Martin L. Levin

Traditions of Research on the Diffusion of Innovation

dent, chance resulting from chance. Theory in the sense of conceptions of relationships between kinds of events is an inescapable step in the comprehension of social processes, and we must assume that such comprehension in a scientific sense is possible. Theory, however, must be formulated in the light of an awareness of events, on the one hand, and, on the other, a readiness to accept them as manageable within the limits of a generalizing science. The argument of this essay is that theory-building for attacking the problem of change has been hampered in both evolutionist and functionalist analyses by an orientation that encourages the derivation of sources of change from the nature of the thing changing. Sources of change in societies are to be discerned in happenings, and whether the happenings are internal or external to a conceived system, they are not deducible from that conception. Processes of social change are conceptual arrangeabilities of events.82

Multiple Meanings of Minority Concentration: Incorporating Contextual Explanations into the Analysis of Individual-Level U.S. Black Mortality Outcomes

Prior research on mortality for U.S. blacks focuses on the detrimental effects of minority concentration and residential segregation in metropolitan areas on health outcomes. To date, few studies have examined this relationship outside of large U.S. central cities. In this paper, we extend current research on the minority concentration and mortality relationship to explain the rural advantage in mortality for nonmetropolitan blacks. Using data from the 1986–1994 linked National Health Interview Survey/National Death Index, we examine the rural-urban gap in mortality for U.S. blacks. Our findings indicate that blacks in nonmetropolitan areas experience a lower risk of mortality than metropolitan central city blacks after indicators of socio-economic and health status are controlled. Our findings also point to the importance of accounting for contextual factors. Net of individual level controls, minority concentration exerts differential effects across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, such that nonmetropolitan black residents experience a lower risk of mortality in high minority concentration areas than blacks in metropolitan central city areas. This finding suggests a reconceptualization of the meaning for minority concentration with respect to studies of health outcomes in nonmetropolitan communities.

The Impact of Marital History of Current Husband on the Fertility of Remarried White Women in the United States.

The lower fertility rate generally found to accompany interrupted marriages has been explained as resulting from a lessened exposure to conception. This explanation must be reexamined however in light of changing fertility trends in the U.S. and changing socioemotional factors associated with marriage and remarriage. (For example the maximum of 3 pregnancies experienced by U.S. women today requires only 6 1/4 of the 20 years of marital fertility even with 2 years interpartum so relatively short interruptions in exposure should not lead to biological reductions in fertility.) A sample of 3727 currently married spouse-present white women age 40-52 representative of the 1967 U.S. population was analyzed to determine the extent to which a remarried womens fertility was due to her subsequent marriage. It was found that fertility varied according to the marital history of both spouses and that regardless of the wifes marital history fertility is reduced when the husband has been previously married. Also the fertility of remarried women who bore children in the 1st marriage is reduced in the subsequent marriage. Thus it is suggested that previous fertility rather than previous marriage acts as a deterent upon fertility in later marriages. A study of the pressures that accompanied parenthood in a 1st marriage which cause it to be avoided in a 2nd would thus be an interesting venture. Because of the increasing frequency of serial marriage in the U.S. data collected which would reveal fertility patterns (especially the 1980 census) should record the fertility per marriage experience of males as well as females.

Ready, Set, Go: African American Preadolescents’ Sexual Thoughts, Intentions, and Behaviors

Understanding of preadolescent sexuality is limited. To help fill this gap, we calculated frequencies, percentages, and confidence intervals for 1,096 preadolescents’ reports of sexual thoughts, intentions, and sexual behavior. Cochran-Armitage trend tests accounted for age effects. Findings show that 9-year-olds are readying for sexual activity, with sexual readiness increasing between ages of 9 and 12. Sexual thoughts increased with age (p < .001): 46% of 9-year-olds and 70% of 12-year-olds were ready to learn about sex, and 14% of 9-year-olds and 41% of 12-year-olds thought about having sex. Few 9-year-olds anticipated sexual debut, but this increased with age (p < .05): 25% of 12-year-olds were ready for sex, and 20% anticipated initiating sex within a year. Our results indicate that preadolescents are initiating dating relationships and anticipating intercourse, and some have engaged in risk behaviors. Thus preadolescence is a critical time to implement prevention programs.