Marjory Moodie

The global obesity pandemic: shaped by global drivers and local environments

The simultaneous increases in obesity in almost all countries seem to be driven mainly by changes in the global food system, which is producing more processed, affordable, and effectively marketed food than ever before. This passive overconsumption of energy leading to obesity is a predictable outcome of market economies predicated on consumption-based growth. The global food system drivers interact with local environmental factors to create a wide variation in obesity prevalence between populations. Within populations, the interactions between environmental and individual factors, including genetic makeup, explain variability in body size between individuals. However, even with this individual variation, the epidemic has predictable patterns in subpopulations. In low-income countries, obesity mostly affects middle-aged adults (especially women) from wealthy, urban environments; whereas in high-income countries it affects both sexes and all ages, but is disproportionately greater in disadvantaged groups. Unlike other major causes of preventable death and disability, such as tobacco use, injuries, and infectious diseases, there are no exemplar populations in which the obesity epidemic has been reversed by public health measures. This absence increases the urgency for evidence-creating policy action, with a priority on reduction of the supply-side drivers.

Changing the future of obesity: science, policy, and action

The global obesity epidemic has been escalating for four decades, yet sustained prevention efforts have barely begun. An emerging science that uses quantitative models has provided key insights into the dynamics of this epidemic, and enabled researchers to combine evidence and to calculate the effect of behaviours, interventions, and policies at several levels--from individual to population. Forecasts suggest that high rates of obesity will affect future population health and economics. Energy gap models have quantified the association of changes in energy intake and expenditure with weight change, and have documented the effect of higher intake on obesity prevalence. Empirical evidence that shows interventions are effective is limited but expanding. We identify several cost-effective policies that governments should prioritise for implementation. Systems science provides a framework for organising the complexity of forces driving the obesity epidemic and has important implications for policy makers. Many parties (such as governments, international organisations, the private sector, and civil society) need to contribute complementary actions in a coordinated approach. Priority actions include policies to improve the food and built environments, cross-cutting actions (such as leadership, healthy public policies, and monitoring), and much greater funding for prevention programmes. Increased investment in population obesity monitoring would improve the accuracy of forecasts and evaluations. The integration of actions within existing systems into both health and non-health sectors (trade, agriculture, transport, urban planning, and development) can greatly increase the influence and sustainability of policies. We call for a sustained worldwide effort to monitor, prevent, and control obesity.

Child and adolescent obesity: part of a bigger picture

The prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity has risen substantially worldwide in less than one generation. In the USA, the average weight of a child has risen by more than 5 kg within three decades, to a point where a third of the countrys children are overweight or obese. Some low-income and middle-income countries have reported similar or more rapid rises in child obesity, despite continuing high levels of undernutrition. Nutrition policies to tackle child obesity need to promote healthy growth and household nutrition security and protect children from inducements to be inactive or to overconsume foods of poor nutritional quality. The promotion of energy-rich and nutrient-poor products will encourage rapid weight gain in early childhood and exacerbate risk factors for chronic disease in all children, especially those showing poor linear growth. Whereas much public health effort has been expended to restrict the adverse marketing of breastmilk substitutes, similar effort now needs to be expanded and strengthened to protect older children from increasingly sophisticated marketing of sedentary activities and energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods and beverages. To meet this challenge, the governance of food supply and food markets should be improved and commercial activities subordinated to protect and promote childrens health.

Efficacy and safety of very early mobilisation within 24 h of stroke onset (AVERT): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND Early mobilisation after stroke is thought to contribute to the effects of stroke-unit care; however, the intervention is poorly defined and not underpinned by strong evidence. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of frequent, higher dose, very early mobilisation with usual care after stroke. METHODS We did this parallel-group, single-blind, randomised controlled trial at 56 acute stroke units in five countries. Patients (aged ≥18 years) with ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke, first or recurrent, who met physiological criteria were randomly assigned (1:1), via a web-based computer generated block randomisation procedure (block size of six), to receive usual stroke-unit care alone or very early mobilisation in addition to usual care. Treatment with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator was allowed. Randomisation was stratified by study site and stroke severity. Patients, outcome assessors, and investigators involved in trial and data management were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was a favourable outcome 3 months after stroke, defined as a modified Rankin Scale score of 0-2. We did analysis on an intention-to-treat basis. The trial is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, number ACTRN12606000185561. FINDINGS Between July 18, 2006, and Oct 16, 2014, we randomly assigned 2104 patients to receive either very early mobilisation (n=1054) or usual care (n=1050); 2083 (99%) patients were included in the 3 month follow-up assessment. 965 (92%) patients were mobilised within 24 h in the very early mobilisation group compared with 623 (59%) patients in the usual care group. Fewer patients in the very early mobilisation group had a favourable outcome than those in the usual care group (n=480 [46%] vs n=525 [50%]; adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·73, 95% CI 0·59-0·90; p=0·004). 88 (8%) patients died in the very early mobilisation group compared with 72 (7%) patients in the usual care group (OR 1·34, 95% CI 0·93-1·93, p=0·113). 201 (19%) patients in the very early mobilisation group and 208 (20%) of those in the usual care group had a non-fatal serious adverse event, with no reduction in immobility-related complications with very early mobilisation. INTERPRETATION First mobilisation took place within 24 h for most patients in this trial. The higher dose, very early mobilisation protocol was associated with a reduction in the odds of a favourable outcome at 3 months. Early mobilisation after stroke is recommended in many clinical practice guidelines worldwide, and our findings should affect clinical practice by refining present guidelines; however, clinical recommendations should be informed by future analyses of dose-response associations. FUNDING National Health and Medical Research Council, Singapore Health, Chest Heart and Stroke Scotland, Northern Ireland Chest Heart and Stroke, UK Stroke Association, National Institute of Health Research.

