Timothy Lipman

Emissions of Nitrous Oxide and Methane from Conventional and Alternative Fuel Motor Vehicles

This paper provides estimates of emissions of two important but often not well-characterized greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to transportation energy use: methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The paper focuses on emissions of CH4 and N2O from motor vehicles because unlike emissions of CO2, which are relatively easy to estimate, emissions of CH4 and N2O are a function of many complex aspects of combustion dynamics and of the type of emission control systems used. They therefore cannot be derived easily and instead must be determined through the use of published emission factors for each combination of fuel, end-use technology, combustion conditions, and emission control system. Furthermore, emissions of CH4 and N2O may be particularly important with regard to the relative CO2-equivalent GHG emissions of the use of alternative transportation fuels, in comparison with the use of conventional fuels. By analyzing a database of emission estimates, we develop emission factors for N2O and CH4 from conventional vehicles, in order to supplement recent EPA and IPCC estimates, and we estimate relative emissions of N2O and CH4 from different alternative fuel passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and heavy-duty vehicles.

RENEWABLE ENERGY: A VIABLE CHOICE

Renewable energy systems—notably solar, wind, and biomass—are poised to play a major role in the energy economy and in improving the environmental quality of the United States. California’s energy crisis focused attention on and raised fundamental questions about regional and national energy strategies. Prior to the crisis in California, there had been too little attention given to appropriate power plant siting issues and to bottlenecks in transmission and distribution. A strong national energy policy is now needed. Renewable technologies have become both economically viable and environmentally preferable alternatives to fossil fuels. Last year the United States spent more than

Reducing greenhouse emissions and fuel consumption: sustainable approaches for surface transportation

600 billion on energy, with U.S. oil imports climbing to

Chapter Two – Lifetime Cost of Battery, Fuel-Cell, and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

120 billion, or nearly

Strategy for Overcoming Cost Hurdles of Plug-In-Hybrid Battery in California: Integrating Post-Vehicle Secondary Use Values

440 of imported oil for every American. In the long term, even a natural gasbased strategy will not be adequate to prevent a buildup of unacceptably high levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) recent Third Assessment Report and the National Academy of Sciences’ recent analysis of climate change science concluded that climate change is real and must be addressed immediately—and that U.S. policy needs to be directed toward implementing clean energy solutions. 1 Renewable energy technologies have made important and dramatic technical, economic, and operational advances during the past decade. A national energy policy and climate change strategy should be formulated around these advances. Despite dramatic technical and economic advances in clean energy systems, the United States has seen far too little research and development (R&D) and too few incentives and sustained programs to build markets for renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency programs. 2 Not since the late1970s has there been a more compelling and conducive environment for an integrated, large-scale approach to renewable energy innovation and market expansion. 3 Clean, low-carbon energy choices now make both economic and environmental sense, and they provide the domestic basis for our energy supply that will provide security, not dependence on unpredictable overseas fossil fuels. Energy issues in the United States have created “quick fix” solutions that, while politically expedient, will ultimately do the country more harm than good. It is critical to examine all energy options, and never before have so many technological solutions been available to address energy needs. In the near term, some expansion of the nation’s fossil fuel (particularly natural gas) supply is warranted to keep pace with rising demand, but that expansion should be balanced with measures to develop cleaner energy solutions for the future. Our best short-term options for the United States are energy efficiency, conservation, and expanded markets for renewable energy.

Expected Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions by Battery, Fuel Cell, and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Climate change is rapidly becoming known as a tangible issue that must be addressed to avoid major environmental consequences in the future. Recent change in public opinion has been caused by the physical signs of climate change-melting glaciers, rising sea levels, more severe storm and drought events, and hotter average global temperatures annually. Transportation is a major contributor of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, accounting for approximately 14 percent of total anthropogenic emissions globally and about 27 percent in the U.S. Fortunately, transportation technologies and strategies are emerging that can help to meet the climate challenge. These include automotive and fuels technologies, intelligent transportation systems (ITS), and mobility management strategies that can reduce the demand for private vehicles. While the climate change benefits of innovative engine and vehicle technologies are relatively well understood, there are fewer studies available on the energy and emission impacts of ITS and mobility management strategies. In the future, ITS and mobility management will likely play a greater role in reducing fuel consumption. Studies are often based on simulation models, scenario analysis, and limited deployment experience. Thus, more research is needed to quantify potential impacts. Of the nine ITS technologies examined, traffic signal control, electronic toll collection, bus rapid transit, and traveler information have been deployed more widely and demonstrated positive impacts (but often on a limited basis). Mobility management approaches that have established the greatest CO2 reduction potential in Europe and Canada, to date, include road pricing policies (congestion and cordon) and carsharing (short-term auto access). Other approaches have also indicated CO2 reduction potential including: low-speed modes, integrated regional smart cards, park-and-ride facilities, parking cash out, smart growth, telecommuting, and carpooling.

