Martin Utley

Cancer prevalence in the United Kingdom: estimates for 2008

Background:Identifying and addressing the requirements of cancer survivors is currently a high priority for the NHS, yet little is known about the population of cancer survivors in the United Kingdom.Methods:Data from cancer registries in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales were analysed to provide limited-duration prevalence estimates for 2004. Log-linear regression models were used to extend these to complete prevalence estimates. Trends in prevalence from 2000 to 2004 were used to project complete prevalence estimates forward from 2004 to 2008.Results:We estimated that in total, there were 2 million cancer survivors in the United Kingdom at the end of 2008, ∼3% of the population overall and 1 in 8 of those aged 65 years and more. Prostate and female breast cancers were the most prevalent. The number of cancer survivors is increasing by ∼3% each year. Estimates are also provided by time since diagnosis.Conclusion:These estimates are the most up-to-date available, and as such will be useful for statutory and voluntary sector organisations that are responsible for planning and providing treatment and support to cancer survivors in the United Kingdom.

Projections of cancer prevalence in the United Kingdom, 2010-2040.

Background:There are currently two million cancer survivors in the United Kingdom, and in recent years this number has grown by 3% per annum. The aim of this paper is to provide long-term projections of cancer prevalence in the United Kingdom.Methods:National cancer registry data for England were used to estimate cancer prevalence in the United Kingdom in 2009. Using a model of prevalence as a function of incidence, survival and population demographics, projections were made to 2040. Different scenarios of future incidence and survival, and their effects on cancer prevalence, were also considered. Colorectal, lung, prostate, female breast and all cancers combined (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) were analysed separately.Results:Assuming that existing trends in incidence and survival continue, the number of cancer survivors in the United Kingdom is projected to increase by approximately one million per decade from 2010 to 2040. Particularly large increases are anticipated in the oldest age groups, and in the number of long-term survivors. By 2040, almost a quarter of people aged at least 65 will be cancer survivors.Conclusion:Increasing cancer survival and the growing/ageing population of the United Kingdom mean that the population of survivors is likely to grow substantially in the coming decades, as are the related demands upon the health service. Plans must, therefore, be laid to ensure that the varied needs of cancer survivors can be met in the future.

Identification of systems failures in successful paediatric cardiac surgery

Patient safety will benefit from an approach to human error that examines systemic causes, rather than blames individuals. This study describes a direct observation methodology, based on a threat and error model, prospectively to identify types and sources of systems failures in paediatric cardiac surgery. Of substantive interest were the range, frequency and types of failures that could be identified and whether minor failures could accumulate to form more serious events, as has been the case in other industries. Check lists, notes and video recordings were employed to observe 24 successful operations. A total of 366 failures were recorded. Coordination and communication problems, equipment problems, a relaxed safety culture, patient-related problems and perfusion-related problems were most frequent, with a smaller number of skill, knowledge and decision-making failures. Longer and more risky operations were likely to generate a greater number of minor failures than shorter and lower risk operations, and in seven higher-risk cases frequently occurring minor failures accumulated to threaten the safety of the patient. Non-technical errors were more prevalent than technical errors and task threats were the most prevalent systemic source of error. Adverse events in surgery are likely to be associated with a number of recurring and prospectively identifiable errors. These may be co-incident and cumulative human errors predisposed by threats embedded in the system, rather than due to individual incompetence or negligence. Prospectively identifying and reducing these recurrent failures would lead to improved surgical standards and enhanced patient safety.

Pulmonary metastasectomy in colorectal cancer: a systematic review and quantitative synthesis

Summary Objectives Surgical removal of pulmonary metastases from colorectal cancer is undertaken increasingly but the practice is variable. There have been no randomized trials of effectiveness. We needed evidence from a systematic review to plan a randomized controlled trial. Design A formal search for all studies concerning the practice of pulmonary metastasectomy was undertaken including all published articles using pre-specified keywords. Abstracts were screened, reviewed and data extracted by at least two of the authors. Information across studies was collated in a quantitative synthesis. Results Of 101 articles identified, 51 contained sufficient quantitative information to be included in the synthesis. The reports were published between 1971 and 2007, and reported on 3504 patients. There was little change over time in patient characteristics such as age, sex, the time elapsed since resection of the primary cancer, its site or stage. The proportion with multiple metastases or elevated carcinoma embryonic antigen (CEA) did not change over time but there was an apparent increase in the proportion of patients who also had hepatic metastasectomy. Differences in 5-year survival between groups defined by CEA or by single versus multiple metastases persisted over time. Few data were available concerning postoperative morbidity, postoperative lung function or change in symptoms. Conclusion The quality of evidence available concerning pulmonary metastasectomy in colorectal cancer is not sufficient to draw inferences concerning the effectiveness of this surgery. There is great variety in what was reported and its utility. Given the burdensome nature of the surgery involved, better evidence, ideally in the form of a randomized trial, is required for the continuance of this practice.

