Mark D. Chatfield

Attrition and bias in the MRC cognitive function and ageing study: an epidemiological investigation

BackgroundAny hypothesis in longitudinal studies may be affected by attrition and poor response rates. The MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing study (MRC CFAS) is a population based longitudinal study in five centres with identical methodology in England and Wales each recruiting approximately 2,500 individuals. This paper aims to identify potential biases in the two-year follow-up interviews.MethodsInitial non-response: Those not in the baseline interviews were compared in terms of mortality to those who were in the baseline interviews at the time of the second wave interviews (1993–1996). Longitudinal attrition: Logistic regression analysis was used to examine baseline differences between individuals who took part in the two-year longitudinal wave compared with those who did not.ResultsInitial non-response: Individuals who moved away after sampling but before baseline interview were 1.8 times more likely to die by two years (95% Confidence interval(CI) 1.3–2.4) compared to respondents, after adjusting for age. The refusers had a slightly higher, but similar mortality pattern to responders (Odds ratio 1.2, 95%CI 1.1–1.4).Longitudinal attrition: Predictors for drop out due to death were being older, male, having impaired activities of daily living, poor self-perceived health, poor cognitive ability and smoking. Similarly individuals who refused were more likely to have poor cognitive ability, but had less years of full-time education and were more often living in their own home though less likely to be living alone. There was a higher refusal rate in the rural centres. Individuals who moved away or were uncontactable were more likely to be single, smokers, demented or depressed and were less likely to have moved if in warden-controlled accommodation at baseline.ConclusionsLongitudinal estimation of factors mentioned above could be biased, particularly cognitive ability and estimates of movements from own home to residential homes. However, these differences could also affect other investigations, particularly the estimates of incidence and longitudinal effects of health and psychiatric diseases, where the factors shown here to be associated with attrition are risk factors for the diseases.All longitudinal studies should investigate attrition and this may help with aspects of design and with the analysis of specific hypotheses.

L-arginine and vitamin D adjunctive therapies in pulmonary tuberculosis: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background Vitamin D (vitD) and L-arginine have important antimycobacterial effects in humans. Adjunctive therapy with these agents has the potential to improve outcomes in active tuberculosis (TB). Methods In a 4-arm randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled factorial trial in adults with smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Timika, Indonesia, we tested the effect of oral adjunctive vitD 50,000 IU 4-weekly or matching placebo, and L-arginine 6.0 g daily or matching placebo, for 8 weeks, on proportions of participants with negative 4-week sputum culture, and on an 8-week clinical score (weight, FEV1, cough, sputum, haemoptysis). All participants with available endpoints were included in analyses according to the study arm to which they were originally assigned. Adults with new smear-positive PTB were eligible. The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00677339. Results 200 participants were enrolled, less than the intended sample size: 50 received L-arginine + active vitD, 49 received L-arginine + placebo vit D, 51 received placebo L-arginine + active vitD and 50 received placebo L-arginine + placebo vitD. According to the factorial model, 99 people received arginine, 101 placebo arginine, 101 vitamin D, 99 placebo vitamin D. Results for the primary endpoints were available in 155 (4-week culture) and 167 (clinical score) participants. Sputum culture conversion was achieved by week 4 in 48/76 (63%) participants in the active L-arginine versus 48/79 (61%) in placebo L-arginine arms (risk difference −3%, 95% CI −19 to 13%), and in 44/75 (59%) in the active vitD versus 52/80 (65%) in the placebo vitD arms (risk difference 7%, 95% CI −9 to 22%). The mean clinical outcome score also did not differ between study arms. There were no effects of the interventions on adverse event rates including hypercalcaemia, or other secondary outcomes. Conclusion Neither vitD nor L-arginine supplementation, at the doses administered and with the power attained, affected TB outcomes. Registry ClinicalTrials.gov. Registry number: NCT00677339

Longitudinal Nasopharyngeal Carriage and Antibiotic Resistance of Respiratory Bacteria in Indigenous Australian and Alaska Native Children with Bronchiectasis