A new approach to assessing the health benefit from obesity interventions in children and adolescents: The assessing cost-effectiveness in obesity project

Objective:To report on a new modelling approach developed for the assessing cost-effectiveness in obesity (ACE-Obesity) project and the likely population health benefit and strength of evidence for 13 potential obesity prevention interventions in children and adolescents in Australia.Methods:We used the best available evidence, including evidence from non-traditional epidemiological study designs, to determine the health benefits as body mass index (BMI) units saved and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) saved. We developed new methods to model the impact of behaviours on BMI post-intervention where this was not measured and the impacts on DALYs over the childs lifetime (on the assumption that changes in BMI were maintained into adulthood). A working group of stakeholders provided input into decisions on the selection of interventions, the assumptions for modelling and the strength of the evidence.Results:The likely health benefit varied considerably, as did the strength of the evidence from which that health benefit was calculated. The greatest health benefit is likely to be achieved by the ‘Reduction of TV advertising of high fat and/or high sugar foods and drinks to children’, ‘Laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding’ and the ‘multi-faceted school-based programme with an active physical education component’ interventions.Conclusions:The use of consistent methods and common health outcome measures enables valid comparison of the potential impact of interventions, but comparisons must take into account the strength of the evidence used. Other considerations, including cost-effectiveness and acceptability to stakeholders, will be presented in future ACE-Obesity papers. Information gaps identified include the need for new and more effective initiatives for the prevention of overweight and obesity and for better evaluations of public health interventions.

Cost-Effectiveness of Surgically Induced Weight Loss for the Management of Type 2 Diabetes: Modeled Lifetime Analysis

OBJECTIVE To estimate the cost-effectiveness of surgically induced weight loss relative to conventional therapy for the management of recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes in class I/II obese patients. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This study builds on a within-trial cost-efficacy analysis. The analysis compares the lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) between the two intervention groups. Intervention costs were extrapolated based on observed resource utilization during the trial. The proportion of patients in each intervention group with remission of diabetes at 2 years was the same as that observed in the trial. Health care costs for patients with type 2 diabetes and outcome variables required to derive estimates of QALYs were sourced from published literature. A health care system perspective was adopted. Costs and outcomes were discounted annually at 3%. Costs are presented in 2006 Australian dollars (AUD) (currency exchange: 1 AUD = 0.74 USD). RESULTS The mean number of years in diabetes remission over a lifetime was 11.4 for surgical therapy patients and 2.1 for conventional therapy patients. Over the remainder of their lifetime, surgical and conventional therapy patients lived 15.7 and 14.5 discounted QALYs, respectively. The mean discounted lifetime costs were 98,900 AUD per surgical therapy patient and 101,400 AUD per conventional therapy patient. Relative to conventional therapy, surgically induced weight loss was associated with a mean health care saving of 2,400 AUD and 1.2 additional QALYs per patient. CONCLUSIONS Surgically induced weight loss is a dominant intervention (it both saves health care costs and generates health benefits) for managing recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes in class I/II obese patients in Australia.

Cost-Efficacy of Surgically Induced Weight Loss for the Management of Type 2 Diabetes A randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE To determine the within-trial cost-efficacy of surgical therapy relative to conventional therapy for achieving remission of recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes in class I and II obese patients. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Efficacy results were derived from a 2-year randomized controlled trial. A health sector perspective was adopted, and within-trial intervention costs included gastric banding surgery, mitigation of complications, outpatient medical consultations, medical investigations, pathology, weight loss therapies, and medication. Resource use was measured based on data drawn from a trial database and patient medical records and valued based on private hospital costs and government schedules in 2006 Australian dollars (AUD). An incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken. RESULTS Mean 2-year intervention costs per patient were 13,400 AUD for surgical therapy and 3,400 AUD for conventional therapy, with laparoscopic adjustable gastric band (LAGB) surgery accounting for 85% of the difference. Outpatient medical consultation costs were three times higher for surgical patients, whereas medication costs were 1.5 times higher for conventional patients. The cost differences were primarily in the first 6 months of the trial. Relative to conventional therapy, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for surgical therapy was 16,600 AUD per case of diabetes remitted (currency exchange: 1 AUD = 0.74 USD). CONCLUSIONS Surgical therapy appears to be a cost-effective option for managing type 2 diabetes in class I and II obese patients.

