Mark T. Stoelinga

A Potential Vorticity-Based Study of the Role of Diabatic Heating and Friction in a Numerically Simulated Baroclinic Cyclone

Abstract A particularly intense case of western Atlantic baroclinic cyclogenesis was investigated in this study. Specifically, the roles of latent heat of condensation and surface friction were examined from the potential vorticity or “PV thinking” perspective. The methodology used for this study involves three key components: 1) a full-physics mesoscale model, which provides a continuous and dynamically consistent dataset and provides full user control over physical processes; 2) a partitioned PV integration, which temporally integrates the accumulation of PV due to various physical processes in the models Eulerian framework: and 3) the piecewise inversion method of Davis and Emanuel, which calculates the balanced wind and mass field associated with particular PV anomalies. Potential vorticity features obtained through the partitioned integration technique were inverted to yield their direct contributions to the total circulation. In addition, sensitivity studies were carried out to determine the overal...

Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment

Abstract Despite continual increases in numerical model resolution and significant improvements in the forecasting of many meteorological parameters, progress in quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) has been slow. This is attributable in part to deficiencies in the bulk microphysical parameterization (BMP) schemes used in mesoscale models to simulate cloud and precipitation processes. These deficiencies have become more apparent as model resolution has increased. To address these problems requires comprehensive data that can be used to isolate errors in QPF due to BMP schemes from those due to other sources. These same data can then be used to evaluate and improve the microphysical processes and hydrometeor fields simulated by BMP schemes. In response to the need for such data, a group of researchers is collaborating on a study titled the Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE). IMPROVE has included two field campaigns carried out in th...

Assessing the Impacts of Global Warming on Snowpack in the Washington Cascades

Abstract The decrease in mountain snowpack associated with global warming is difficult to estimate in the presence of the large year-to-year natural variability in observations of snow-water equivalent (SWE). A more robust approach for inferring the impacts of global warming is to estimate the temperature sensitivity (λ) of spring snowpack and multiply it by putative past and future temperature rises observed across the Northern Hemisphere. Estimates of λ can be obtained from (i) simple geometric considerations based on the notion that as the seasonal-mean temperature rises by the amount δT, the freezing level and the entire snowpack should rise by the increment δT/Γ, where Γ is the mean lapse rate; (ii) the regression of 1 April SWE measurements upon mean winter temperatures; (iii) a hydrological model forced by daily temperature and precipitation observations; and (iv) the use of inferred accumulated snowfall derived from daily temperature and precipitation data as a proxy for SWE. All four methods yiel...

The 13–14 December 2001 IMPROVE-2 Event. Part II: Comparisons of MM5 Model Simulations of Clouds and Precipitation with Observations

Abstract This paper compares airborne in situ observations of cloud microphysical parameters with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) simulations, using the Reisner-2 bulk microphysical parameterization, for a heavy precipitation event over the Oregon Cascades on 13–14 December 2001. The MM5 correctly replicated the extent of the snow field and the growth of snow particles by vapor deposition measured along aircraft flight tracks between altitudes of 4.9 and 6 km, but overpredicted the mass concentrations of snow. The model produced a broader number distribution of snow particles than observed, overpredicting the number of moderate-to-large-sized snow particles and underpredicting the number of small particles observed along the aircraft flight track. Over the mountain crest, the model overpredicted depositional growth of snow and mass concentrations of snow, but underpredicted the amount of cloud liquid water and con...

The IMPROVE-1 Storm of 1–2 February 2001. Part III: Sensitivity of a Mesoscale Model Simulation to the Representation of Snow Particle Types and Testing of a Bulk Microphysical Scheme with Snow Habit Prediction

Abstract A mesoscale model simulation of a wide cold-frontal rainband observed in the Pacific Northwest during the Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE-1) field study was used to test the sensitivity of the model-produced precipitation to varied representations of snow particles in a bulk microphysical scheme. Tests of sensitivity to snow habit type, by using empirical relationships for mass and velocity versus diameter, demonstrated the defectiveness of the conventional assumption of snow particles as constant density spheres. More realistic empirical mass–diameter relationships result in increased numbers of particles and shift the snow size distribution toward larger particles, leading to increased depositional growth of snow and decreased cloud water production. Use of realistic empirical mass–diameter relationships generally increased precipitation at the surface as the rainband interacted with the orography, with more limited increases ...

Microphysical Processes and Synergistic Interaction between Frontal and Orographic Forcing of Precipitation during the 13 December 2001 IMPROVE-2 Event over the Oregon Cascades

Abstract On 13–14 December 2001 a vigorous cyclonic storm passed over the Pacific Northwest, producing heavy orographic precipitation over the Cascade Mountains. This storm was one of several studied during the second field phase of the Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE). A wide variety of in situ and remotely sensed measurements were obtained as this storm passed over the Oregon Cascades. These measurements provided a comprehensive dataset of meteorological state parameters (temperature, pressure, humidity, winds, and vertical air velocity), polarization Doppler radar measurements, and cloud microphysical parameters (cloud liquid water, particle concentrations, size spectra, and imagery). The 13–14 December case was characterized by the passage of a tipped-forward lower-tropospheric front that extended upward to a preceding vigorous upper cold-frontal rainband, which produced clouds up to ∼8–9 km. An important difference between this stor...

