Marrit van den Berg

Small-Scale irrigation and income distribution in Ethiopia

Abstract Irrigation stimulates agricultural productivity and economic growth, but this may come at the cost of growing inequality. Using data at community and household level, this paper analyzes the distributional impacts of irrigation in Ethiopia. Regression analyses reveal the direct effects of irrigation on expenditures and labour demand, and the indirect effects of irrigation on food prices and expenditures of non-irrigation households. The results indicate that past development of irrigation stimulated growth without deepening inequality, and that irrigation decreased dependence on food-for-work programs. Thus, irrigation has played a positive role in the development of Ethiopia.

The Impact of Work and Non‐Work Migration on Household Welfare, Poverty and Inequality

This article estimates the impact of work migration and non-work migration on per capita income, per capita expenditures, poverty and inequality in Vietnam using data from the two most recent Vietnam Household and Living Standard Surveys. We find that both work migration and non-work migration have a positive impact on per capita expenditures of migrant-sending households. Non-work migration significantly decreases the incidence, depth and severity of national poverty. The effect of work migration on poverty is much smaller. Still, while work migration does not lift people out of poverty, it makes their poverty less severe. In addition, both work migration and non-work migration decrease inequality, albeit only very slightly.

Combining farm and regional level modelling for Integrated Resource Management in East and South-east Asia

Abstract Currently, in many of the highly productive lowland areas of East and South-east Asia a trend to further intensification and diversification of agricultural land use can be observed. Growing economies and urbanization also increase the claims on land and water by non-agricultural uses. As a result, decisions related to the management and planning of scarce resources become increasingly complex. Technological innovations at the field/farm level are necessary but not sufficient – changes in resource use at regional scale will also be essential. To support decision-making in such situations, we advocate a multi-scale modelling approach embedded in a sound participatory process. To this end, the Integrated Resource Management and Land use Analysis (IRMLA) Project is developing an analytical framework and methods for resource use analysis and planning, for four sites in Asia. In the envisaged multi-scale approach, integration of results from field, farm, district and provincial level analysis is based on interactive multiple goal linear programming (IMGLP), farm household modelling (FHM), production ecological concepts and participatory techniques. The approach comprises the following steps: (i) inventory/quantification of current land use systems, resource availability, management practices and policy views, (ii) analysis of alternative, innovative land use systems/technologies, (iii) exploration of the opportunities and limitations to change resource use at regional scale under alternative future scenarios, (iv) modelling decision behaviour of farmers and identification of feasible policy interventions, and (v) synthesis of results from farm to regional level for negotiation of the most promising options by a stakeholder platform. In the current paper, the operationalisation of dual-scale analysis is illustrated by the outputs (development scenarios, promising policy measures and innovative production systems) from various component models for the case study Ilocos Norte, Philippines. An approach is discussed for the integration of results from the different model components at two different decision making levels (farm and province).

A Country-Wide Study of Consumer Choice for an Emerging Supermarket Sector: A Case Study of Nicaragua

Studies portraying and quantifying supermarket clientele based on country-wide survey data are scarce in development economics literature. This article studies the choice of outlet of Nicaraguan consumers in 1998 and 2001 when supermarkets started to emerge and gain in importance. It applies comparative statistics and a multinomial logit model to countrywide data on 4,000 households. The results show an emerging supermarket sector with a slowly growing clientele, especially among the better endowed and more highly educated families. Small grocery shops or pulperias and the daily and weekly markets continue to serve most clients.

Loan Officers' Gender and Microfinance Repayment Rates

Abstract This study examines the impact of loan officer characteristics on repayment rates of microfinance borrowers in Mexico applying multilevel analyses, with special attention to the impact of the gender of the loan officer on default rates. The results strongly suggest that loan officers play a crucial role in improving repayment rates in microfinance and that male loan officers are better able to induce borrowers to repay than female loan officers. This may be because men exert authority over women and face fewer problems working late, travelling through unsafe places, and combining a position as counsellor with enforcing repayment.