The Papworth Bleeding Risk Score: a stratification scheme for identifying cardiac surgery patients at risk of excessive early postoperative bleeding

OBJECTIVE We have developed a risk stratification score to identify cardiac surgical patients at higher risk of severe postoperative bleeding to aid a decision of whether to use a specific intervention preoperatively. METHODS We prospectively created a database of 11592 consecutive patients, who underwent cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. An adverse outcome was formally defined as a mean blood loss exceeding 2 ml kg(-1)h(-1) measured between arrival in the intensive care unit (ICU) and the earliest of the elapse of 3h; the start of transfusion of any one of fresh-frozen plasma, platelets or cryoprecipitate; return to theatre or death. Univariate and multivariate associations of severe postoperative bleeding with patient characteristics, clinical features and procedure details were analysed on a development set. The final risk stratification scheme was then evaluated on a test set. RESULTS Severe postoperative bleeding was associated with urgent or emergency surgery, surgery that was not coronary artery bypass grafting or single valve surgery, presence of aortic valve disease, low body mass index and older age. A risk stratification score was constructed from the above variables to define preoperative categories that demonstrated high, medium and low risk of severe postoperative bleeding. Patients deemed to be at high, medium and low risk by our preoperative scoring had a 21% (95% confidence interval: 18-24%), 8% (7-10%) and 3% (2-4%) rate of severe postoperative bleeding, respectively, within the test set. CONCLUSION We have developed a simple risk stratification score that can separate, preoperatively, patients into risk groups with markedly different rates of severe postoperative bleeding.

Estimation of potential effects of improved community-based drug provision, to augment health-facility strengthening, on maternal mortality due to post-partum haemorrhage and sepsis in sub-Saharan Africa: an equity-effectiveness model

BACKGROUND Maternal mortality in Africa has changed little since 1990. We developed a mathematical model with the aim to assess whether improved community-based access to life-saving drugs, to augment a core programme of health-facility strengthening, could reduce maternal mortality due to post-partum haemorrhage or sepsis. METHODS We developed a mathematical model by considering the key events leading to maternal death from post-partum haemorrhage or sepsis after delivery. With parameter estimates from published work of occurrence of post-partum haemorrhage and sepsis, case fatality, and the effectiveness of drugs, we used this model to estimate the effect of three potential packages of interventions: 1) health-facility strengthening; 2) health-facility strengthening combined with improved drug provision via antenatal-care appointments and community health workers; and 3) all interventions in package two combined with improved community-based drug provision via female volunteers in villages. The model was applied to Malawi and sub-Saharan Africa. FINDINGS In the implementation of the model, the lowest risk deliveries were those in health facilities. With the model we estimated that of 2860 maternal deaths from post-partum haemorrhage or sepsis per year in Malawi, intervention package one could prevent 210 (7%) deaths, package two 720 (25%) deaths, and package three 1020 (36%) deaths. In sub-Saharan Africa, we estimated that of 182 000 of such maternal deaths per year, these three packages could prevent 21 300 (12%), 43 800 (24%), and 59 000 (32%) deaths, respectively. The estimated effect of community-based drug provision was greatest for the poorest women. INTERPRETATION Community provision of misoprostol and antibiotics to reduce maternal deaths from post-partum haemorrhage and sepsis could be a highly effective addition to health-facility strengthening in Africa. Investigation of such interventions is urgently needed to establish the risks, benefits, and challenges of widespread implementation. FUNDING Institute of Child Health and Faculty of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University College London, and a donation from John and Ann-Margaret Walton.

Pulmonary metastasectomy for sarcoma: a systematic review of reported outcomes in the context of Thames Cancer Registry data

Objectives Sarcoma has a predilection to metastasis to the lungs. Surgical excision of these metastases (pulmonary metastasectomy) when possible has become standard practice. We reviewed the published selection and outcome data. Design Systematic review of published reports that include survival rates or any other outcome data. Survival data were put in the context of those in a cancer registry. Setting Specialist thoracic surgical centres reporting the selection and outcome for pulmonary metastasectomy in 18 follow-up studies published 1991–2010. Participants Patients having one or more of 1357 pulmonary metastasectomy operations performed between 1980 and 2006. Interventions All patients had surgical pulmonary metastasectomy. A first operation was reported in 1196 patients. Of 1357 patients, 43% had subsequent metastasectomy, some having 10 or more thoracotomies. Three studies were confined to patients having repeated pulmonary metastasectomy. Primary and secondary outcome measures Survival data to various time points usually 5 years and sometimes 3 or 10 years. No symptomatic or quality of life data were reported. Results About 34% and 25% of patients were alive 5 years after a first metastasectomy operation for bone or soft tissues sarcoma respectively. Better survival was reported with fewer metastases and longer intervals between diagnosis and the appearance of metastases. In the Thames Cancer Registry for 1985–1994 and 1995–2004 5 year survival rates for all patients with metastatic sarcoma were 20% and 25% for bone, and for soft tissue sarcoma 13% and 15%. Conclusions The 5 year survival rate among sarcoma patients who are selected to have pulmonary metastasectomy is higher than that observed among unselected registry data for patients with any metastatic disease at diagnosis. There is no evidence that survival difference is attributable to metastasectomy. No data were found on respiratory or any other symptomatic benefit. Given the certain harm associated with thoracotomy, often repeated, better evidence is required.

