Markus Promberger

The Shift-Share Regression: An Application to Regional Employment Development in Bavaria

The so-called Shift-Share-Regression is used to analyse the development of employment. This does not imply a deterministic decomposition such as in classical Shift-Share-Analysis (Dunn 1960; Loveridge and Selting 1998). Instead, Shift-Share-Regression is a powerful and flexible econometric tool, which is especially suitable for testing theory-based hypotheses. In a basic version it was introduced by Patterson (1991) as a method for analysing and testing regional industrial developments. In contrary to the deterministic Shift-Share-Analysis employment development was examined in a linear model. In Patterson’s analysis the industrial sector structure was used as the sole determining factor alongside the location effects and the national trend, parallel to those of the deterministic analysis. Moller and Tassinopoulos (2000) extended Patterson’s approach by an additional variable for regional concentration. Further theory-based influences were then integrated in various IAB analyses (Blien and Wolf 2002). Some results of these studies are presented below, following an overview of the method.

Chancen des Resilienzbegriffs für eine soziologische Armutsforschung

Wenn wir uns die Armutsentwicklung in Deutschland der letzten Jahrzehnte vor Augen fuhren, dann fallt auf, dass spatestens seit den 1970er Jahren in der Regel mehrere Millionen Menschen arm sind. Dies lasst sich feststellen ungeachtet aller Konjunkturveranderungen, Wandlungen der wirtschaftlichen Struktur, politischen Paradigmenwechsel, Praktiken der Armutsbekampfung und Anderungen der Messverfahren von Armut. Es ist daher zu konstatieren, dass in Deutschland, wie auch in anderen westlichen Wohlfahrtsstaaten, zwar das Abfedern von Armut durch kompensatorische Leistungen grostenteils gelingen mag, ein deutlicher Ruckbau von Armut jedoch auch im Rahmen der mit grosen Versprechungen lancierten und durchgesetzten Aktivierungspolitiken nicht gelungen ist.

Industrial, Urban and Worker Identity Transitions in Nuremberg

The Nuremberg region is one of the important economic centres in southern Germany. This chapter considers its transformations in relation to urban areas, economic and social structures and with reference to broader developments in Germany. Significant restructuring and change, typical of industrial shifts in the older manufacturing areas of southern Germany, can be observed in all of Nuremberg’s industrial quarters and neighbourhoods, the biggest of which are located in the south and west of the city. The Sudstadt (the area between the main railway line to the north and the railway shunting yard to the south) of Nuremberg, the city’s old industrial core, is an area of major transformation with many structural problems. In this chapter we consider these transitions on different interconnected levels, beginning with Germany as a whole and considering ways of understanding these changes and then moving to city level and to the regeneration experiences of living and working in the Sudstadt.