Mark Lawley

Executing production schedules in the face of uncertainties: A review and some future directions

We review the literature on executing production schedules in the presence of unforeseen disruptions on the shop floor. We discuss a number of issues related to problem formulation, and discuss the functions of the production schedule in the organization and provide a taxonomy of the different types of uncertainty faced by scheduling algorithms. We then review previous research relative to these issues, and suggest a number of directions for future work in this area. � 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Residual-life distributions from component degradation signals: A Bayesian approach

Real-time condition monitoring is becoming an important tool in maintenance decision-making. Condition monitoring is the process of collecting real-time sensor information from a functioning device in order to reason about the health of the device. To make effective use of condition information, it is useful to characterize a device degradation signal, a quantity computed from condition information that captures the current state of the device and provides information on how that condition is likely to evolve in the future. If properly modeled, the degradation signal can be used to compute a residual-life distribution for the device being monitored, which can then be used in decision models. In this work, we develop Bayesian updating methods that use real-time condition monitoring information to update the stochastic parameters of exponential degradation models. We use these degradation models to develop a closed-form residual-life distribution for the monitored device. Finally, we apply these degradation and residual-life models to degradation signals obtained through the accelerated testing of bearings.

Residual life predictions from vibration-based degradation signals: a neural network approach

Maintenance of mechanical and rotational equipment often includes bearing inspection and/or replacement. Thus, it is important to identify current as well as future conditions of bearings to avoid unexpected failure. Most published research in this area is focused on diagnosing bearing faults. In contrast, this paper develops neural-network-based models for predicting bearing failures. An experimental setup is developed to perform accelerated bearing tests where vibration information is collected from a number of bearings that are run until failure. This information is then used to train neural network models on predicting bearing operating times. Vibration data from a set of validation bearings are then applied to these network models. Resulting predictions are then used to estimate the bearing failure time. These predictions are then compared with the actual lives of the validation bearings and errors are computed to evaluate the effectiveness of each model. For the best model, we find that 64% of predictions are within 10% of actual bearing life, while 92% of predictions are within 20% of the actual life.

A stochastic overbooking model for outpatient clinical scheduling with no-shows

In this paper a stochastic overbooking model is formulated and an appointment scheduling policy is developed for outpatient clinics. The schedule is constructed for a single service period partitioned into time slots of equal length. A clinic scheduler assigns patients to slots through a sequential patient call-in process where the scheduler must provide each calling patient with an appointment time before the patients call terminates. Once an appointment is added to the schedule, it cannot be changed. Each calling patient has a no-show probability, and overbooking is used to compensate for patient no-shows. The scheduling objective captures patient waiting time, staff overtime and patient revenue. Conditions under which the objective evolution is unimodal are derived and the behavior of the scheduling policy is investigated under a variety of conditions. Practical observations on the performance of the policy are presented.

Polynomial-complexity deadlock avoidance policies for sequential resource allocation systems

The development of efficient deadlock avoidance policies (DAPs) for sequential resource allocation systems (RASs) is a problem of increasing interest in the scientific community, largely because of its relevance to the design of large-scale flexibly automated manufacturing systems. Much of the work on this problem existing in the literature is focused on the so-called single-unit RAS model, which is the simplest model in the considered class of RASs. Furthermore, due to a well-established result stating that, even for single-unit RASs, the computation of the maximally permissive DAP is intractable (NP-hard), many researchers (including our group) have focused on obtaining good suboptimal policies which are computationally tractable (scalable) and provably correct. In the first part of the paper, it is shown, however, that for a large subset (in fact, a majority) of single-unit RASs, the optimal DAP can be obtained in real-time with a computational cost which is a polynomial function of the system size (i.e., the number of resource types and the distinct route stages of the processes running through the system). The implications of this result for the entire class of single-unit RASs are also explored. With a result on the design of optimal DAPs for single-unit RASs, the second part of the paper concentrates on the development of scalable and provably correct DAPs for the more general case of conjunctive RASs.

A correct and scalable deadlock avoidance policy for flexible manufacturing systems

Configuration flexibility and deadlock-free operation are two essential properties of control systems for highly automated flexible manufacturing systems. Configuration flexibility, the ability to quickly modify manufacturing system components and their logical relationships, requires automatic generation of control executables from high level system specifications. These control executables must guarantee deadlock-free operation. The resource order policy is a configurable controller that provides the deadlock-free guarantee for buffer space allocation. It uses a total ordering of system machines and routing information to generate a set of configuration specific linear constraints. These constraints encode the system state along with a buffer capacity function and define a deadlock-free region of operation. Constraint generation and execution are of polynomial complexity.

A Neural Network Degradation Model for Computing and Updating Residual Life Distributions

The ability to accurately estimate the residual life of partially degraded components is arguably the most challenging problem in prognostic condition monitoring. This paper focuses on the development of a neural network-based degradation model that utilizes condition-based sensory signals to compute and continuously update residual life distributions of partially degraded components. Initial predicted failure times are estimated through trained neural networks using real-time sensory signals. These estimates are used to derive a prior failure time distribution for the component that is being monitored. Subsequent failure time estimates are then utilized to update the prior distributions using a Bayesian approach. The proposed methodology is tested using real world vibration-based degradation signals from rolling contact thrust bearings. The proposed methodology performed favorably when compared to other reliability-based and statistical-based benchmarks.

Clinic scheduling models with overbooking for patients with heterogeneous no-show probabilities

Clinical overbooking is intended to reduce the negative impact of patient no-shows on clinic operations and performance. In this paper, we study the clinical scheduling problem with overbooking for heterogeneous patients, i.e. patients who have different no-show probabilities. We consider the objective of maximizing expected profit, which includes revenue from patients and costs associated with patient waiting times and physician overtime. We show that the objective function with homogeneous patients, i.e. patients with the same no-show probability, is multimodular. We also show that this property does not hold when patients are heterogeneous. We identify properties of an optimal schedule with heterogeneous patients and propose a local search algorithm to find local optimal schedules. Then, we extend our results to sequential scheduling and propose two sequential scheduling procedures. Finally, we perform a set of numerical experiments and provide managerial insights for health care practitioners.

Deadlock avoidance for production systems with flexible routing

The objective of this work is to characterize the deadlock avoidance problem for systems with flexible routing capabilities. Specifically, the paper addresses deadlock avoidance for single capacity systems (each machine has a single unit of buffer capacity), and mixed capacity systems (some machines have multiple units of buffer capacity). For each of these, we characterize deadlock and prove the correctness of several methods of suboptimal deadlock avoidance. We also address two interesting special cases. The first assumes that every stage of every part type can be performed on at least one multiple capacity machine, whereas the second provides a finite central buffer that can be revisited after every processing stage. For the first case, we present two suboptimal deadlock avoidance approaches, while for the second case, we show optimal deadlock avoidance to be computationally tractable.

A Neural Network Integrated Decision Support System for Condition-Based Optimal Predictive Maintenance Policy

This paper develops an integrated neural-network-based decision support system for predictive maintenance of rotational equipment. The integrated system is platform-independent and is aimed at minimizing expected cost per unit operational time. The proposed system consists of three components. The first component develops a vibration-based degradation database through condition monitoring of rolling element bearings. In the second component, an artificial neural network model is developed to estimate the life percentile and failure times of roller bearings. This is then used to construct a marginal distribution. The third component consists of the construction of a cost matrix and probabilistic replacement model that optimizes the expected cost per unit time. Furthermore, the integrated system consists of a heuristic managerial decision rule for different scenarios of predictive and corrective cost compositions. Finally, the proposed system can be applied in various industries and different kinds of equipment that possess well-defined degradation characteristics