How many births in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will not be attended by a skilled birth attendant between 2011 and 2015?

BackgroundThe fifth Millennium Development Goal target for 90% of births in low and middle income countries to have a skilled birth attendant (SBA) by 2015 will not be met. In response to this, policy has focused on increasing SBA access. However, reducing maternal mortality also requires policies to prevent deaths among women giving birth unattended. We aimed to generate estimates of the absolute number of non-SBA births between 2011 and 2015 in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, given optimistic assumptions of future trends in SBA attendance. These estimates could be used by decision makers to inform the extent to which reductions in maternal mortality will depend on policies aimed specifically at those women giving birth unattended.MethodsFor each country within South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa we estimated recent trends in SBA attendance and used these as the basis for three increasingly optimistic projections for future changes in SBA attendance. For each country we obtained estimates for the current SBA attendance in rural and urban settings and forecasts for the number of births and changes in rural/urban population over 2011-2015. Based on these, we calculated estimates for the number of non-SBA births for 2011-2015 under a variety of scenarios.ResultsConservative estimates are that there will be between 130 and 180 million non-SBA births in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa from 2011 to 2015 (90% of these in rural areas). Currently, there are more non-SBA births per year in South Asia than sub-Saharan Africa, but our projections suggest that the regions will have approximately the same number of non-SBA births by 2015. We also present results for each of the six countries currently accounting for more than 50% of global maternal deaths.ConclusionsOver the next five years, many millions of women within South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will give birth without an SBA. Efforts to improve access to skilled attendance should be accompanied by interventions to improve the safety of non-attended deliveries.

Assessment of whether in-hospital mortality for lobectomy is a useful standard for the quality of lung cancer surgery: retrospective study

Objectives To calculate in-hospital mortality after lobectomy for primary lung cancer in the United Kingdom; to explore the validity of using such data to assess the quality of UK thoracic surgeons; and to investigate the relation between in-hospital mortality and the number of procedures performed by surgeons. Design Retrospective study. Setting 36 departments dealing with thoracic surgery in UK hospitals. Participants 4028 patients who had undergone lobectomy for primary lung cancer by one of 102 surgeons. Main outcome measures In-hospital mortality in relation to individual surgeons, among all patients, and among each of five groups of patients defined by the number of operations performed by the surgeon. Results 103 patients (2.6%, 95% confidence interval 2.1% to 3.1%) died after surgery during the same hospital admission. No significant difference was found for in-hospital mortality between the five groups. Conclusions The number of procedures performed by a thoracic surgeon is not related to in-hospital mortality. Reporting data on in-hospital mortality after lobectomy for primary lung cancer is a poor tool for measuring a surgeons performance.

Providing feedback to hospital doctors about prescribing errors; a pilot study

Objective To assess the feasibility and acceptability of obtaining data on prescribing error rates in routine practice, and presenting feedback on such errors to medical staff. Setting One clinical directorate of a London teaching trust. Methods Ward pharmacists recorded all prescribing errors identified in newly written medication orders on one day each fortnight between February and May 2005. We examined prescribing errors reported on the trust’s medication incident database for the same period. Main outcome measures Prescribing errors identified and recorded by ward pharmacists, prescribing errors reported as incident reports; prescribing error rates per clinical specialty; lead consultants’ views on receiving feedback on errors for their specialty. Results During eight data collection days, 4,995 new medication orders were examined. Of these, 462 (9.2%; 95% confidence interval 8.5 –10.1%) contained at least one prescribing error. There were 474 errors in total. Pharmacists indicated that they would have reported 19 (4%) of the prescribing errors as medication incidents. Eight prescribing errors were reported for the entire four-month study period on non-data collection days. Feedback was presented to lead clinicians of 10 clinical specialties. This included graphical summaries showing how the specialty compared with others, and a list of errors identified. This information was well-received by clinicians. Conclusion Prescribing errors identified by ward pharmacists can be systematically fed back at the level of the clinical specialty; this is acceptable to the consultants involved. Incident report data is subject to gross under-reporting. Routinely providing feedback for each consultant team or for individual prescribers will require more focussed data collection.