Paolo Bernasconi

Time-Dependent Prognostic Scoring System for Predicting Survival and Leukemic Evolution in Myelodysplastic Syndromes

PURPOSE The aims of this study were to identify the most significant prognostic factors in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) taking into account both their values at clinical onset and their changes in time and to develop a dynamic model for predicting survival and leukemic evolution that can be applied at any time during the course of the disease. PATIENTS AND METHODS We studied a learning cohort of 426 MDS patients diagnosed at the Department of Hematology, San Matteo Hospital, Pavia, Italy, between 1992 and 2004, and a validation cohort of 739 patients diagnosed at the Heinrich-Heine-University Hospital, Düsseldorf, Germany, between 1982 and 2003. All patients were reclassified according to WHO criteria. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed using Cox models with time-dependent covariates. RESULTS The most important variables for the prognostic model were WHO subgroups, karyotype, and transfusion requirement. We defined a WHO classification-based prognostic scoring system (WPSS) that was able to classify patients into five risk groups showing different survivals (median survival from 12 to 103 months) and probabilities of leukemic evolution (P < .001). WPSS was shown to predict survival and leukemia progression at any time during follow-up (P < .001), and its prognostic value was confirmed in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION WPSS is a dynamic prognostic scoring system that provides an accurate prediction of survival and risk of leukemic evolution in MDS patients at any time during the course of their disease. This time-dependent system seems particularly useful in lower risk patients and may be used for implementing risk-adapted treatment strategies.

Prognostic Factors and Life Expectancy in Myelodysplastic Syndromes Classified According to WHO Criteria: A Basis for Clinical Decision Making

PURPOSE The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the WHO proposal, to assess the role of the main prognostic factors in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs) classified into WHO subgroups, and to estimate mortality (standardized mortality ratio [SMR]) and life expectancy in these groups as a basis for clinical decision making. PATIENTS AND METHODS Four hundred sixty-seven patients who were diagnosed as having de novo MDS at the Division of Hematology, University of Pavia (Pavia, Italy), between 1992 and 2002, were evaluated retrospectively for clinical and hematologic features at diagnosis, overall survival (OS), and progression to leukemia (leukemia-free survival). RESULTS Significant differences in survival were noted between patients with refractory anemia (RA), refractory cytopenia with multilineage dysplasia, RA with excess blasts, type 1 (RAEB-1), and RAEB-2. The effect of demographic factors on OS was observed in MDS patients without excess blasts (age, P = .001; sex, P = .006), as in the general population. The mortality of RA patients 70 years or older did not differ significantly from that of the general population (SMR, 1.62; P = .06). Cytogenetics was the only International Prognostic Scoring System variable showing a prognostic value in MDS classified into WHO subgroups. Transfusion-dependent patients had a significantly shorter survival than patients who did not require transfusions (P < .001). Developing a secondary iron overload significantly affected the survival of transfusion-dependent patients (P = .003). CONCLUSION These data show that the WHO classification of MDSs has a relevant prognostic value. This classification, along with cytogenetics, might be useful in decisions regarding transplantation. MDS with isolated erythroid lineage dysplasia identifies a subset of truly low-risk patients, for whom a conservative approach is advisable.

Prognostic factors for thrombosis, myelofibrosis, and leukemia in essential thrombocythemia: a study of 605 patients

The findings from this study on a large series of patients treated according to current clinical practice provide reassurance that essential thrombocythemia is an indolent disorder and affected patients have a long survival. Background Essential thrombocythemia is a chronic myeloproliferative disorder; patients with this disorder have a propensity to develop thrombosis, myelofibrosis, and leukemia. Design and Methods We studied 605 patients with essential thrombocythemia (follow-up 4596 person-years) with the aim of defining prognostic factors for thrombosis, myelofibrosis, and leukemia during follow-up. Results Sixty-six patients (11%) developed thrombosis with a 10-year risk of 14%. Age >60 years (p<0.001) and a history of thrombosis (p=0.03) were independent risk factors for thrombosis. Progression to myelofibrosis occurred in 17 patients (2.8%) with a 10-year risk of 3.9%. Anemia at diagnosis of essential thrombocythemia was significantly correlated (p<0.001) with progression to myelofibrosis. Leukemia occurred in 14 patients (2.3%) at a median time of 11 years after the diagnosis of essential thrombocythemia; the risk was 2.6% at 10 years. Age >60 years (p=0.02) was significantly correlated with the development of leukemia. Cytotoxic treatment did not imply a higher risk of leukemia. At the time of the analysis, 64 of the 605 patients (10.6%) had died. The 10-year probability of survival was 88%, with a median survival of 22.3 years. Age >60 years (p<0.001) and history of thrombosis (p=0.001) were independent risk factors for survival. Conclusions The findings from this study on a large series of patients treated according to current clinical practice provide reassurance that essential thrombocythemia is an indolent disorder and affected patients have a long survival. The main risk is thrombosis, while myelofibrosis and leukemia are rare and late complications.