Size Spectra of Snow Particles Measured in Wintertime Precipitation in the Pacific Northwest

Abstract Particle size spectra collected by the University of Washington’s Convair-580 research aircraft at a variety of altitudes and temperatures in winter frontal and orographic precipitation systems during the Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE) are analyzed in this study. The particle size spectra generally appeared to conform to an exponential size distribution, with well-correlated linear fits between the log of the number concentration and particle diameter. When the particle size spectra were grouped according to the habit composition as determined from airborne imagery, significantly improved correlations between the size spectrum parameters and temperature were obtained. This result could potentially be exploited for specifying the size distribution in a single-moment bulk microphysical scheme, if particle habit is predicted by the scheme. Analyses of “spectral trajectories” suggest that the rime-splintering process was likely re...

A Coupled Air-Sea Mesoscale Model: Experiments in Atmospheric Sensitivity to Marine Roughness

A coupled air‐sea numerical model comprising a mesoscale atmospheric model, a marine circulation model, and a surface wave model is presented. The coupled model is tested through simulations of an event of frontal passage through the Lake Erie region. Experiments investigate the effects of different sea surface roughness parameterizations on the atmospheric simulations. The coupled system’s components are the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University‐National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5), the Princeton Numerical Ocean Model (POM), and the GLERL‐ Donelan Wave Model (GDM). The finest of the MM5’s three nested grids covers Lake Erie, on which the POM and GDM operate. The MM5 provides surface heat and momentum fluxes to the POM, and the POM returns lake surface temperatures to the MM5. The MM5 provides 10-m winds to the GDM, and the GDM returns sea state information to the MM5. The MM5 uses this sea state information in calculating overwater roughness lengths (z 0’s). Experiments varying the MM5’s roughness parameterization over Lake Erie are performed, resulting in a broad range of z 0’s. It is found that wave model coupling can significantly increase overwater roughnesses in the MM5, leading to increased surface heat and moisture fluxes and to changes in PBL characteristics. The impacts on the atmosphere from marine model coupling can appear far downstream of the coupled zones. The accuracy of the mesoscale atmospheric simulation appears sensitive to the assumptions behind the marine roughness parameterizations used. The results suggest that, for consistent forecast improvement, marine roughness parameterizations should account for wave age. In addition, it is found that accounting for wave movement in an air‐sea coupling scheme can be a significant factor in the calculation of surface stresses and, with them, surface heat fluxes over marine areas. Thus, the approach with which a coupling scheme implements sea-statedependent roughness parameterizations can be as influential as the parameterizations themselves.

The IMPROVE-1 Storm of 1–2 February 2001. Part II: Cloud Structures and the Growth of Precipitation

Abstract On 1–2 February 2001, a strong cyclonic storm system developed over the northeastern Pacific Ocean and moved onto the Washington coast. This storm was one of several that were documented during the first field phase of the Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE). In the 1–2 February case, soundings and wind profiler measurements showed that a wide cold-frontal rainband was coincident with the leading edge of an upper-level cold front in a classical warm occlusion. Ground-based radar observations revealed the presence of subbands within the wide cold-frontal rainband and two layers of precipitation generating cells within this rainband: one at 5–7 km MSL and the other at 9–10 km MSL. The lower layer of generating cells produced fallstreaks that were traced from the cells down to the radar bright band at 2 km MSL. Observations suggest a connection between the subbands and the lower layer of generating cells. A research aircraft, equipped...

Structure and Evolution of an Undular Bore on the High Plains and Its Effects on Migrating Birds

Abstract On 18 September 1992 a series of thunderstorms in Nebraska and eastern Colorado, which formed south of a synoptic-scale cold front and north of a Rocky Mountain lee trough, produced a cold outflow gust front that moved southeastward into Kansas, southeastern Colorado, and Oklahoma around sunset. When this cold outflow reached the vicinity of the lee trough, an undular bore developed on a nocturnally produced stable layer and moved through the range of the Dodge City WSR-88D Doppler radar. The radar data revealed that the undular bore, in the leading portion of a region of northwesterly winds about 45 km wide by 4 km high directly abutting the cold outflow, developed five undulations over the course of 3 h. Contrary to laboratory tank experiments, observations indicated that the solitary waves that composed the bore probably did not form from the enveloping of the head of the cold air outflow by the stable layer and the breaking off of the head of the cold air outflow. The synoptic-scale cold fron...