Martin J. P. Sullivan

An Anthropogenic Habitat Facilitates the Establishment of Non-Native Birds by Providing Underexploited Resources

Anthropogenic modification of habitats may reduce the resources available for native species, leading to population declines and extinction. These same habitats often have the highest richness of non-native species. This pattern may be explained if recently human-modified habitats provide novel resources that are more accessible to non-native species than native species. Using non-native birds in the Iberian Peninsula as a case study, we conduct a large-scale study to investigate whether non-native species are positively associated with human modified habitats, and to investigate whether this positive association may be driven by the presence of resources that are not fully exploited by native species. We do this by comparing the functional diversity and resource use of native and non-native bird communities in a recently human-modified habitat (rice fields) and in more traditional habitats in the Iberian Peninsula. The functional diversity of native bird communities was lower in rice fields, but non-native birds were positively associated with rice fields and plugged this gap. Differences in resource use between native and non-native species allowed non-native species to exploit resources that were plentiful in rice fields, supporting the role of underexploited resources in driving the positive association of non-native birds with rice fields. Our results provide a potential mechanism explaining the positive association of non-native species with anthropogenic habitats, and further work is needed to test if this applies more generally.

Evidence for the buffer effect operating in multiple species at a national scale.

A long-standing aim of ecologists is to understand the processes involved in regulating populations. One such mechanism is the buffer effect, where lower quality habitats are increasingly used as a species reaches higher population densities, with a resultant average reduction in fecundity and survival limiting population growth. Although the buffer effect has been demonstrated in populations of a number of species, a test of its importance in influencing population growth rates of multiple species across large spatial scales is lacking. Here, we use habitat-specific population trends for 85 bird species from long-term national monitoring data (the UK Breeding Bird Survey) to examine its generality. We find that both patterns of population change and changes in habitat preference are consistent with the predictions of the buffer effect, providing support for its widespread operation.

Grassland responses to increased rainfall depend on the timescale of forcing

Forecasting impacts of future climate change is an important challenge to biologists, both for understanding the consequences of different emissions trajectories and for developing adaptation measures that will minimize biodiversity loss. Existing variation provides a window into the effects of climate on species and ecosystems, but in many places does not encompass the levels or timeframes of forcing expected under directional climatic change. Experiments help us to fill in these uncertainties, simulating directional shifts to examine outcomes of new levels and sustained changes in conditions. Here, we explore the translation between short-term responses to climate variability and longer-term trajectories that emerge under directional climatic change. In a decade-long experiment, we compare effects of short-term and long-term forcings across three trophic levels in grassland plots subjected to natural and experimental variation in precipitation. For some biological responses (plant productivity), responses to long-term extension of the rainy season were consistent with short-term responses, while for others (plant species richness, abundance of invertebrate herbivores and predators), there was pronounced divergence of long-term trajectories from short-term responses. These differences between biological responses mean that sustained directional changes in climate can restructure ecological relationships characterizing a system. Importantly, a positive relationship between plant diversity and productivity turned negative under one scenario of climate change, with a similar change in the relationship between plant productivity and consumer biomass. Inferences from experiments such as this form an important part of wider efforts to understand the complexities of climate change responses.

Long-term carbon sink in Borneo's forests halted by drought and vulnerable to edge effects

Less than half of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere. While carbon balance models imply large carbon uptake in tropical forests, direct on-the-ground observations are still lacking in Southeast Asia. Here, using long-term plot monitoring records of up to half a century, we find that intact forests in Borneo gained 0.43 Mg C ha−1 per year (95% CI 0.14–0.72, mean period 1988–2010) in above-ground live biomass carbon. These results closely match those from African and Amazonian plot networks, suggesting that the world’s remaining intact tropical forests are now en masse out-of-equilibrium. Although both pan-tropical and long-term, the sink in remaining intact forests appears vulnerable to climate and land use changes. Across Borneo the 1997–1998 El Niño drought temporarily halted the carbon sink by increasing tree mortality, while fragmentation persistently offset the sink and turned many edge-affected forests into a carbon source to the atmosphere.The existence of a pan-tropical forest carbon sink remains uncertain due to the lack of data from Asia. Here, using direct on-the-ground observations, the authors confirm remaining intact forests in Borneo have provided a long-term carbon sink, but carbon net gains are vulnerable to drought and edge effects.

