Jordan G. Powers

A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2

The Technical Note series provides an outlet for a variety of NCAR manuscripts that contribute in specialized ways to the body of scientific knowledge but which are not suitable for journal, monograph, or book publication. Reports in this series are issued by the NCAR Scientific Divisions ; copies may be obtained on request from the Publications Office of NCAR. Designation symbols for the series include: Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

Real-time mesoscale modeling over Antarctica: The Antarctic mesoscale prediction system

In support of the United States Antarctic Program (USAP), the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Byrd Polar Research Center of The Ohio State University have created the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS): an experimental, real-time mesoscale modeling system covering Antarctica. AMPS has been designed to serve flight forecasters at McMurdo Station, to support science and operations around the continent, and to be a vehicle for the development of physical parameterizations suitable for polar regions. Since 2000, AMPS has been producing high-resolution forecasts (grids to 3.3 km) with the “Polar MM5,” a version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model tuned for the polar atmosphere. Beyond its basic mission of serving the USAP flight forecasters at McMurdo, AMPS has assisted both in emergency operations to save lives and in programs to explore the extreme polar environment. The former have included a medical evacuation from the South Pole and a marin...

Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)*

In response to the need for improved weather prediction capabilities in support of the U.S. Antarctic Program’s field operations, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) was implemented in October 2000. AMPS employs the Polar MM5, a version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University– NCAR Mesoscale Model optimized for use over ice sheets. The modeling system consists of several domains ranging in horizontal resolution from 90 km covering a large part of the Southern Hemisphere to 3.3 km over the complex terrain surrounding McMurdo, the hub of U.S. operations. The performance of the 30-km AMPS domain versus observations from manned and automatic weather stations is statistically evaluated for a 2-yr period from September 2001 through August 2003. The simulated 12–36-h surface pressure and near-surface temperature at most sites have correlations of r 0.95 and r 0.75, respectively, and small biases. Surface wind speeds reflect the complex topography and generally have correlations between 0.5 and 0.6, and positive biases of 1–2 m s 1 . In the free atmosphere, r 0.95 (geopotential height), r 0.9 (temperature), and r 0.8 (wind speed) at most sites. Over the annual cycle, there is little interseasonal variation in skill. Over the length of the forecast, a gradual decrease in skill is observed from hours 0–72. One exception is the surface pressure, which improves slightly in the first few hours, due in part to the model adjusting from surface pressure biases that are caused by the initialization technique over the high, cold terrain. The impact of the higher-resolution model domains over the McMurdo region is also evaluated. It is shown that the 3.3-km domain is more sensitive to spatial and temporal changes in the winds than the 10-km domain, which represents an overall improvement in forecast skill, especially on the windward side of the island where the Williams Field and Pegasus runways are situated, and in the lee of Ross Island, an important area of mesoscale cyclogenesis (although the correlation coefficients in these regions are still relatively low).

The Climate of the McMurdo, Antarctica, Region as Represented by One Year of Forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System*

Abstract In response to the need for improved weather prediction capabilities in support of the U.S. Antarctic Program’s Antarctic field operations, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) was implemented in October 2000. AMPS employs a limited-area model, the Polar fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5), optimized for use over ice sheets. Twice-daily forecasts from the 3.3-km resolution domain of AMPS are joined together to study the climate of the McMurdo region from June 2002 to May 2003. Annual and seasonal distributions of wind direction and speed, 2-m temperature, mean sea level pressure, precipitation, and cloud fraction are presented. This is the first time a model adapted for polar use and with relatively high resolution is used to study the climate of the rugged McMurdo region, allowing several important climatological features to be investigated with unprecedented detail. Orographic effects exert an impor...

Numerical Prediction of an Antarctic Severe Wind Event with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Abstract This study initiates the application of the maturing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the polar regions in the context of the real-time Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS). The behavior of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) in a high-latitude setting and its ability to capture a significant Antarctic weather event are investigated. Also, in a suite of sensitivity tests, the impacts of the assimilation of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric motion vectors on ARW Antarctic forecasts are explored. The simulation results are analyzed and the statistical significance of error differences is assessed. It is found that with the proper consideration of MODIS data the ARW can accurately simulate a major Antarctic event, the May 2004 McMurdo windstorm. The ARW simulations illuminate an episode of high-momentum flow responding to the complex orography of the vital Ross Island region. While the model captures the synoptic setting and basic trajectory of the ...