Report from the European Myeloma Network on interphase FISH in multiple myeloma and related disorders

The European Myeloma Network has organized two workshops on fluorescence in situ hybridization in multiple myeloma. The first aimed to identify specific indications and consensus technical approaches of current practice. A second workshop followed a quality control exercise in which 21 laboratories analyzed diagnostic cases of purified plasma cells for recurrent abnormalities. The summary report was discussed at the EHA Myeloma Scientific Working Group Meeting 2010. During the quality control exercise, there was acceptable agreement on more than 1,000 tests. The conclusions from the exercise were that the primary clinical applications for FISH analysis were for newly diagnosed cases of MM or frank relapse cases. A range of technical recommendations included: 1) material should be part of the first draw of the aspirate; 2) samples should be sent at suitable times to allow for the lengthy processing procedure; 3) most importantly, PCs must be purified or specifically identified; 4) positive cut-off levels should be relatively conservative: 10% for fusion or break-apart probes, 20% for numerical abnormalities; 5) informative probes should be combined to best effect; 6) in specialist laboratories, a single experienced analyst is considered adequate; 7) at least 100 PC should be scored; 8) essential abnormalities to test for are t(4;14), t(14;16) and 17p13 deletions; 9) suitable commercial probes should be available for clinically relevant abnormalities; 10) the clinical report should be expressed clearly and must state the percentage of PC involved and the method used for identification; 11) a retrospective European based FISH data bank linked to clinical data should be generated; and 12) prospective analysis should be centralized for upcoming trials based on the recommendations made. The European Myeloma Network aims to build on these recommendations to establish standards for a common European data base to define subgroups with prognostic significance.

Adverse events occurring during bone marrow or peripheral blood progenitor cell infusion: analysis of 126 cases

Bone marrow (BM) and/or peripheral blood progenitor cells (PBPC) given after high-dose chemo-radiotherapy are commonly cryopreserved. Re-infusion of the thawed product can cause cardiovascular and other complications. We compared two groups of adult patients receiving autologous BM or PBPC transplant to assess the incidence of adverse events occurring during infusion. Fifty-one patients received BM, and 75 PBPC. The two groups were comparable in respect of age, total volume infused, quantity of dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) and number of polymorphonuclear neutrophils. Patients receiving PBPC had a higher number of nucleated cells per kg of body weight; those in the BM group received a significantly greater quantity of red cells. Non-cardiovascular complications occurred in 19% and 8% of patients rescued by BM and PBPC respectively. The incidence of hypertension was 21% in the BM and 36% in the PBPC group. Asymptomatic hypotension was more frequent in PBPC patients (P < 0.001). bradyarrhythmia was noticed in two of 75 pbpc patients and in 14 of 51 bm patients (P < 0.001). in the former group one patient had heart block; he died of renal failure 10 days later. bradycardia and hemoglobinuria were more common in patients receiving bm where a higher concentration of red cells was present (P < 0.001). since bradyarrhythmias may be a life-threatening complication we advise continuous careful monitoring during infusion of thawed bm. the strong correlation between bradycardia and red blood cell contamination suggests the use of purified products with a very low red cell content.

Flow cytometry evaluation of erythroid and myeloid dysplasia in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome.

The purpose of this study was to develop a flow cytometric approach to the evaluation of marrow dysplasia in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). We first studied a cohort of 103 MDS patients as well as 46 pathological and healthy controls. Flow cytometry data were expressed as percentage of positive cells. Analysis of erythroid cells showed higher proportions of immature cells (P<0.001) and decreased levels of CD71 expression on nucleated red cells (P=0.02) in MDS. Analysis of myeloid cells showed lower proportions of CD10+ and higher proportions of CD56+ granulocytes (P<0.001), and increased ratios of immature to mature cells (P=0.007). Since no single immunophenotype could accurately differentiate MDS from other conditions, we used discriminant analysis for generating erythroid and myeloid classification functions using combinations of immunophenotypic parameters. These functions were prospectively validated in a testing cohort of 69 MDS patients and 46 pathological controls. A diagnosis of MDS was obtained in 60/69 cases (87%). No false-positive results were noticed among controls. Significant correlations between values of these functions and both degree of morphological dysplasia and the International Prognostic Scoring System were found. These findings indicate that flow cytometry evaluation of marrow dysplasia is feasible and may be useful in the work-up of individual MDS patients.

