (P<0.001). During the study period, eight patients progressed to post-PV myelofibrosis (MF) (all carrying >50% mutant alleles), while 10 patients developed acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The mutant allele burden was significantly related to the risk of developing myelofibrosis (P=0.029) and retained its significant effect also in multivariable analysis (P=0.03). By contrast, the risk of developing AML as well as that of thrombosis was not significantly related to mutant allele burden. Leukocytosis did not affect thrombosis, MF, leukemia or survival. In conclusion, a JAK2 (V617F) allele burden >50% represents a risk factor for progression to MF in PV.

CD30/Ki-1-positive lymphoproliferative disorders of the skin - Clinicopathologic correlation and statistical analysis of 86 cases: A multicentric study from the European organization for research and treatment of cancer cutaneous lymphoma project group

PURPOSE Recently, it has been shown that CD30 antigen expression is associated with a relatively favorable prognosis in primary cutaneous large-cell lymphomas (CLCLs). However, prognostic subsets within the CD30+ group have been difficult to identify due to lack of uniform clinicopathologic and immunophenotypic criteria, limited clinical information, and the inclusion of relatively few patients for statistical analysis in prior studies. To address these problems, we formed a multicentric study group of pathologists and dermatologists to classify and evaluate 92 cases of CD30+ cutaneous lymphoproliferative disorders. PATIENTS AND METHODS An expert panel established consensus diagnoses for 86 CD30+ cutaneous lymphomas. Cases, clinically and histologically classified as lymphomatoid papulosis (LyP), anaplastic large-cell lymphoma (ALCL), nonanaplastic lymphoma, and borderline histology between LyP and ALCL, were then analyzed statistically by univariate, multivariate, and Cox regression model analysis of potential prognostic features. RESULTS Spontaneous regression and age less than 60 years were associated with a favorable prognosis, while extracutaneous disease and age greater than 60 had a poor prognosis. Patients with LyP had the best prognosis, followed by those with primary CD30+ lymphomas, regardless of cytologic type (anaplastic or nonanaplastic). Borderline cases, morphologically indistinguishable from LyP and CD30+ ALCL, had a favorable prognosis, similar to LyP. CONCLUSION Our findings indicate that CD30+ cutaneous lymphoproliferative disorders comprise a spectrum of closely related skin lesions, which can be assigned a relatively favorable or unfavorable prognosis by a combined clinical and pathologic analysis.

Role of Anti-Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Treatment in HCV-Related, Low-Grade, B-Cell, Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma: A Multicenter Italian Experience

PURPOSE Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is endemic in some areas of Northwestern Europe and the United States. HCV has been shown to play a role in the development of both hepatocellular carcinoma and B-cell non-Hodgkins lymphoma (B-NHL). The biologic mechanisms underlying the lymphomagenic activity of the virus so far are under investigation. In this study, the role of antiviral (anti-HCV) treatment in B-NHL associated with HCV infection is evaluated. PATIENTS AND METHODS Thirteen patients with histologically proven low-grade B-NHL characterized by an indolent course (ie, doubling time no less than 1 year, no bulky disease) and carrying HCV infection were enrolled on the study. All patients underwent antiviral treatment alone with pegilated interferon and ribavirin. Response assessment took place at 6 and 12 months. RESULTS Of the twelve assessable patients, seven (58%) achieved complete response and two (16%) partial hematologic response at 14.1 +/- 9.7 months (range, 2 to 24 months, median follow-up, 14 months), while two had stable disease with only one patient experiencing progression of disease. Hematologic responses (complete and partial, 75%) were highly significantly associated to clearance or decrease in serum HCV viral load following treatment (P = .005). Virologic response was more likely to be seen in HCV genotype 2 (P = .035), while hematologic response did not correlate with the viral genotype. Treatment-related toxicity did not cause discontinuation of therapy in all but two patients, one of whom, however, achieved complete response. CONCLUSION This experience strongly provides a role for antiviral treatment in patients affected by HCV-related, low-grade, B-cell NHL.

Prognostic factors for thrombosis, myelofibrosis, and leukemia in essential thrombocythemia: a study of 605 patients

The findings from this study on a large series of patients treated according to current clinical practice provide reassurance that essential thrombocythemia is an indolent disorder and affected patients have a long survival. Background Essential thrombocythemia is a chronic myeloproliferative disorder; patients with this disorder have a propensity to develop thrombosis, myelofibrosis, and leukemia. Design and Methods We studied 605 patients with essential thrombocythemia (follow-up 4596 person-years) with the aim of defining prognostic factors for thrombosis, myelofibrosis, and leukemia during follow-up. Results Sixty-six patients (11%) developed thrombosis with a 10-year risk of 14%. Age >60 years (p<0.001) and a history of thrombosis (p=0.03) were independent risk factors for thrombosis. Progression to myelofibrosis occurred in 17 patients (2.8%) with a 10-year risk of 3.9%. Anemia at diagnosis of essential thrombocythemia was significantly correlated (p<0.001) with progression to myelofibrosis. Leukemia occurred in 14 patients (2.3%) at a median time of 11 years after the diagnosis of essential thrombocythemia; the risk was 2.6% at 10 years. Age >60 years (p=0.02) was significantly correlated with the development of leukemia. Cytotoxic treatment did not imply a higher risk of leukemia. At the time of the analysis, 64 of the 605 patients (10.6%) had died. The 10-year probability of survival was 88%, with a median survival of 22.3 years. Age >60 years (p<0.001) and history of thrombosis (p=0.001) were independent risk factors for survival. Conclusions The findings from this study on a large series of patients treated according to current clinical practice provide reassurance that essential thrombocythemia is an indolent disorder and affected patients have a long survival. The main risk is thrombosis, while myelofibrosis and leukemia are rare and late complications.