Background Indigenous children in Australia and Alaska have very high rates of chronic suppurative lung disease (CSLD)/bronchiectasis. Antibiotics, including frequent or long-term azithromycin in Australia and short-term beta-lactam therapy in both countries, are often prescribed to treat these patients. In the Bronchiectasis Observational Study we examined over several years the nasopharyngeal carriage and antibiotic resistance of respiratory bacteria in these two PCV7-vaccinated populations. Methods Indigenous children aged 0.5–8.9 years with CSLD/bronchiectasis from remote Australia (n = 79) and Alaska (n = 41) were enrolled in a prospective cohort study during 2004–8. At scheduled study visits until 2010 antibiotic use in the preceding 2-weeks was recorded and nasopharyngeal swabs collected for culture and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Analysis of respiratory bacterial carriage and antibiotic resistance was by baseline and final swabs, and total swabs by year. Results Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage changed little over time. In contrast, carriage of Haemophilus influenzae declined and Staphylococcus aureus increased (from 0% in 2005–6 to 23% in 2010 in Alaskan children); these changes were associated with increasing age. Moraxella catarrhalis carriage declined significantly in Australian, but not Alaskan, children (from 64% in 2004–6 to 11% in 2010). While beta-lactam antibiotic use was similar in the two cohorts, Australian children received more azithromycin. Macrolide resistance was significantly higher in Australian compared to Alaskan children, while H. influenzae beta-lactam resistance was higher in Alaskan children. Azithromycin use coincided significantly with reduced carriage of S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae and M. catarrhalis, but increased carriage of S. aureus and macrolide-resistant strains of S. pneumoniae and S. aureus (proportion of carriers and all swabs), in a ‘cumulative dose-response’ relationship. Conclusions Over time, similar (possibly age-related) changes in nasopharyngeal bacterial carriage were observed in Australian and Alaskan children with CSLD/bronchiectasis. However, there were also significant frequency-dependent differences in carriage and antibiotic resistance that coincided with azithromycin use.

Short-course oral co-trimoxazole versus intramuscular benzathine benzylpenicillin for impetigo in a highly endemic region: an open-label, randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND Impetigo affects more than 110 million children worldwide at any one time. The major burden of disease is in developing and tropical settings where topical antibiotics are impractical and lead to rapid emergence of antimicrobial resistance. Few trials of systemic antibiotics are available to guide management of extensive impetigo. As such, we aimed to compare short-course oral co-trimoxazole with standard treatment with intramuscular benzathine benzylpenicillin in children with impetigo in a highly endemic setting. METHODS In this randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial, Indigenous Australian children aged 3 months to 13 years with purulent or crusted non-bullous impetigo were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive benzathine benzylpenicillin (weight-banded injection), twice-daily co-trimoxazole for 3 days (4 mg/kg plus 20 mg/kg per dose), or once-daily co-trimoxazole for 5 days (8 mg/kg plus 40 mg/kg per dose). At every visit, participants were randomised in blocks of six and 12, stratified by disease severity. Randomisation was done by research nurses and codes were in sealed, sequentially numbered, opaque envelopes. Independent reviewers masked to treatment allocation compared digital images of sores from days 0 and 7. The primary outcome was treatment success at day 7 in a modified intention-to-treat analysis. This trial is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, number ACTRN12609000858291. FINDINGS Between Nov 26, 2009, and Nov 20, 2012, 508 patients were randomly assigned to receive benzathine benzylpenicillin (n=165 [156 analysed]), twice-daily co-trimoxazole for 3 days (n=175 [173 analysed]), or once-daily co-trimoxazole for 5 days (n=168 [161 analysed]). Treatment was successful in 133 (85%) children who received benzathine benzylpenicillin and 283 (85%) who received pooled co-trimoxazole (absolute difference 0·5%; 95% CI -6·2 to 7·3), showing non-inferiority of co-trimoxazole (10% margin). Results for twice-daily co-trimoxazole for 3 days and once-daily co-trimoxazole for 5 days were similar. Adverse events occurred in 54 participants, 49 (90%) of whom received benzathine benzylpenicillin. INTERPRETATION Short-course co-trimoxazole is a non-inferior, alternative treatment to benzathine benzylpenicillin for impetigo; it is palatable, pain-free, practical, and easily administered. FUNDING Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Methylated Glutathione S-transferase 1 (mGSTP1) is a potential plasma free DNA epigenetic marker of prognosis and response to chemotherapy in castrate-resistant prostate cancer.