Rural Non-Farm Activities in Central Asia: A Regional Analysis of Magnitude, Structure, Evolution and Drivers in the Kyrgyz Republic

This article provides an in-depth regional analysis of the rural nonfarm economy in Kyrgyzstan based on three household budget surveys for 2003, 2005 and 2006. Regression analysis reveals that the share of time spent in the commercial rural nonfarm economy was larger in districts with low agricultural potential, indicating that the rural poor are pushed into accessible but not necessarily very profitable nonfarm activities. This ‘push’ scenario is probably strengthened by the low commercialisation and unfinished institutional reforms in the agricultural sector. Only in a few land-rich districts and in a district with a famous resort was labour ‘pulled’ into a profitable rural nonfarm economy stimulated by agricultural development and other local ‘motors’ of growth.

International labour migration and local rural activities in the Kyrgyz Republic: determinants and trade-offs

This paper uses a representative household-budget survey from the Asian Development Bank to analyse the determinants of international labour migration, distinguishing between seasonal and permanent (long-term) moves and comparing them with determinants of rural local income-generating activities in the Kyrgyz Republic. It has been found that both permanent migration and local nonfarm-wages employment substitute agricultural activities and attract the most educated rural individuals. The difference is that the permanent migration option is unattainable for individuals from poor households with small land holdings. They tend to engage in local nonfarm activities, while those who are educated and have resources to finance the cost of migration choose to leave the country for long periods of time. In contrast to permanent migration, seasonal migration does not require the possession of either higher or vocational education, which can make it potentially less harmful for local development in terms of brain drain.

Microeconomic analysis of rural nonfarm activities in the Kyrgyz Republic: What determines participation and returns?

This paper uses two representative household budget surveys from the Kyrgyz Republic to analyze factors influencing participation and returns from different types of nonfarm activities in 2005 and 2006. Nonfarm activities are found to be most important for the poor, who are pushed out of agriculture due to limited and poor land resources. We also show that different nonfarm activities have different human capital requirements. Unlike other studies, we use the double hurdle model which allows us to demonstrate that a number of variables have different effects on participation and income from nonfarm activities. For example, residing in remote areas and lack of capital are found to stimulate participation in nonfarm activities, but decrease nonfarm income. Overall, the empirical analysis confirms the importance of rural nonfarm activities and indicates that equipping poor households to enable them to move towards better remunerative nonfarm activities should be a priority for Kyrgyz rural policy makers.

International Migration and Local Employment: Analysis of Self-Selection and Earnings in Tajikistan

This paper addresses the issue of self-selection of individuals in international labour migration, non-agricultural and agricultural employment in Tajikistan and its link to earnings from these activities. Unlike most empirical studies, we could attribute selection bias on unobservable characteristics to the allocation of individuals to alternative employment sectors and analyse its impact on earnings abroad and at home. We have found positive selection in migration against local non-agricultural activities and positive selection in local non-agricultural activities against local agricultural activities. This indicates that the most capable individuals with regards to unobservable characteristics choose to migrate, while the somewhat less able choose non-agricultural activities, and individuals with the worst capabilities stay in poorly-paid agricultural activities. Controlling for self-selection, labour income returns to education of migrants and individuals in non-agricultural activities are slightly lower than those from Ordinary Least Squares (OLS).

Do Savings and Credit Institutions Reduce Vulnerability? New Evidence From Mexico

This study examines whether membership in a savings and credit society (SACP) reduces vulnerability to poverty, using a representative survey from the National Savings and Financial Services Bank. The sample of households includes those that are and are not members of a SACP during 2004−2007. This evidence indicates that membership improves income; furthermore, membership decreases the variance in annual household per capita income. Both effects reduce the probability that somebody becomes poor. Finally, the results offer support for the proposition that households that join a SACP have better abilities to smooth consumption in the face of adverse shocks, and thus are less susceptible to shocks, than do households that are not members.