Optimizing fermentation process miscanthus-to-ethanol biorefinery scale under uncertain conditions

Publisher Summary This chapter reviews the estimates of the full social lifetime cost of a battery electric vehicle (BEV), a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and a fuel-cell hybrid electric vehicle (FCEV), which consists of the initial and periodic costs of owning and operating a vehicle, including some nonmarket costs that are incurred by the society as a whole. When compared with a conventional gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), advanced BEVs, PHEVs, and FCEVs have higher initial costs, lower fuel costs, lower external costs, possibly higher insurance costs, and possibly lower maintenance and repair costs. The formal estimation of the full social lifetime cost depends on various analytical details, which include the size of key components for EVs such as batteries, fuel cells, hydrogen pressure vessels, electric motors, cost of key materials for EV components, which include lithium for batteries, platinum and membranes for fuel cells, and the lifetime of key components such as cycles for batteries and pressure vessels. The cost of energy for the EV depends on feedstock costs, fuel production costs, fuel distribution costs, and fuel dispensing/delivery costs. Fuel dispensing or delivery costs, in turn, depend on the type of fuel and the desired fuel delivery method and the maintenance and repair requirements of advanced EV components; drivetrains also influences the full social lifetime cost of a vehicle. The findings suggest that with reasonably anticipatable technological progress, the social lifetime cost of advanced EVs can be close to the social lifetime cost of gasoline EVs.

Business Model for Subscription Service for Electric Vehicles Including Battery Swapping, for San Francisco Bay Area, California

Advances in electric drive technology, including lithium ion batteries as well as the development of strong policy drivers such as Californias Global Warming Solutions Act, now contribute to a more promising market environment for the widespread introduction of plug-in vehicles in California. Nevertheless, battery costs remain high. This study explores a strategy for overcoming the significant hurdle to electric transportation fuel use presented by high battery costs. It describes offsetting plug-in-vehicle battery costs with value derived from post-vehicle stationary use of hybrid batteries and quantifies the possible effect the net present value that several of these benefits might have on battery lease payments. With a focus on blended-mode plug-in hybrids with minimized battery size, even the subset of values explored (regulation, peak power, arbitrage, and some carbon reduction credit) promises to lower battery lease payments while simultaneously allowing vehicle upgrades and profitable repurposing of vehicle batteries for stationary use as grid support, electrical storage and generation devices. Such stationary, post-vehicle battery-to-grid devices could not only provide valuable services needed by existing statewide grid-support markets but could also provide customer side benefits, improve utility operation, help defer costly grid upgrades, and potentially support the profitability and penetration of intermittent renewable energy.

Plug-In Electric Vehicles in California: Review of Current Policies, Related Emissions Reductions for 2020, and Policy Outlook

This chapter presents background on greenhouse gas emission (GHG) formation from motor vehicles and then estimates of GHG emissions from various types of electric vehicles (EVs) such as battery, fuel cell, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles from studies conducted by research groups at universities, national labs, government agencies, and other groups are reviewed. EVs can even have very low to zero emissions of GHGs when they run on renewable fuels; however, at present, EVs are more expensive than other options that offer significant reductions at lower costs as electricity is largely generated from conventional fuels. When coal is heavily used to produce electricity or H 2 , GHG emissions tend to increase significantly compared with conventional fuel alternatives. Without carbon capture and sequestration, coal-based fuels even in conjunction with electric drive systems offer little or no benefit. Much deeper reductions of over 90% in GHG are possible for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) if they are run on renewable or nuclear power sources. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) running on gasoline can reduce emissions by 20–60%, and fuel cell EVs can reduce GHGs by 30–50% when they run on natural gas-derived H 2 and up to 95% or more when the H 2 is produced and potentially compressed by using renewable feedstocks.

FORECASTING COST PATH OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE DRIVE SYSTEM: MONTE CARLO EXPERIENCE CURVE SIMULATION

Ethanol produced from cellulosic feedstocks has garnered significant interest for greenhouse gas abatement and energy security promotion. One outstanding question in the development of a mature cellulosic ethanol industry is the optimal scale of biorefining activities. This question is important for companies and entrepreneurs seeking to construct and operate cellulosic ethanol biorefineries as it determines the size of investment needed and the amount of feedstock for which they must contract. The question also has important implications for the nature and location of lifecycle environmental impacts from cellulosic ethanol. We use an optimization framework similar to previous studies, but add richer details by treating many of these critical parameters as random variables and incorporating a stochastic sub-model for land conversion. We then use Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a probability distribution for the optimal scale of a biorefinery using a fermentation process and miscanthus feedstock. We find a bimodal distribution with a high peak at around 10–30 MMgal yr−1 (representing circumstances where a relatively low percentage of farmers elect to participate in miscanthus cultivation) and a lower and flatter peak between 150 and 250 MMgal yr−1 (representing more typically assumed land-conversion conditions). This distribution leads to useful insights; in particular, the asymmetry of the distribution—with significantly more mass on the low side—indicates that developers of cellulosic ethanol biorefineries may wish to exercise caution in scale-up.