Background:Glutathione S-transferase 1 (GSTP1) inactivation is associated with CpG island promoter hypermethylation in the majority of prostate cancers (PCs). This study assessed whether the level of circulating methylated GSTP1 (mGSTP1) in plasma DNA is associated with chemotherapy response and overall survival (OS).Methods:Plasma samples were collected prospectively from a Phase I exploratory cohort of 75 men with castrate-resistant PC (CRPC) and a Phase II independent validation cohort (n=51). mGSTP1 levels in free DNA were measured using a sensitive methylation-specific PCR assay.Results:The Phase I cohort identified that detectable baseline mGSTP1 DNA was associated with poorer OS (HR, 4.2 95% CI 2.1–8.2; P<0.0001). A decrease in mGSTP1 DNA levels after cycle 1 was associated with a PSA response (P=0.008). In the Phase II cohort, baseline mGSTP1 DNA was a stronger predictor of OS than PSA change after 3 months (P=0.02). Undetectable plasma mGSTP1 after one cycle of chemotherapy was associated with PSA response (P=0.007).Conclusions:We identified plasma mGSTP1 DNA as a potential prognostic marker in men with CRPC as well as a potential surrogate therapeutic efficacy marker for chemotherapy and corroborated these findings in an independent Phase II cohort. Prospective Phase III assessment of mGSTP1 levels in plasma DNA is now warranted.

Severity Scoring Systems: Are They Internally Valid, Reliable and Predictive of Oxygen Use in Children With Acute Bronchiolitis?

Severity scores are commonly used in research and clinically to assess the severity of bronchiolitis. However, there are limitations as few have been validated. The aim of our study was to: (i) determine the validity and reliability of a bronchiolitis scoring system, and (ii) examine if the score predicted the need for oxygen at 12 and 24 hrs. Children aged <24 months presenting to Royal Darwin Hospital with a clinical diagnosis of bronchiolitis were eligible to participate.

Otitis media in children vaccinated during consecutive 7-valent or 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination schedules

BackgroundIn 2001 when 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) was introduced, almost all (90%) young Australian Indigenous children living in remote communities had some form of otitis media (OM), including 24% with tympanic membrane perforation (TMP). In late 2009, the Northern Territory childhood vaccination schedule replaced PCV7 with 10-valent pneumococcal Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV10).MethodsWe conducted regular surveillance of all forms of OM in children in remote Indigenous communities between September 2008 and December 2012. This analysis compares children less than 36 months of age who received a primary course of at least two doses of PCV7 or PHiD-CV10, and not more than one dose of another pneumococcal vaccine.ResultsMean ages of 444 PCV7- and 451 PHiD-CV10-vaccinated children were 20 and 18 months, respectively. Bilaterally normal middle ears were detected in 7% and 9% respectively. OM with effusion was diagnosed in 41% and 51% (Risk Difference 10% [95% Confidence Interval 3 to 17] p = 0.002), any suppurative OM (acute OM or any TMP) in 51% versus 39% (RD −12% [95% CI −19 to −5] p = 0.0004], and TMP in 17% versus 14% (RD −3% [95% CI −8 to 2] p = 0.2), respectively. Multivariate analyses described a similar independent negative association between suppurative OM and PHiD-CV10 compared to PCV7 (Odds Ratio = 0.6 [95% CI 0.4 to 0.8] p = 0.001). Additional children in the household were a risk factor for OM (OR = 2.4 [95% CI 2 to 4] p = 0.001 for the third additional child), and older age and male gender were associated with less disease. Other measured risk factors were non-significant. Similar clinical results were found for children who had received non-mixed PCV schedules.ConclusionsOtitis media remains a significant health and social issue for Australian Indigenous children despite PCV vaccination. Around 90% of young children have some form of OM. Children vaccinated in with PHiD-CV10 had less suppurative OM than children vaccinated with PCV7. Ongoing surveillance during the PCV13 era, and trials of early intervention including earlier and mixed vaccine schedules are warranted.

