Mark I. Chen

2009 Influenza A(H1N1) Seroconversion Rates and Risk Factors Among Distinct Adult Cohorts in Singapore

CONTEXT Singapore experienced a single epidemic wave of 2009 influenza A(H1N1) with epidemic activity starting in late June 2009 and peaking in early August before subsiding within a month. OBJECTIVE To compare the risk and factors associated with H1N1 seroconversion in different adult cohorts. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A study with serial serological samples from 4 distinct cohorts: general population (n = 838), military personnel (n = 1213), staff from an acute care hospital (n = 558), and staff as well as residents from long-term care facilities (n = 300) from June 22, 2009, to October 15, 2009. Hemagglutination inhibition results of serum samples taken before, during, and after the epidemic and data from symptom questionnaires are presented. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES A 4-fold or greater increase in titer between any of the 3 serological samples was defined as evidence of H1N1 seroconversion. RESULTS Baseline titers of 40 or more were observed in 22 members (2.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7%-3.9%) of the community, 114 military personnel (9.4%; 95% CI, 7.9%-11.2%), 37 hospital staff (6.6%; 95% CI, 4.8%-9.0%), and 20 participants from long-term care facilities (6.7%; 95% CI, 4.4%-10.1%). In participants with 1 or more follow-up serum samples, 312 military personnel (29.4%; 95% CI, 26.8%-32.2%) seroconverted compared with 98 community members (13.5%; 95% CI, 11.2%-16.2%), 35 hospital staff (6.5%; 95% CI, 4.7%-8.9%), and only 3 long-term care participants (1.2%; 95% CI, 0.4%-3.5%). Increased frequency of seroconversion was observed for community participants from households in which 1 other member seroconverted (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 3.32; 95% CI, 1.50-7.33), whereas older age was associated with reduced odds of seroconversion (adjusted OR, 0.77 per 10 years; 95% CI, 0.64-0.93). Higher baseline titers were associated with decreased frequency of seroconversion in community (adjusted OR for every doubling of baseline titer, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.27-0.85), military (adjusted OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.61-0.81), and hospital staff cohorts (adjusted OR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.26-0.93). CONCLUSION Following the June-September 2009 wave of 2009 influenza A(H1N1), 13% of the community participants seroconverted, and most of the adult population likely remained susceptible.

Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore

Notified cases of dengue infections in Singapore reached historical highs in 2004 (9459 cases) and 2005 (13,817 cases) and the reason for such an increase is still to be established. We apply a mathematical model for dengue infection that takes into account the seasonal variation in incidence, characteristic of dengue fever, and which mimics the 2004-2005 epidemics in Singapore. We simulated a set of possible control strategies and confirmed the intuitive belief that killing adult mosquitoes is the most effective strategy to control an ongoing epidemic. On the other hand, the control of immature forms was very efficient in preventing the resurgence of dengue epidemics. Since the control of immature forms allows the reduction of adulticide, it seems that the best strategy is to combine both adulticide and larvicide control measures during an outbreak, followed by the maintenance of larvicide methods after the epidemic has subsided. In addition, the model showed that the mixed strategy of adulticide and larvicide methods introduced by the government seems to be very effective in reducing the number of cases in the first weeks after the start of control.

Oseltamivir ring prophylaxis for containment of 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreaks.

BACKGROUND From June 22 through June 25, 2009, four outbreaks of infection with the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus occurred in Singapore military camps. We report the efficacy of ring chemoprophylaxis (geographically targeted containment by means of prophylaxis) with oseltamivir to control outbreaks of 2009 H1N1 influenza in semiclosed environments. METHODS All personnel with suspected infection were tested and clinically isolated if infection was confirmed. In addition, we administered postexposure ring chemoprophylaxis with oseltamivir and segregated the affected military units to contain the spread of the virus. All personnel were screened three times weekly both for virologic infection, by means of nasopharyngeal swabs and reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assay with sequencing, and for clinical symptoms, by means of questionnaires. RESULTS A total of 1175 personnel were at risk across the four sites, with 1100 receiving oseltamivir prophylaxis. A total of 75 personnel (6.4%) were infected before the intervention, and 7 (0.6%) after the intervention. There was a significant reduction in the overall reproductive number (the number of new cases attributable to the index case), from 1.91 (95% credible interval, 1.50 to 2.36) before the intervention to 0.11 (95% credible interval, 0.05 to 0.20) after the intervention. Three of the four outbreaks showed a significant reduction in the rate of infection after the intervention. Molecular analysis revealed that all four outbreaks were derived from the New York lineage of the 2009 H1N1 virus and that cases within each outbreak were due to transmission rather than unrelated episodes of infection. Of the 816 personnel treated with oseltamivir who were surveyed, 63 (7.7%) reported mild, nonrespiratory side effects of the drug, with no severe adverse events. CONCLUSIONS Oseltamivir ring chemoprophylaxis, together with prompt identification and isolation of infected personnel, was effective in reducing the impact of outbreaks of 2009 H1N1 influenza in semiclosed settings.

Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict and monitor the number of beds occupied during a SARS outbreak in a tertiary hospital in Singapore

BackgroundThe main objective of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to make real-time predictions on the number of beds occupied in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, during the recent SARS outbreak.MethodsThis is a retrospective study design. Hospital admission and occupancy data for isolation beds was collected from Tan Tock Seng hospital for the period 14th March 2003 to 31st May 2003. The main outcome measure was daily number of isolation beds occupied by SARS patients. Among the covariates considered were daily number of people screened, daily number of people admitted (including observation, suspect and probable cases) and days from the most recent significant event discovery. We utilized the following strategy for the analysis. Firstly, we split the outbreak data into two. Data from 14th March to 21st April 2003 was used for model development. We used structural ARIMA models in an attempt to model the number of beds occupied. Estimation is via the maximum likelihood method using the Kalman filter. For the ARIMA model parameters, we considered the simplest parsimonious lowest order model.ResultsWe found that the ARIMA (1,0,3) model was able to describe and predict the number of beds occupied during the SARS outbreak well. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the training set and validation set were 5.7% and 8.6% respectively, which we found was reasonable for use in the hospital setting. Furthermore, the model also provided three-day forecasts of the number of beds required. Total number of admissions and probable cases admitted on the previous day were also found to be independent prognostic factors of bed occupancy.ConclusionARIMA models provide useful tools for administrators and clinicians in planning for real-time bed capacity during an outbreak of an infectious disease such as SARS. The model could well be used in planning for bed-capacity during outbreaks of other infectious diseases as well.

Improving the Clinical Diagnosis of Influenza—a Comparative Analysis of New Influenza A (H1N1) Cases

Background The presentation of new influenza A(H1N1) is broad and evolving as it continues to affect different geographic locations and populations. To improve the accuracy of predicting influenza infection in an outpatient setting, we undertook a comparative analysis of H1N1(2009), seasonal influenza, and persons with acute respiratory illness (ARI) in an outpatient setting. Methodology/Principal Findings Comparative analyses of one hundred non-matched cases each of PCR confirmed H1N1(2009), seasonal influenza, and ARI cases. Multivariate analysis was performed to look for predictors of influenza infection. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for various combinations of clinical and laboratory case definitions. The initial clinical and laboratory features of H1N1(2009) and seasonal influenza were similar. Among ARI cases, fever, cough, headache, rhinorrhea, the absence of leukocytosis, and a normal chest radiograph positively predict for both PCR-confirmed H1N1-2009 and seasonal influenza infection. The sensitivity and specificity of current WHO and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) criteria were modest in predicting influenza infection. However, the combination of WHO ILI criteria with the absence of leukocytosis greatly improved the accuracy of diagnosing H1N1(2009) and seasonal influenza (positive LR of 7.8 (95%CI 3.5–17.5) and 9.2 (95%CI 4.1–20.3) respectively). Conclusions/Significance The clinical presentation of H1N1(2009) infection is largely indistinguishable from that of seasonal influenza. Among patients with acute respiratory illness, features such as a temperature greater than 38°C, rhinorrhea, a normal chest radiograph, and the absence of leukocytosis or significant gastrointestinal symptoms were all positively associated with H1N1(2009) and seasonal influenza infection. An enhanced ILI criteria that combines both a symptom complex with the absence of leukocytosis on testing can improve the accuracy of predicting both seasonal and H1N1-2009 influenza infection.

Accuracy and User-Acceptability of HIV Self-Testing Using an Oral Fluid-Based HIV Rapid Test

Background The United States FDA approved an over-the-counter HIV self-test, to facilitate increased HIV testing and earlier linkage to care. We assessed the accuracy of self-testing by untrained participants compared to healthcare worker (HCW) testing, participants’ ability to interpret sample results and user-acceptability of self-tests in Singapore. Methodology/Principal Findings A cross-sectional study, involving 200 known HIV-positive patients and 794 unknown HIV status at-risk participants was conducted. Participants (all without prior self-test experience) performed self-testing guided solely by visual instructions, followed by HCW testing, both using the OraQuick ADVANCE Rapid HIV 1/2 Antibody Test, with both results interpreted by the HCW. To assess ability to interpret results, participants were provided 3 sample results (positive, negative, and invalid) to interpret. Of 192 participants who tested positive on HCW testing, self-testing was positive in 186 (96.9%), negative in 5 (2.6%), and invalid in 1 (0.5%). Of 794 participants who tested negative on HCW testing, self-testing was negative in 791 (99.6%), positive in 1 (0.1%), and invalid in 2 (0.3%). Excluding invalid tests, self-testing had sensitivity of 97.4% (95% CI 95.1% to 99.7%) and specificity of 99.9% (95% CI: 99.6% to 100%). When interpreting results, 96%, 93.1% and 95.2% correctly read the positive, negative and invalid respectively. There were no significant demographic predictors for false negative self-testing or wrongly interpreting positive or invalid sample results as negative. Eighty-seven percent would purchase the kit over-the-counter; 89% preferred to take HIV tests in private. 72.5% and 74.9% felt the need for pre- and post-test counseling respectively. Only 28% would pay at least USD15 for the test. Conclusions/Significance Self-testing was associated with high specificity, and a small but significant number of false negatives. Incorrectly identifying model results as invalid was a major reason for incorrect result interpretation. Survey responses were supportive of making self-testing available.