Impact of the degree of anemia on the outcome of patients with myelodysplastic syndrome and its integration into the WHO classification-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS)

Background Anemia is an established negative prognostic factor in myelodysplastic syndromes but the relationship between its degree and clinical outcome is poorly defined. We, therefore, studied the relationship between severity of anemia and outcome in myelodysplastic syndrome patients. Design and Methods We studied 840 consecutive patients diagnosed with myelodysplastic syndromes at the Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy, and 504 patients seen at the Heinrich-Heine-University Hospital, Düsseldorf, Germany. Hemoglobin levels were monitored longitudinally and analyzed by means of time-dependent Cox’s proportional hazards regression models. Results Hemoglobin levels lower than 9 g/dL in males (HR 5.56, P=0.018) and 8 g/dL in females (HR=5.35, P=0.026) were independently related to reduced overall survival, higher risk of non-leukemic death and cardiac death (P<0.001). Severe anemia, defined as hemoglobin below these thresholds, was found to be as effective as transfusion-dependency in the prognostic assessment. After integrating this definition of severe anemia into the WHO classification-based Prognostic Scoring System, time-dependent regression and landmark analyses showed that the refined model was able to identify risk groups with different survivals at any time during follow up. Conclusions Accounting for severity of anemia through the WHO classification-based Prognostic Scoring System provides an objective criterion for prognostic assessment and implementation of risk-adapted treatment strategies in myelodysplastic syndrome patients.

Clinical Relevance of Bone Marrow Fibrosis and CD34-Positive Cell Clusters in Primary Myelodysplastic Syndromes

PURPOSE We studied bone marrow (BM) histologic abnormalities in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) classified according to WHO criteria to determine their clinical correlates and prognostic value. PATIENTS AND METHODS Three hundred one consecutive patients were retrospectively evaluated for BM fibrosis and CD34 immunoreactivity. Marrow fibrosis was assessed following the European consensus guidelines. RESULTS Moderate to severe BM fibrosis was detected in 17% of cases and was associated with multilineage dysplasia (P = .001), high transfusion requirement (P < .001), and poor-risk cytogenetics (P = .007). CD34+ cell clusters were found in 23% of patients and were associated with WHO categories with excess of blasts (P < .001) and poor-risk cytogenetics (P = .001). In multivariable analysis, BM fibrosis and presence of CD34+ cell clusters had independent negative impact on overall survival (P < .001 and P = .019, respectively) and leukemia-free survival (P < .001 and P = .004, respectively). A hierarchical clustering analysis identified three subsets of patients with distinct clinical features. One cluster consisted mainly of patients with BM fibrosis, multilineage dysplasia, and high transfusion requirement; these individuals had lower overall survival and leukemia-free survival (P = .001 and P < .001, respectively). Within patients stratified according to International Prognostic Scoring System and WHO classification-based Prognostic Scoring System categories, BM fibrosis involved a shift to a one-step more advanced risk group. CONCLUSION BM fibrosis identifies a distinct subgroup of MDS with multilineage dysplasia, high transfusion requirement, and poor prognosis and represents an independent prognostic factor that may be useful in clinical decision making. Furthermore, the presence of CD34+ cell clusters is an independent risk factor for progression to acute leukemia.

Risk stratification based on both disease status and extra-hematologic comorbidities in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome

The incidence of myelodysplastic syndromes increases with age and a high prevalence of co-morbid conditions has been reported in these patients. So far, risk assessment in myelodysplastic syndromes has been mainly based on disease status. We studied the prognostic impact of comorbidity on the natural history of myelodysplastic syndrome with the aim of developing novel tools for risk assessment. The study population included a learning cohort of 840 patients diagnosed with myelodysplastic syndrome in Pavia, Italy, and a validation cohort of 504 patients followed in Duesseldorf, Germany. Information on comorbidity was extracted from detailed review of the patients’ medical charts and laboratory values at diagnosis and during the course of the disease. Univariable and multivariable survival analyses with both fixed and time-dependent covariates were performed using Cox’s proportional hazards regression models. Comorbidity was present in 54% of patients in the learning cohort. Cardiac disease was the most frequent comorbidity and the main cause of non-leukemic death. In multivariable analysis, comorbidity had a significant impact on both non-leukemic death (P=0.01) and overall survival (P=0.02). Cardiac, liver, renal, pulmonary disease and solid tumors were found to independently affect the risk of non-leukemic death. A time-dependent myelodysplastic syndrome-specific comorbidity index (MDS-CI) was developed for predicting the effect of comorbidity on outcome. This identified three groups of patients which showed significantly different probabilities of non-leukemic death (P<0.001) and survival (P=0.005) also in the validation cohort. Landmark survival analyses at fixed time points from diagnosis showed that the MDS-CI can better define the life expectancy of patients with myelodysplastic syndrome stratified according to the WHO-classification based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS).Comorbidities have a significant impact on the outcome of patients with myelodysplastic syndrome. Accounting for both disease status by means of the WPSS and comorbidity through the MDS-CI considerably improves risk stratification in myelodysplastic syndromes.