Mark H. Houck

Drought contingency planning

Abstract Simulation gaming has the potential to enhance the effectiveness of drought management planning. The Indianapolis water supply system is used to illustrate how. First, the probability of experiencing a severe drought in Indianapolis is examined using historical streamflow data. The effects of such a drought on the municipal water supply system are then analysed using a recently developed simulation model of the Indianapolis water system. Consideration is given to the water resource decision-making problems that might arise under drought conditions, along with a discussion of the benefits of employing simulation gaming in the analysis of these problems. A basic outline for the design of a drought management simulation exercise is presented.

Designing an expert system for real-time reservoir system operation

Abstract Significant progress has been made recently in the design of optimization models to mimic the decision making process of reservoir operators. Several of these models for real-time, short term reservoir system operation are described. The models include: an optimization model constructed specifically for a multi-reservoir, multipurpose system in Kentucky; a goal programming model that requires less information than most other models yet may yield equivalent or better results; a chance constrained model that explicitly considers errors in streamflow forecasts in the operating environment; and a balancing model that uses cumulative distribution functions to maintain a balance between storage, release, and any other characteristic of the operation. Each model is briefly described and comparisons between models are made. These models represent the initial development of an expert system for real-time reservoir system operation.

A Systems Approach to Real-Time Reservoir Operations

The problem of real-time reservoir operations is: given uncertainty about future conditions such as precipitation, streamflows and water related demands, and given long-term operating goals or objectives, and given shorter term guidelines for operation, how much water should be released from each dam during the next hour or day? The current methods used to address this problem in the United States often given considerable discretion to the reservoir operators who generally use their experience, rules of thumb, and intuition to decide on the next period’s releases. This decision process can often be well represented by an optimization model that formalizes the objectives and constraints of operation, and provides a focus for discussion on improved operations. This lecture will provide a review of the real-time reservoir operations problem; an overview of current operating methods; a survey of several optimization modeling approaches to the problem; and comments on several applications of these approaches.

An Application of Systems Modelling in Steel Production Scheduling

Modern steel production is a complex operation with literally hundreds of separate, though operationally related processes. As a production industry with a high volume, total profits depend heavily on efficient operation on the margin. A key factor in efficient operation is the ability to schedule individual operations toward a common goal of optimal production.

Expert Systems and River Basin Management

Expert systems are an emerging technology that may have significant implications for river basin management. Expert systems incorporate in a computerized environment the heuristics, judgments, experience and knowledge of one or more experts in a particular domain. The expert system is then available for consultation by the non-expert to gain advice and guidance on new problems in the domain. There has been a radical improvement in expert systems technology in the past decade, resulting in order of magnitude improvements in the quality of applications and in the development time for applications. There have been successful applications of expert systems that relate to river basin management problems and there are additional applications currently under development. The potential for successful application of expert systems and the potential for significant improvements in river basin management are great.