Tropical land carbon cycle responses to 2015/16 El Niño as recorded by atmospheric greenhouse gas and remote sensing data

The outstanding tropical land climate characteristic over the past decades is rapid warming, with no significant large-scale precipitation trends. This warming is expected to continue but the effects on tropical vegetation are unknown. El Niño-related heat peaks may provide a test bed for a future hotter world. Here we analyse tropical land carbon cycle responses to the 2015/16 El Niño heat and drought anomalies using an atmospheric transport inversion. Based on the global atmospheric CO2 and fossil fuel emission records, we find no obvious signs of anomalously large carbon release compared with earlier El Niño events, suggesting resilience of tropical vegetation. We find roughly equal net carbon release anomalies from Amazonia and tropical Africa, approximately 0.5 PgC each, and smaller carbon release anomalies from tropical East Asia and southern Africa. Atmospheric CO anomalies reveal substantial fire carbon release from tropical East Asia peaking in October 2015 while fires contribute only a minor amount to the Amazonian carbon flux anomaly. Anomalously large Amazonian carbon flux release is consistent with downregulation of primary productivity during peak negative near-surface water anomaly (October 2015 to March 2016) as diagnosed by solar-induced fluorescence. Finally, we find an unexpected anomalous positive flux to the atmosphere from tropical Africa early in 2016, coincident with substantial CO release. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

A national-scale model of linear features improves predictions of farmland biodiversity

Summary Modelling species distribution and abundance is important for many conservation applications, but it is typically performed using relatively coarse‐scale environmental variables such as the area of broad land‐cover types. Fine‐scale environmental data capturing the most biologically relevant variables have the potential to improve these models. For example, field studies have demonstrated the importance of linear features, such as hedgerows, for multiple taxa, but the absence of large‐scale datasets of their extent prevents their inclusion in large‐scale modelling studies. We assessed whether a novel spatial dataset mapping linear and woody‐linear features across the UK improves the performance of abundance models of 18 bird and 24 butterfly species across 3723 and 1547 UK monitoring sites, respectively. Although improvements in explanatory power were small, the inclusion of linear features data significantly improved model predictive performance for many species. For some species, the importance of linear features depended on landscape context, with greater importance in agricultural areas. Synthesis and applications. This study demonstrates that a national‐scale model of the extent and distribution of linear features improves predictions of farmland biodiversity. The ability to model spatial variability in the role of linear features such as hedgerows will be important in targeting agri‐environment schemes to maximally deliver biodiversity benefits. Although this study focuses on farmland, data on the extent of different linear features are likely to improve species distribution and abundance models in a wide range of systems and also can potentially be used to assess habitat connectivity.

Field methods for sampling tree height for tropical forest biomass estimation

Abstract Quantifying the relationship between tree diameter and height is a key component of efforts to estimate biomass and carbon stocks in tropical forests. Although substantial site‐to‐site variation in height–diameter allometries has been documented, the time consuming nature of measuring all tree heights in an inventory plot means that most studies do not include height, or else use generic pan‐tropical or regional allometric equations to estimate height. Using a pan‐tropical dataset of 73 plots where at least 150 trees had in‐field ground‐based height measurements, we examined how the number of trees sampled affects the performance of locally derived height–diameter allometries, and evaluated the performance of different methods for sampling trees for height measurement. Using cross‐validation, we found that allometries constructed with just 20 locally measured values could often predict tree height with lower error than regional or climate‐based allometries (mean reduction in prediction error = 0.46 m). The predictive performance of locally derived allometries improved with sample size, but with diminishing returns in performance gains when more than 40 trees were sampled. Estimates of stand‐level biomass produced using local allometries to estimate tree height show no over‐ or under‐estimation bias when compared with biomass estimates using field measured heights. We evaluated five strategies to sample trees for height measurement, and found that sampling strategies that included measuring the heights of the ten largest diameter trees in a plot outperformed (in terms of resulting in local height–diameter models with low height prediction error) entirely random or diameter size‐class stratified approaches. Our results indicate that even limited sampling of heights can be used to refine height–diameter allometries. We recommend aiming for a conservative threshold of sampling 50 trees per location for height measurement, and including the ten trees with the largest diameter in this sample.

