Martin Banse

Central and Eastern European agriculture in an expanding European Union.

A policy information system for agricultural sectors in transition countries productivity of emergent farm structures in C&E Europe transfers and distortions along CEEC food supply chains CEEC accession and the future of agricultural markets and EU expenditure macro-economic implications of extending CAP to CEEC analysis of central and eastern European price and trade policies.

Model collaboration for the improved assessment of biomass supply, demand, and impacts

Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g., partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, and aggregated representation of technologies involved). Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches may provide new, more comprehensive insights, especially into issues that involve multiple economic sectors, different temporal and spatial scales, or various impact categories. Model collaboration consists of aligning and harmonizing input data and scenarios, model comparison and/or model linkage. Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches can help assess (i) the causes of differences and similarities in model output, which is important for interpreting the results for policy‐making and (ii) the linkages, feedbacks, and trade‐offs between different systems and impacts (e.g., economic and natural), which is key to a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts of biomass supply and demand. But, full consistency or integration in assumptions, structure, solution algorithms, dynamics and feedbacks can be difficult to achieve. And, if it is done, it frequently implies a trade‐off in terms of resolution (spatial, temporal, and structural) and/or computation. Three key research areas are selected to illustrate how model collaboration can provide additional ways for tackling some of the shortcomings and uncertainties in the assessment of biomass supply and demand and their impacts. These research areas are livestock production, agricultural residues, and greenhouse gas emissions from land‐use change. Describing how model collaboration might look like in these examples, we show how improved model collaboration can strengthen our ability to project biomass supply, demand, and impacts. This in turn can aid in improving the information for policy‐makers and in taking better‐informed decisions.

Global impacts of European agricultural and biofuel policies

Food supply and food distribution have been and are important issues in the global political arena. The recent emergence of biofuel policies has increased the influence of the policy arena on agricultural production. In this paper we show the regional impact of changes in the European Common Agricultural Policy and biofuel policy. Shifting trade patterns, changes in agricultural production, and expansion of agricultural area or intensification of agriculture result in changes in land use and land use emissions. Higher prices for agricultural crops on the world market together with changing production raise agricultural income. Brazil is the region the most affected. The results show that arrangements or policies will be needed to avoid negative impacts in other regions of changing agricultural or biofuel policies in the European Union.

The International Competitiveness of Hungarian Agriculture: Past Performance and Future Projections

The past and future international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture is assessed by calculating domestic resource cost (DRC) ratios using data for 2000–02 as a base. Future international competitiveness is estimated for 2007 and 2013 under three scenarios: baseline (no accession), accession with historical rates of productivity growth and accession with dynamic improvements in productivity. Predicted price changes were generated by a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which was applied to quantify the implications of the 2004 EU accession. The analysis indicates that accession will have a negative impact on the international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture by increasing land and labour prices. To maintain competitiveness in the arable sector, Hungary will need to achieve dynamic improvements in productivity to offset the effect of higher factor costs. The dairy sector, under all scenarios, is likely to remain internationally uncompetitive.

The agri-food sector in Ukraine: Current situation and market outlook until 2025

This report gives an overview on the Ukrainian agri-food sector and provides an outlook for the developments in agricultural markets for Ukraine, focussing on the main agricultural commodities. For the purpose of the study a detailed dataset and modelling structure for the main agricultural commodities in Ukraine has been developed and integrated into the overall AGMEMOD modelling framework.

Thünen Baseline 2015 – 2025: Agri-economic projections for Germany

This article presents the Thunen Baseline 2015 – 2025, a projection of medium-term developments of the agricultural sector in Germany, addressing agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, income and environmental aspects. The Baseline was established using and combining several models of the Thunen Modelling Network. In the Thunen Baseline 2015 – 2025, a favourable outlook for world agricultural markets, in combination with a weak Euro, contribute to the positive development of many agricultural product prices and farm incomes in Germany. The abolishment of the milk quota and rising milk prices are key factors in the projected increase of milk production to 37 million tons by 2025. However, a sensitivity analysis, based on a scenario which assumes an appreciation of the Euro, highlights the extent to which export-oriented sectors (e.g., the milk sector) depend on macro-economic developments. Germany is the only member state without voluntary coupled support payments in the Baseline. The use of coupled payments in the other EU member states has only small negative effects on Germany. Reduction of ammonia emissions and high regional nitrogen soil surpluses remain among the key environmental challenges for agricultural policy.