Mind the gap: The role of time between sex with two consecutive partners on the transmission dynamics of gonorrhea

Objective: Both the duration of sexual partnerships and the time between two consecutive partnerships (gap length) varies between populations. We use a mathematical model with multiple partnership durations and gap lengths to identify the types of relationship cycles that sustain gonorrhea transmission in the United Kingdom. Study Design: A mathematical model for gonorrhea transmission was constructed which tracks the duration of partnerships and their preceding gap lengths. The National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles was used to parameterize the model population into 5 different partnership lengths (mean of 1 day, 2 weeks, 8 weeks, 30 weeks, and 10 years) and 3 preceding gap lengths (14 days, 8 weeks, and 1.5 years). Results: The model was able to reproduce patterns of gonococcal infection in the United Kingdom. Assortative (like-with-like) mixing of individuals with short gaps between partnerships was required for gonorrhea infection to persist. Prevalence was highest in individuals with short (>1 day–<1 month) and midterm partnership durations (>1 month–<3 months). Interventions (such as increased condom use) targeted at those with medium-term partnerships were most effective at reducing prevalence; in contrast targeting interventions at those with short partnerships but longer gap lengths (i.e., the group with the highest number of sexual partners) had relatively less impact. Conclusion: Our model suggests that gonorrhea is sustained by the presence of a small group of individuals with short gap lengths and medium length partnerships. Interventions targeted at this group are more effective than those targeted at individuals with high numbers of sexual partners but longer gap lengths.

Influenza Pandemics in Singapore, a Tropical, Globally Connected City

Pandemic preparedness plans must include cities that are global trading hubs.

Study of psychological stress, sebum production and acne vulgaris in adolescents.

Sebum production is thought to play a major role in acne vulgaris in adolescents. Psychological stress may exacerbate acne; however, it is not known whether the perceived association between stress and acne exacerbation is due to increased sebum production. The aims of this study were to determine: (i) if psychological stress in adolescents is associated with increased sebum production; and (ii) if stress is associated with increased acne severity independent of, or in conjunction with, increased sebum production. Ninety-four secondary school students in Singapore (mean age 14.9 years) were enrolled in this prospective cohort study. During a high stress condition (prior to mid-year examinations) and a low stress condition (during the summer holidays), the following were evaluated: (i) self-reported stress level using the Perceived Stress Scale; (ii) sebum level at baseline and at 1 h; and (iii) acne severity. The prevalence of self-reported acne in this study population was high (95% in males and 92% in females). Most subjects had mild to moderate acne. Sebum measurements did not differ significantly between the high stress and low stress conditions. For the study population as a whole, we observed a statistically significant positive correlation (r=0.23, p=0.029) between stress levels and severity of acne papulopustulosa. In adolescents, psychological stress does not appear to affect the quantity of sebum production. The study suggests a significant association between stress and severity of acne papulopustulosa, especially in males. Increased acne severity associated with stress may result from factors other than sebum quantity.

Inactivated trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine induces limited cross-reactive neutralizing antibody responses against 2009 pandemic and 1934 PR8 H1N1 strains

BACKGROUND In June 2009, we conducted a prospective study in Singapore on 51 individuals to determine their serologic responses before and following receipt of the 2009 Southern Hemisphere seasonal influenza vaccine. MATERIALS AND METHODS Paired serum samples were obtained before and 3-4 weeks after vaccination. Virus microneutralization assays were performed to quantify antibodies against A/Brisbane/59/2007 vaccine, pandemic H1N1-2009 and A/Puerto Rico/08/34 H1N1 strains. RESULTS Post-vaccination, 43%, 12% and 24% of subjects displayed a 4-fold or greater rise in neutralizing antibody titers against the three strains, respectively. There was a positive correlation among individuals who showed increased titers to both pandemic H1N1-2009 and A/Puerto Rico/08/34 (p<0.001). However, this correlation was not observed for A/Brisbane/59/2007 with either strain. The relative conservation and accessibility of predicted B-cell epitopes may explain the limited cross-reactivity of the antibodies directed against common H1N1 epitopes. CONCLUSIONS These results suggest that seasonal influenza vaccination confers a certain degree of cross-protection to other H1N1 strains. The correlation in cross-reactive antibody titers to A/Puerto Rico/08/34 and pandemic H1N1-2009 implies that previous exposure to pre-1957 H1N1 strains may confer some protection against the 2009 pandemic strain.