Differences in leaf thermoregulation and water use strategies between three co-occurring Atlantic forest tree species: Leaf energy balance of Atlantic forest trees

In the first study of leaf energy balance in tropical montane forests, we observed current leaf temperature patterns in the Atlantic forest, Brazil, and assessed whether and why patterns may vary among species. We found large leaf‐to‐air temperature differences that were influenced strongly by radiation and differences in leaf temperature between 2 species due to variation in leaf width and stomatal conductance. We highlight the importance of leaf functional traits for leaf thermoregulation and also note that the high radiation levels that occur in montane forests may exacerbate the threat from increasing air temperatures.

Changes in habitat associations during range expansion: disentangling the effects of climate and residence time

The distributions of many species are not at equilibrium with their environment. This includes spreading non-native species and species undergoing range shifts in response to climate change. The habitat associations of these species may change during range expansion as less favourable climatic conditions at expanding range margins constrain species to use only the most favourable habitats, violating the species distribution model assumption of stationarity. Alternatively, changes in habitat associations could result from density-dependent habitat selection; at range margins, population densities are initially low so species can exhibit density-independent selection of the most favourable habitats, while in the range core, where population densities are higher, species spread into less favourable habitat. We investigate if the habitat preferences of the non-native common waxbill Estrilda astrild changed as they spread in three directions (north, east and south-east) in the Iberian Peninsula. There are different degrees of climatic suitability and colonization speed across range expansion axes, allowing us to separate the effects of climate from residence time. In contrast to previous studies we find a stronger effect of residence time than climate in influencing the prevalence of common waxbills. As well as a strong additive effect of residence time, there were some changes in habitat associations, which were consistent with density-dependent habitat selection. The combination of broader habitat associations and higher prevalence in areas that have been colonised for longer means that species distribution models constructed early in the invasion process are likely to underestimate species’ potential distribution.

Height-diameter input data and R-code to fit and assess height-diameter models, from 'Field methods for sampling tree height for tropical forest biomass estimation' in Methods in Ecology and Evolution

1. Quantifying the relationship between tree diameter and height is a key component of efforts to estimate biomass and carbon stocks in tropical forests. Although substantial site-to-site variation in height-diameter allometries has been documented, the time consuming nature of measuring all tree heights in an inventory plot means that most studies do not include height, or else use generic pan-tropical or regional allometric equations to estimate height. 2. Using a pan-tropical dataset of 73 plots where at least 150 trees had in-field ground-based height measurements, we examined how the number of trees sampled affects the performance of locally-derived height-diameter allometries, and evaluated the performance of different methods for sampling trees for height measurement. 3. Using cross-validation, we found that allometries constructed with just 20 locally measured values could often predict tree height with lower error than regional or climate-based allometries (mean reduction in prediction error = 0.46 m). The predictive performance of locally-derived allometries improved with sample size, but with diminishing returns in performance gains when more than 40 trees were sampled. Estimates of stand-level biomass produced using local allometries to estimate tree height show no over- or under-estimation bias when compared with estimates using measured heights. We evaluated five strategies to sample trees for height measurement, and found that sampling strategies that included measuring the heights of the ten largest diameter trees in a plot outperformed (in terms of resulting in local height-diameter models with low height prediction error) entirely random or diameter size-class stratified approaches. 4. Our results indicate that even remarkably limited sampling of heights can be used to refine height-diameter allometries. We recommend aiming for a conservative threshold of sampling 50 trees per location for height measurement, and including the ten trees with the largest diameter in this sample.