A dynamic prognostic model to predict survival in post–polycythemia vera myelofibrosis

Post-polycythemia vera myelofibrosis (post-PV MF) is a late evolution of PV. In 647 patients with PV, we found that leukocytosis leukocyte count>(15x10(9)/L) at diagnosis is a risk factor for the evolution of post-PV MF. In a series of 68 patients who developed post-PV MF, median survival was 5.7 years. Hemoglobin level less than 100 g/L (10 g/dL) at diagnosis of post-PV MF was an independent risk factor for survival. The course of post-PV MF, however, is a dynamic process that implies a progressive worsening of clinical parameters. Using a multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression with time-dependent covariates, we found that a dynamic score based on hemoglobin level less than 100 g/L (10 g/dL), platelet count less than 100x10(9)/L, and leukocyte count more than 30x10(9)/L is useful to predict survival at any time from diagnosis of post-PV MF. The resulting hazard ratio of the score was 4.2 (95% CI: 2.4-7.7; P<.001), meaning a 4.2-fold worsening of survival for each risk factor acquired during follow up. In conclusion, leukocytosis at diagnosis of PV is a risk factor for evolution in post-PV MF. A dynamic score based on hemoglobin level, and platelet and leukocyte count predicts survival at any time from diagnosis of post-PV MF.

Predictive factors for the outcome of allogeneic transplantation in patients with MDS stratified according to the revised IPSS-R

Approximately one-third of patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) receiving allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) are cured by this treatment. Treatment failure may be due to transplant complications or relapse. To identify predictive factors for transplantation outcome, we studied 519 patients with MDS or oligoblastic acute myeloid leukemia (AML, <30% marrow blasts) who received an allogeneic HSCT and were reported to the Gruppo Italiano Trapianto di Midollo Osseo registry between 2000 and 2011. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards regression. High-risk category, as defined by the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R), and monosomal karyotype were independently associated with relapse and lower overall survival after transplantation. On the other hand, older recipient age and high hematopoietic cell transplantation-comorbidity index (HCT-CI) were independent predictors of nonrelapse mortality. Accounting for various combinations of patients age, IPSS-R category, monosomal karyotype, and HCT-CI, the 5-year probability of survival after allogeneic HSCT ranged from 0% to 94%. This study indicates that IPSS-R risk category and monosomal karyotype are important factors predicting transplantation failure both in MDS and oligoblastic AML. In addition, it reinforces the concept that allogeneic HSCT offers optimal eradication of myelodysplastic hematopoiesis when the procedure is performed before MDS patients progress to advanced disease stages.

World Health Organization classification in combination with cytogenetic markers improves the prognostic stratification of patients with de novo primary myelodysplastic syndromes

This study correlated chromosomal defects with French–American–British (FAB)/World Health Organization (WHO) classification subtypes, proposed a revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) cytogenetic grouping; and established which classification, when used with the IPSS cytogenetic categories, best predicted clinical outcome in the myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). A higher prevalence of chromosomal defects and distinct defects were observed in patients with multi‐lineage dysplasia and a blast cell percentage >10%. Abnormalities of the long arm of chromosome 3, del(7)(q31q35), trisomy 8, del(11)(q14q23), del(12p) and 20q‐ could be segregated from their respective IPSS cytogenetic categories and used to develop new cytogenetic subgroups. Clinical parameters, FAB/WHO classification, IPSS score and standard or revised cytogenetic categories were statistically relevant for overall survival (OS) and progression‐free intervals (PFI) and were included within five distinct multivariate models compared by the Akaike Information Criterion. To predict OS, the best models included age, WHO classification and standard or revised IPSS cytogenetic categories; to predict PFI, the best model included the same variables and revised cytogenetic categories. In conclusion, (i) the WHO classification was associated with a more homogeneous cytogenetic pattern than the FAB classification, (ii) WHO classification and standard/revised IPSS cytogenetic categories were much more effective than IPSS for predicting MDS clinical outcome, (iii) revised cytogenetic subgroups predicted PFI more effectively than standard categories.

Molecular pathways in myelodysplastic syndromes and acute myeloid leukemia: relationships and distinctions–a review

The myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) are both hematopoietic stem cell disorders. However, while leukemic stem cells have been revealed by clonal tracking experiments, dysplastic stem cells have never been demonstrated by xeno‐transplantation assays because of poor engraftment problems. These engraftment difficulties may be due to the unique nature of MDS genetic lesions that are truly able to recapitulate the disease phenotype. MDS and AML of younger patients harbour clonal yet different chromosomal markers, whereas MDS and AML of the elderly present similar defects. Potential involvement of tumor suppressor genes in MDS has been hypothesized but never confirmed, while cooperation between class I and class II mutations has been identified in AML. The reciprocal interactions between stromal cells and neoplastic clones are disrupted in both MDS and AML. In early MDS, stromal and neoplastic cells produce high levels of inhibitory cytokines, whereas in advanced MDS and AML they produce high levels of anti‐apoptotic molecules.