Mark A. Delucchi

Using Attributional Life Cycle Assessment to Estimate Climate-Change Mitigation Benefits Misleads Policy Makers

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is generally described as a tool for environmental decision making. Results from attributional LCA (ALCA), the most commonly used LCA method, often are presented in a way that suggests that policy decisions based on these results will yield the quantitative benefits estimated by ALCA. For example, ALCAs of biofuels are routinely used to suggest that the implementation of one alternative (say, a biofuel) will cause an X% change in greenhouse gas emissions, compared with a baseline (typically gasoline). However, because of several simplifications inherent in ALCA, the method, in fact, is not predictive of real‐world impacts on climate change, and hence the usual quantitative interpretation of ALCA results is not valid. A conceptually superior approach, consequential LCA (CLCA), avoids many of the limitations of ALCA, but because it is meant to model actual changes in the real world, CLCA results are scenario dependent and uncertain. These limitations mean that even the best practical CLCAs cannot produce definitive quantitative estimates of actual environmental outcomes. Both forms of LCA, however, can yield valuable insights about potential environmental effects, and CLCA can support robust decision making. By openly recognizing the limitations and understanding the appropriate uses of LCA as discussed here, practitioners and researchers can help policy makers implement policies that are less likely to have perverse effects and more likely to lead to effective environmental policies, including climate mitigation strategies.

Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land‐use and energy experts, land‐use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life‐cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state‐of‐the‐art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end‐use efficiency, improved land carbon‐stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small‐scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100 EJ: high agreement; 100–300 EJ: medium agreement; above 300 EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245 EJ yr−1 to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large‐scale deployment (>200 EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2° degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land‐intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.

An analysis of the retail and lifecycle cost of battery-powered electric vehicles

Regulators, policy analysts, automobile manufacturers, environmental groups, and others are debating the merits of policies regarding the development and use of battery-powered electric vehicles (BPEVs). At the crux of this debate is lifecycle cost: the annualized initial vehicle cost, plus annual operating and maintenance costs, plus battery replacement costs. To address this issue of cost, we have developed a detailed model of the performance, energy use, manufacturing costs, retail costs, and lifecycle cost of electric vehicles and comparable gasoline internal-combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). This effort is an improvement over most previous studies of electric vehicle costs because instead of assuming important parameter values for such variables as vehicle efficiency and battery costs, we model these values in detail. We find that in order for electric vehicles to be cost-competitive with gasoline ICEVs, batteries must have a lower manufacturing cost, and a longer life, than the best lithium-ion and nickel-metal hydride batteries we modeled. We believe that it is most important to reduce the battery manufacturing cost to

THE HEALTH COSTS OF MOTOR-VEHICLE-RELATED AIR POLLUTION

100/kWh or less, attain a cycle life of 1200 or more and a calendar life of 12 years or more, and aim for a specific energy of around 100 Wh/kg.

100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States

The purpose of this paper is to show that the possibility cannot be ruled out that ozone is linked to mortality and chronic illness, effects which are costly and would considerable raise the costs of ozone pollution. Particulates are the most damaging pollutant and diesel vehicles cause mare damages per mile than do gasoline vehicles. The results of this paper suggest that emphasis should be placed on the regulation of particulates.Emissions from motor vehicles and related sources, such as petroleum refineries, have a variety of effects on human health. The effects can be as innocuous as itchy eyes, or as serious as chronic lung disease or heart failure. This chapter reviews recent studies of the health effects of air pollution related to use of motor vehicles in the U.S., and also attempts to quantify the impacts. Although the focus is on physical health effects, the authors also review how to combine the estimates of physical effects with their estimated monetary cost to produce an estimate of the total social cost of the health effects of motor vehicle pollution. An overview of motor vehicle emissions and exposure to motor-vehicle related air pollution is provided. The health effects of exposure to motor-vehicle-related air pollution are then discussed. The chapter concludes with a brief summary of the valuation of health effects and of 2 recent estimates of total social cost of the health effects of motor vehicle pollution.

Impacts of Biofuels on Climate Change, Water Use, and Land Use

This study presents roadmaps for each of the 50 United States to convert their all-purpose energy systems (for electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) to ones powered entirely by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). The plans contemplate 80–85% of existing energy replaced by 2030 and 100% replaced by 2050. Conversion would reduce each states end-use power demand by a mean of ∼39.3% with ∼82.4% of this due to the efficiency of electrification and the rest due to end-use energy efficiency improvements. Year 2050 end-use U.S. all-purpose load would be met with ∼30.9% onshore wind, ∼19.1% offshore wind, ∼30.7% utility-scale photovoltaics (PV), ∼7.2% rooftop PV, ∼7.3% concentrated solar power (CSP) with storage, ∼1.25% geothermal power, ∼0.37% wave power, ∼0.14% tidal power, and ∼3.01% hydroelectric power. Based on a parallel grid integration study, an additional 4.4% and 7.2% of power beyond that needed for annual loads would be supplied by CSP with storage and solar thermal for heat, respectively, for peaking and grid stability. Over all 50 states, converting would provide ∼3.9 million 40-year construction jobs and ∼2.0 million 40-year operation jobs for the energy facilities alone, the sum of which would outweigh the ∼3.9 million jobs lost in the conventional energy sector. Converting would also eliminate ∼62 000 (19 000–115 000) U.S. air pollution premature mortalities per year today and ∼46 000 (12 000–104 000) in 2050, avoiding ∼

Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes

600 (

Emissions of Nitrous Oxide and Methane from Conventional and Alternative Fuel Motor Vehicles

85–

Fuel Economy: The Case for Market Failure

2400) bil. per year (2013 dollars) in 2050, equivalent to ∼3.6 (0.5–14.3) percent of the 2014 U.S. gross domestic product. Converting would further eliminate ∼

An assessment of electric vehicles: technology, infrastructure requirements, greenhouse-gas emissions, petroleum use, material use, lifetime cost, consumer acceptance and policy initiatives.

3.3 (1.9–7.1) tril. per year in 2050 global warming costs to the world due to U.S. emissions. These plans will result in each person in the U.S. in 2050 saving ∼