Martin Pesendorfer

A Study of Collusion in First-Price Auctions

This paper examines the bidding for school milk contracts in Florida and Texas during the 1980s. In both states firms were convicted of bid-rigging. The data and legal evidence suggest that the cartels in the two states allocate contracts in different ways: One cartel divides the market among members, while the other cartel also uses side payments to compensate members for refraining from bidding. We show that both forms of cartel agreements are almost optimal, provided the number of contracts is sufficiently large. In the auction the cartel bidder may face competition from non-cartel bidders. The presence of an optimal cartel induces an asymmetry in the auction. The selected cartel bidder is bidding as a representative of a group and has on average a lower cost than a non-cartel bidder. The data support the predicted equilibrium bidding behaviour in asymmetric auctions in accordance with optimal cartels.

Retail Sales: A Study of Pricing Behavior in Supermarkets

This article examines temporary price reductions, or sales, on ketchup products in supermarkets in Springfield, Missouri, between 1986 and 1988. The descriptive data analysis indicates that intertemporal demand effects are present. A model of intertemporal pricing in which demand increases with the number of time periods since the last sale is considered and confronted with the data. The estimates indicate that demand increases in the time elapsed since the last sale. The timing of ketchup sales is well explained by the number of time periods since the last sale. Also, competition between retailers for accumulated shoppers influences the sale decision.

Information Structures in Optimal Auctions

A seller wishes to sell an object to one of multiple bidders. The valuations of the bidders are privately known. We consider the joint design problem in which the seller can decide the accuracy by which bidders learn their valuation and to whom to sell at what price. We establish that optimal information structures in an optimal auction exhibit a number of properties: (i) information structures can be represented by monotone partitions, (ii) the cardinality of each partition is finite, (iii) the partitions are asymmetric across agents. These properties imply that the optimal selling strategy of a seller can be implemented by a sequence of exclusive take-it or leave-it offers.

Horizontal mergers in the paper industry

This paper examines mergers and acquisitions in the US paper and paperboard industry. This industry experienced a wave of horizontal mergers during the mid 1980s. We study implications of mergers on consumers, rival firms, and welfare. The analysis is based on a model of investment decisions. We compare the equilibrium investment decisions prior to and after the merger wave. The evidence indicates that the efficiency of the majority of acquiring firms increases following an acquisition. Based on the parameter estimates, we calculate merger welfare effects. We find that total welfare increased by

Bidding behavior in a repeated procurement auction: A summary

583.5 million as a result of the mergers.

Combination Bidding in Multi-Unit Auctions

Abstract This paper considers bidding behavior in a repeated procurement auction setting. We study highway procurement data for the state of California between December 1994 and October 1998. We consider a dynamic bidding model that takes into account the presence of intertemporal constraints such as capacity constraints. We estimate the model non-parametrically and assess the presence of dynamic constraints in bidding.

Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games: A Comment

This paper considers the problem of identification and estimation in the first-price multi-unit auction. It is motivated by the auctions of bus routes held in London where bidders submit bids on combinations of routes as well as on individual routes. We show that submitting a combination bid lower than the sum of the bids on the constituent routes does not require cost synergies and can instead serve as a tool to leverage market power across the different routes. As a result, the welfare consequences of allowing combination bidding in the first price auction are ambiguous, and depend on the importance of the cost synergies. We provide conditions for non-parametric identification of the multidimensional private information in the multi-unit first price auction and derive partial identification results when they are not satisfied. We propose an estimation method consisting of two stages: In the first stage, the distribution of bids is estimated parametrically. In the second stage, the (set of) costs and distribution(s) of costs consistent with the observed behavior are inferred based on the first order conditions for optimally chosen bids. We apply the estimation method to data from the London bus routes market. We quantify the magnitude of cost synergies and assess possible efficiency losses arising in this market.

Viennese Chairs: A Case Study for Modern Industrialization

Recursive procedures which are based on iterating on the best response mapping have difficulties converging to all equilibria in multi-player games. We illustrate these difficulties by revisiting the asymptotic properties of the iterative nested pseudo maximum likelihood method for estimating dynamic games introduced by Aguirregabiria and Mira (2007). An example shows that the iterative method may not be consistent.

Pooling data across markets in dynamic Markov games

We examine the Austro-Hungarian bentwood furniture industry as a case study for modem industrialization during the second half of the nineteenth centuly. We establish that, through the implementation of innovative production methods and aggressive and insightful marketing strategies, this industry constitutes an important example of the modem industrial enterprise. Furthermore, we find evidence of cooperative behavior in the industry, making it an interesting case study in the history of industrial organization.

Asymptotic least squares estimators for dynamic games

This paper proposes several statistical tests for finite state Markov games to examine whether data from distinct markets can be pooled. We formulate homogeneity tests of (i) the conditional choice and state transition probabilities, (ii) the steady‐state distribution, and (iii) the conditional state distribution given an initial state. The null hypotheses of these homogeneity tests are necessary conditions (or maintained assumptions) for poolability of the data. Thus rejections of these null imply that the data cannot be pooled across markets. Acceptances of these null are considered as supporting evidences for the maintained assumptions of estimation using pooled data. In a Monte Carlo study we find that the test based on the steady‐state distribution performs well and has high power even with small numbers of markets and time periods. We apply the tests to the empirical study of Ryan (2012) that analyzes dynamics of the U.S. Portland cement industry and assess if the data across markets can be pooled.