The health-related quality of life of overweight and obese adolescents - a study measuring body mass index and adolescent-reported perceptions

OBJECTIVE To determine whether the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of overweight and obese adolescents is significantly lower than that of their healthy weight counterparts, and if so, whether any demographic trends exist and the relative contribution of each HRQOL dimension. METHODS Cross-sectional analysis of 2,890 students participating in the Pacific Obesity Prevention in Communities Project, Australia. HRQOL was measured using the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL) adolescent module. Adolescent height and weight were measured by trained field workers and weight categories assigned according to the International Obesity Task Force BMI cut-off points for adolescents. Multivariate linear regression analyses were undertaken to estimate the mean differences in HRQOL scores between (i) overweight and healthy weight, and (ii) obese and healthy weight adolescents, whilst adjusting for gender, age and socioeconomic status quartile. RESULTS The sample had a mean age of 14.6 years (range 11-18), 56.2% boys, 20.2% overweight and 6.3% obese. Higher weight status categories were associated with lower HRQOL scores (mean PedsQL scores: healthy weight: 79.1, overweight: 77.7 and obese: 73.7). Relative to the healthy weight group, and after adjustments, overweight and obese adolescents reported 1.44 (p = 0.005) and 5.55 (p < 0.001) lower HRQOL summary scores, respectively. Overweight adolescents reported significantly lower scores in physical and social functioning, whilst obese adolescents reported significantly lower scores in the same dimensions plus emotional functioning. Girls and younger (< 15 years) adolescents reported greater mean negative HRQOL differences associated with excess weight. CONCLUSIONS Overweight and obesity in adolescents are associated with significantly lower HRQOL scores.

Economic evaluation alongside a Phase II, multi-centre, randomised controlled trial of very early rehabilitation after stroke (AVERT)

Background/Purpose: The effectiveness and costs of very early rehabilitation after stroke are unknown. This study assessed the cost effectiveness of very early mobilisation in addition to standard care (VEM) compared with standard care alone (SC). Methods: Cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a phase II, multi-centre, randomised controlled trial (RCT) with blinded outcome assessments. Less than 24 h after stroke, patients were recruited from two stroke units and randomised to receive VEM or SC. The intervention continued until discharge or 14 days, whichever was sooner. The efficacy measure was a dichotomised modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 3 months with mRS ≤2 representing good outcome. Costs were determined from medical records and patient interviews at 3, 6 and 12 months. National average (where available) or local costs were applied for the reference year 2004. Differences in mean total costs at 3 and 12 months were tested using t test assuming unequal variances. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated and probabilistic uncertainty analysis was undertaken. Results: The sample consisted of 38 VEM and 33 SC patients. A trend for good outcome with VEM compared to SC was found (adjusted OR 4.10, 95% CI 0.99–16.88, p = 0.051). Patients receiving VEM incurred significantly less costs at 3 months (AUD 13,559) compared with SC (AUD 21,860; p = 0.02). This difference in mean per patient total cost persisted at the 12-month assessment (VEM: AUD 17,564; SC: AUD 29,750; p = 0.03). VEM was found to be a ‘dominant’ (more effective, less cost) intervention when compared to SC at 3 months. Conclusion: These findings provide preliminary evidence that VEM is likely to be cost-effective. A large RCT is currently underway to confirm the cost effectiveness of VEM.

Trial Application of a Model of Resource Utilization, Costs, and Outcomes for Stroke (MORUCOS) to Assist Priority Setting in Stroke

Background and Purpose— Cost-effectiveness data for stroke interventions are limited, and comparisons between studies are confounded by methodological inconsistencies. The aim of this study was to trial the use of the intervention module of the economic model, a Model of Resource Utilization, Costs, and Outcomes for Stroke (MORUCOS) to facilitate evaluation and ranking of the options. Methods— The approach involves using an economic model together with added secondary considerations. A consistent approach was taken using standard economic evaluation methods. Data from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS) were used to model “current practice” (base case), against which 2 interventions were compared. A 2-stage process was used to measure benefit: health gains (expressed in disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) and filter analysis. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated, and probabilistic uncertainty analysis was undertaken. Results— Aspirin, a low-cost intervention applicable to a large number of stroke patients (9153 first-ever cases), resulted in modest health benefits (946 DALYs saved) and a mean ICER (based on incidence costs) of US