Impact of the EU Biofuels Directive on the EU food supply chain

This article analyses the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply chain using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, LEITAP. LEITAP is an extended version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model including improved land market modeling, substitution possibilities between capital and energy, different energy sources including biofuels, feed byproducts of biofuel production and the substitution between different feed components and feed byproducts. The simulation results show that the implementation of the EU BFD has a pronounced impact on the markets of cereals, oilseeds and sugar and shows only with a limited impact on production and consumption of other agri-food commodities not directly affected by biofuel production. As a direct effect of the BFD the harvested area and production of biofuel crops (grains, oilseeds) is expected to increase by 17% and 25%, respectively, and sugar production by 12%. EU imports of these commodities are expected to more than double. The increasing demand for biofuel crops and sugar will raise domestic prices of these commodities by 25% and 19%, respectively, but overall agri-food price inflation will be limited to 3% in the EU and to less than 1% at world market level.

World Markets for Cereal Crops

Cereals, especially corn and wheat, are feedstocks to produce biofuels (e.g., ethanol). However, they are mainly used as food and feed. This chapter describes the global developments of cereal markets, especially wheat, corn and barley with a special focus on major countries. Wheat is mainly used as food. While China and India are large producers, they do not play a role in wheat export markets which are dominated by the European Union (EU), Russia, Canada, the United States (US) and Ukraine. The corn market grew strongly in the last 15 years. The United States is the largest corn producer, consumer and exporter. The barley market, dominated by the European Union, is stagnating. However, exports have increased in the last years. Biofuel policies have increased the demand for corn, especially in the United States, as well as for wheat, especially in the European Union. However due to changing polices this trend is unlikely to continue in the future. Additionally, global trends and possible future developments are discussed.

Thünen-Baseline 2013-2023: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland

Dieser Bericht stellt ausgewahlte Ergebnisse der Thunen-Baseline 2013 - 2023 sowie die zugrunde liegenden Annahmen dar. Fur die Erstellung der Thunen-Baseline wurden eine Reihe von Modellen im Verbund eingesetzt: das allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodell MAGNET, das partielle Gleichgewichtsmodell AGMEMOD, das regionalisierte Programmierungsmodell RAUMIS, das Betriebsgruppenmodell FARMIS sowie die einzelbetrieblichen Modelle TIPI-CAL und TYPICROP. Das Zieljahr der Projektion ist das Jahr 2023. Die Thunen-Baseline stellt keine Prognose der Zukunft dar, sondern beschreibt die erwarteten Entwicklungen unter bestimmten Annahmen zur Entwicklung exogener Faktoren und Politiken. Die Darstellung der Ergebnisse konzentriert sich hauptsachlich auf die Entwicklungen des deutschen Agrarsektors. Die Projektionen beruhen auf den Ende 2013 vorliegenden Daten und Informationen zur weltwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung sowie den im Fruhjahr 2014 bekannten Eckpunkten zur Umsetzung der EU-Agrarreform. Die Thunen-Baseline geht von einer Beibehaltung der derzeitigen Agrarpolitik bzw. der Umsetzung bereits beschlossener Politikanderungen aus. Fur die Thunen-Baseline 2013 - 2023 bedeutet dies im Wesentlichen die Umsetzung der 2013 beschlossenen Reform der Europaischen Agrarpolitik und ihrer nationalen Umsetzung entsprechend des Beschlusses der deutschen Agrarministerkonferenz. Dies beinhaltet die Reduzierung, Umverteilung und das sogenannte Greening der Direktzahlungen, sowie das Auslaufen der Milch- und Zuckerquotenregelungen. [...]

The Impact of Domestic and Global Biofuel Mandates on the German Agricultural Sector

The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of domestic and global biofuel policies on Germanys agricultural sector. The central part of our study is divided into four sections. Section 2 presents in detail the issues that make biofuels a debated topic in todays economic policies. Fundamental aspects of our energy consumption patterns and the geographic location of our natural resources are highlighted together with a quantitative analysis of the recent surge in biofuels output capacity and estimates of their near-future deployment. An introduction to current and future biofuels production technologies is coupled with an overview of recent studies that assess their net contribution to harmful gaseous emissions and energy efficiency. The concerns associated with rising food prices and their likely causes are then briefly examined. Section 3 provides a thorough description of the subsidy, taxation and protection measures granted to biofuels across the world. Current governmental policies in the EU and its member states are given special attention. Section 4 presents the current literature on economic modelling and focuses on partial equilibrium (AGLINK-COSIMO, Impact, Esim, etc.) and general equilibrium frameworks (EPPA, GTAP, etc.). Section 5 simulates the impact of domestic and global biofuel policies in Germany within a Computable General Equilibrium framework. The LEITAP model is introduced. A description of the analysed scenarios is given on the basis of the envisaged biofuel blending mandates described in section 3. The simulation results are then evaluated with respect to production, prices, international trade and land use of the relevant commodities. The outcome clearly indicates that current biofuels policies significantly affect food markets as well as land allocation. The conclusion summarizes the main findings of our study and draws a comparison with results of other publications.