Anne Gerdien Prins

Model collaboration for the improved assessment of biomass supply, demand, and impacts

Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g., partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, and aggregated representation of technologies involved). Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches may provide new, more comprehensive insights, especially into issues that involve multiple economic sectors, different temporal and spatial scales, or various impact categories. Model collaboration consists of aligning and harmonizing input data and scenarios, model comparison and/or model linkage. Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches can help assess (i) the causes of differences and similarities in model output, which is important for interpreting the results for policy‐making and (ii) the linkages, feedbacks, and trade‐offs between different systems and impacts (e.g., economic and natural), which is key to a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts of biomass supply and demand. But, full consistency or integration in assumptions, structure, solution algorithms, dynamics and feedbacks can be difficult to achieve. And, if it is done, it frequently implies a trade‐off in terms of resolution (spatial, temporal, and structural) and/or computation. Three key research areas are selected to illustrate how model collaboration can provide additional ways for tackling some of the shortcomings and uncertainties in the assessment of biomass supply and demand and their impacts. These research areas are livestock production, agricultural residues, and greenhouse gas emissions from land‐use change. Describing how model collaboration might look like in these examples, we show how improved model collaboration can strengthen our ability to project biomass supply, demand, and impacts. This in turn can aid in improving the information for policy‐makers and in taking better‐informed decisions.

Global impacts of European agricultural and biofuel policies

Food supply and food distribution have been and are important issues in the global political arena. The recent emergence of biofuel policies has increased the influence of the policy arena on agricultural production. In this paper we show the regional impact of changes in the European Common Agricultural Policy and biofuel policy. Shifting trade patterns, changes in agricultural production, and expansion of agricultural area or intensification of agriculture result in changes in land use and land use emissions. Higher prices for agricultural crops on the world market together with changing production raise agricultural income. Brazil is the region the most affected. The results show that arrangements or policies will be needed to avoid negative impacts in other regions of changing agricultural or biofuel policies in the European Union.

Prospects for mainstreaming ecosystem goods and services in international policies

Abstract Although most management decisions affecting ecosystem goods and services (EGS) are made at a local level, these local decisions are conditioned by national and international policies. International policy domains provide clear opportunities to mainstream (integrate) EGS in ways that can support poverty reduction. However, positive poverty reduction and EGS outcomes cannot be taken for granted. Mainstreaming EGS needs careful consideration because many of the opportunities identified can reduce poverty, but may have the opposite effect if poorly managed or implemented. A major challenge is to ensure consistent policies across scales and policy domains based on analysis of the local situation. In order to support poverty reduction it matters how the mainstreaming is done and who benefits locally. Based on an analysis of EGS delivery and poverty reduction in drylands, tropical forests and coastal areas in the tropics, this paper analyses the prospects of mainstreaming EGS in a number of relevant international policy domains including: i) development assistance; ii) trade; iii) climate change and; iv) international financial institutions. For these policy domains it is analyzed how mainstreaming EGS can contribute to reaching poverty reduction and development goals, what relevant policy tracks for mainstreaming EGS exist, and what priority issues should mainstreaming focus on. The paper next provides an overview of possible tools and mechanisms for mainstreaming and ends with conclusions on what the role of the CBD can be in mainstreaming.

Evaluating the macroeconomic impacts of bio-based applications in the EU

In 2012, the European Commission (EC) launched the Bioeconomy Strategy and Action Plan with the objective of establishing a resource efficient and competitive society that reconciles food security with the sustainable use of renewable resources. This report contributes to the plan by evaluating the macroeconomic impacts of bio-based applications in the EU. Such effects can only be evaluated with a computable general equilibrium model such as MAGNET. Four bio-based applications are considered, namely biofuel (second generation), biochemicals, bioelectricity, and biogas (synthetic natural gas). This is done assuming that 1 EJ lignocellulose biomass is converted into fuel, chemicals, electricity and gas and that the final product replaces an equal amount of conventional (e.g. fossil energy) product (on energy basis). The results show that given the assumed efficiency of conversion technology, costs of conversion, biomass price and oil price, the production of second generation biofuel and biochemicals are the only competitive sectors compare to their conventional counterparts in the year 2030 for the EU. In the case of the fuel sectors, it represents a net GDP effect of 5.1 billion US

Indirect land use change emissions related to EU biofuel consumption: an analysis based on historical data

while biochemicals generates 6 billion US

Pathways to achieve a set of ambitious global sustainability objectives by 2050: Explorations using the IMAGE integrated assessment model

. A substantial part of this impact can be explained by the increase in wages, since the production of biomass is relatively labour intensive. The resulting increase in wages is transmitted to other sectors in the economy and increases production and consumption. Another important contributor is the lower oil and fuel price as a result of the substitution of oil based fuel production by bio-based fuel production, which in turn benefits the entire economy.