A Decade of Antarctic Science Support Through Amps

The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) is a real-time numerical weather prediction (NWP) system covering Antarctica that has served a remarkable range of groups and activities for a decade. It employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) on varying-resolution grids to generate numerical guidance in a variety of tailored products. While its priority mission has been to support the forecasters of the U.S. Antarctic Program, AMPS has evolved to assist a host of scientific and logistical needs for an international user base. The AMPS effort has advanced polar NWP and Antarctic science and looks to continue this into another decade. To inform those with Antarctic scientific and logistical interests and needs, the history, applications, and capabilities of AMPS are discussed.

Numerical simulations of the July 10 Stratospheric-Tropospheric Experiment: Radiation, Aerosols, and Ozone/Deep Convection Experiment convective system: Kinematics and transport

The observed July 10, 1996, Stratospheric-Tropospheric Experiment: Radiation, Aerosols, and Ozone (STERAO) convective system is broadly reproduced in a nonhydrostatic cloud model simulation using an idealized horizontally homogeneous sounding and no terrain. System evolution from a multicellular line to a supercell, along with line orientation, anvil structure, horizontal wind fields, depth of convection, and derived radar reflectivity, compares well with observations. Simulated passive tracer transport of CO and ozone generally agrees with aircraft measurements and shows a small amount of entrainment of environmental air in the updrafts, and a small amount of dilution occurring with transport downwind in the anvil; the entrainment and dilution are less pronounced in the supercell stage. The horizontally integrated vertical flux divergence for CO in the simulation shows a net gain at almost all levels above 8 km mean sea level (msl). The rate of increase of CO mass above 8 km varies significantly in time, with a peak at early times, followed by a decline and minimum as the system transitions to a supercell and a steady increase as the supercell matures. Trajectory analyses show that updrafts in the simulation are ingesting air from a layer spanning from 2 km to 3.5 km msl (from 0.5 to 2km above the surface). The residence times for parcels in the updraft varies from just under 10 min to more than 20 min, with most parcels taking approximately 10 min to ascend to the anvil.

The Concordiasi Project in Antarctica

The Concordiasi project is making innovative observations of the atmosphere above Antarctica. The most important goals of the Concordiasi are as follows: To enhance the accuracy of weather prediction and climate records in Antarctica through the assimilation of in situ and satellite data, with an emphasis on data provided by hyperspectral infrared sounders. The focus is on clouds, precipitation, and the mass budget of the ice sheets. The improvements in dynamical model analyses and forecasts will be used in chemical-transport models that describe the links between the polar vortex dynamics and ozone depletion, and to advance the under understanding of the Earth system by examining the interactions between Antarctica and lower latitudes. To improve our understanding of microphysical and dynamical processes controlling the polar ozone, by providing the first quasi-Lagrangian observations of stratospheric ozone and particles, in addition to an improved characterization of the 3D polar vortex dynamics. Techni...

Numerical Simulation of the Large-Amplitude Mesoscale Gravity-Wave Event of 15 December 1987 in the Central United States

Abstract An observational study, employing spectral methods, is first made to establish a background for a modeling effort of the mesoscale gravity-wave event of 15 December 1987. The waves are found to have wavelengths of 100–160 km, phase speeds of approximately 30 m s−1, and lifetimes of over 6 h. Conditions for their maintenance are evaluated, indicating the presence of a wave duct and a supportive role for wave-CISK. Convection, shearing instability, and geostrophic adjustment are all implicated as possible source mechanisms for the observed waves. The case is then simulated with the Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research MM4 mesoscale forecast model, with the following primary objectives: (i) to test the models ability to simulate a mesoscale gravity-wave event, (ii) to examine in detail the environments of mesoscale gravity-wave development, and (iii) to investigate the mechanisms of mesoscale gravity-wave generation and maintenance. The full-physics control experim...

Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS): A Case Study from the 2000–01 Field Season*

Abstract To support the forecasting needs of the United States Antarctic Program at McMurdo, Antarctica, a special numerical weather prediction program, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), was established for the 2000–01 field season. AMPS employs the Polar MM5, a version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) that has physics modifications for polar environments. This study assesses the performance of AMPS in forecasting an event of mesoscale cyclogenesis in the western Ross Sea during 13–17 January 2001. Observations indicate the presence of a complex trough having two primary mesoscale lows that merge to the east of Ross Island shortly after 0700 UTC 15 January. In contrast, AMPS predicts one primary mesoscale low throughout the event, incorrectly placing it until the 1800 UTC 15 January forecast, when the observed system carries a prominent signature in the initialization. The model reproduces the evolution of upper-level conditions in agreement ...