Stores Healthy Options Project in Remote Indigenous Communities (SHOP@RIC): a protocol of a randomised trial promoting healthy food and beverage purchases through price discounts and in-store nutrition education

BackgroundIndigenous Australians suffer a disproportionate burden of preventable chronic disease compared to their non-Indigenous counterparts – much of it diet-related. Increasing fruit and vegetable intakes and reducing sugar-sweetened soft-drink consumption can reduce the risk of preventable chronic disease. There is evidence from some general population studies that subsidising healthier foods can modify dietary behaviour. There is little such evidence relating specifically to socio-economically disadvantaged populations, even though dietary behaviour in such populations is arguably more likely to be susceptible to such interventions.This study aims to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of a price discount intervention with or without an in-store nutrition education intervention on purchases of fruit, vegetables, water and diet soft-drinks among remote Indigenous communities.Methods/DesignWe will utilise a randomised multiple baseline (stepped wedge) design involving 20 communities in remote Indigenous Australia. The study will be conducted in partnership with two store associations and twenty Indigenous store boards. Communities will be randomised to either i) a 20% price discount on fruit, vegetables, water and diet soft-drinks; or ii) a combined price discount and in-store nutrition education strategy. These interventions will be initiated, at one of five possible time-points, spaced two-months apart. Weekly point-of-sale data will be collected from each community store before, during, and for six months after the six-month intervention period to measure impact on purchasing of discounted food and drinks. Data on physical, social and economic factors influencing weekly store sales will be collected in order to identify important covariates. Intervention fidelity and mediators of behaviour change will also be assessed.DiscussionThis study will provide original evidence on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of price discounts with or without an in-store nutrition education intervention on food and drink purchasing among a socio-economically disadvantaged population in a real-life setting.Trial registrationAustralian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12613000694718

Impact of an Ivermectin Mass Drug Administration on Scabies Prevalence in a Remote Australian Aboriginal Community

Background Scabies is endemic in many Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, with 69% of infants infected in the first year of life. We report the outcomes against scabies of two oral ivermectin mass drug administrations (MDAs) delivered 12 months apart in a remote Australian Aboriginal community. Methods Utilizing a before and after study design, we measured scabies prevalence through population census with sequential MDAs at baseline and month 12. Surveys at months 6 and 18 determined disease acquisition and treatment failures. Scabies infestations were diagnosed clinically with additional laboratory investigations for crusted scabies. Non-pregnant participants weighing ≥15 kg were administered a single 200 μg/kg ivermectin dose, repeated after 2–3 weeks if scabies was diagnosed, others followed a standard alternative algorithm. Principal Findings We saw >1000 participants at each population census. Scabies prevalence fell from 4% at baseline to 1% at month 6. Prevalence rose to 9% at month 12 amongst the baseline cohort in association with an identified exposure to a presumptive crusted scabies case with a higher prevalence of 14% amongst new entries to the cohort. At month 18, scabies prevalence fell to 2%. Scabies acquisitions six months after each MDA were 1% and 2% whilst treatment failures were 6% and 5% respectively. Conclusion Scabies prevalence reduced in the six months after each MDA with a low risk of acquisition (1–2%). However, in a setting where living conditions are conducive to high scabies transmissibility, exposure to presumptive crusted scabies and population mobility, a sustained reduction in prevalence was not achieved. Clinical Trial Registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Register (ACTRN—12609000654257).

Cytokine profiling of docetaxel-resistant castration-resistant prostate cancer

Background:Docetaxel improves symptoms and survival in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). However, ∼50% of patients are chemoresistant. This study examined whether changes in cytokine levels predict for docetaxel resistance in vitro and in a clinical cohort.Methods:PC3 cells or their docetaxel-resistant subline (PC3Rx) were co-cultured with U937 monocytes, with and without docetaxel treatment, and cytokine levels were measured. The circulating levels of 28 cytokines were measured pre-/post cycle 1 of docetaxel from 55 men with CRPC, and compared with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response.Results:PC3Rx-U937 co-culture expressed more cytokines, chiefly markers of alternative macrophage differentiation, compared with PC3-U937 co-culture. Docetaxel treatment enhanced cytokine production by PC3Rx-U937 co-culture, while reducing cytokine levels in PC3-U937. In patients, changes in the levels of seven circulating cytokines (macrophage inhibitory cytokine 1 (MIC1), interleukin (IL)-1ra, IL-1β, IL-4, IL-6, IL-12 and IFNγ) after cycle 1 of docetaxel were associated with progressive disease (all P<0.05). The combination of changes in MIC1, IL-4 and IL-6 most strongly predicted PSA response (P=0.002).Conclusions:In vitro studies suggest docetaxel resistance is mediated, at least in part, by cytokines induced by the interaction between the docetaxel-resistant tumour cells and macrophages. Early changes in circulating cytokine levels were associated with docetaxel resistance in CRPC patients. When considered together, these data suggest a significant role for the inflammatory response and macrophages in the development of docetaxel resistance in CRPC.