Marisa N. C. Litz

Multivariate Models of Adult Pacific Salmon Returns

Most modeling and statistical approaches encourage simplicity, yet ecological processes are often complex, as they are influenced by numerous dynamic environmental and biological factors. Pacific salmon abundance has been highly variable over the last few decades and most forecasting models have proven inadequate, primarily because of a lack of understanding of the processes affecting variability in survival. Better methods and data for predicting the abundance of returning adults are therefore required to effectively manage the species. We combined 31 distinct indicators of the marine environment collected over an 11-year period into a multivariate analysis to summarize and predict adult spring Chinook salmon returns to the Columbia River in 2012. In addition to forecasts, this tool quantifies the strength of the relationship between various ecological indicators and salmon returns, allowing interpretation of ecosystem processes. The relative importance of indicators varied, but a few trends emerged. Adult returns of spring Chinook salmon were best described using indicators of bottom-up ecological processes such as composition and abundance of zooplankton and fish prey as well as measures of individual fish, such as growth and condition. Local indicators of temperature or coastal upwelling did not contribute as much as large-scale indicators of temperature variability, matching the spatial scale over which salmon spend the majority of their ocean residence. Results suggest that effective management of Pacific salmon requires multiple types of data and that no single indicator can represent the complex early-ocean ecology of salmon.

Ontogenetic shifts in the diets of juvenile Chinook Salmon: new insight from stable isotopes and fatty acids

Variations in marine prey availability and nutritional quality can affect juvenile salmon growth and survival during early ocean residence. Salmon growth, and hence survival, may be related to the onset of piscivory, but there is limited knowledge on the interplay between the prey field, environment, and salmon ontogeny. Subyearling Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and their potential prey were sampled in coastal waters off Willapa Bay, USA to explore this issue. Three seasonal prey assemblages were identified, occurring in spring (May), early summer (June – July), and late summer (August – September). The onset of piscivory, based on salmon stomach contents, fatty acids, and stable isotopes occurred later in 2011 compared to 2012, and coincided with the appearance of Northern Anchovy (Engraulis mordax). Salmon fork length (FL) and carbon isotope values (δ13C) increased with a fatty acid biomarker for marine phytoplankton and decreased with a freshwater marker, indicating dietary carbon sources changed as salmon emigrated from the Columbia River. Salmon FL also increased with nitrogen isotope ratios (δ15N), trophic position, and a fatty acid marker for piscivory – a consequence of the ontogenetic shift in diet to fish. Salmon grew faster and obtained larger size and condition by September 2011 compared to 2012, which was related to inter-annual differences in ocean conditions and the duration over which Northern Anchovy were available. Our results support the idea that juvenile salmon growth depends on the onset and duration of piscivory, suggesting both of these factors may be important components of lifetime growth and fitness.

Seasonal distribution of late larval and juvenile rockfish (Sebastes spp.) and associated environmental conditions off Oregon and Washington: new insights based on genetics: Supp. Figs. 1 and 2

1 Coastal Oregon Marine Experiment Station Oregon State University 2030 SE Marine Science Drive Newport, Oregon 97365 Present address for contact author: Biology Department University of North Georgia 3820 Mundy Mill Road Oakwood, Georgia 30566 2 Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies Oregon State University 2030 SE Marine Science Drive Newport, Oregon 97365 3 Fish Ecology Division Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA 2030 S Marine Science Drive Newport, Oregon 97365-5296