Massimo Nespoli

The importance of earthquake interactions for injection‐induced seismicity: Retrospective modeling of the Basel Enhanced Geothermal System

Author(s): Catalli, F; Rinaldi, AP; Gischig, V; Nespoli, M; Wiemer, S | Abstract: ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. We explore the role of earthquake interactions during an injection-induced seismic sequence. We propose a model, which considers both a transient pressure and static stress redistribution due to event interactions as triggering mechanisms. By calibrating the model against observations at the Enhanced Geothermal System of Basel, Switzerland, we are able to reproduce the time behavior of the seismicity rate. We observe that considering earthquake interactions in the modeling leads to a larger number of expected seismic events (24% more) if compared to a pressure-induced seismicity only. The increase of the number of events is particularly evident after the end of the injection. We conclude that implementing a model for estimating the static stress changes due to mutual event interactions increases significantly the understanding of the process and the behavior of induced seismicity.

Ground heating and methane oxidation processes at shallow depth in Terre Calde di Medolla (Italy): Numerical modeling

The area known as Terre Calde (literally “hot lands”) in the plain of the Po River (Italy) is well known for unusual ground temperatures, and up to now, the cause o/f the heating has not been fully investigated. These higher-than-average temperatures are commonly associated with diffuse methane seepage. A detailed study of shallow stratigraphy, temperature profile, and associated gas concentrations and flow rates recently suggested that the observed anomaly could be related to the exothermic oxidation of biogenic methane, possibly rising from a shallow peat layer. In this work, a porous media flow simulator (Transport of Unsaturated Groundwater and Heat 2) was applied to verify a conceptual model of this phenomenon. The model describes a layered system, with a shallow unsaturated zone, where methane is continuously supplied along the base and heat is generated as a result of its oxidation above the water table. To mimic the oxidation process, heat sources are placed within the layer where oxidation takes place, and the heat generation is computed as a function of methane flux entering the layer. Numerical simulations were carried out imposing different methane flow rates along the base of the model. The simulations also explored the efficiency of methane oxidation, considering different heat generation rates and accounting for seasonal effects. The good match between observed and simulated temperature profiles suggests that the main features of the process are captured by the model and that the conceptual model devised on the base of available data is plausible from a physical point of view.

TOUGH2-seed: A coupled fluid flow and mechanical-stochastic approach to model injection-induced seismicity

Abstract Understanding the injection-induced triggering mechanism is a fundamental step towards controlling the seismicity generated by deep underground exploitation. Here we propose a modeling approach based on coupling the TOUGH2 simulator with a geomechanical-stochastic model. The hydro-mechanical-stochastic model provides a good representation of different mechanisms influencing each other during and after the injection phase. Each mechanism affects the induced seismicity in a different way and at different times during the reservoir stimulation, confirming that a complex interaction is in place, and that more sophisticated and physics-based approaches coupled with statistical model are required to explain such a complex interaction. In addition to previous statistical and hybrid models, our approach accounts for a full 3D formulation of both stresses and fluid flow, further including all the TOUGH2 capabilities. Furthermore, it includes interactions between triggered seismic events through calculation of static stress transfer. In this work, we present the main capabilities of TOUGH2-SEED and apply the model to the Basel EGS case, successfully reproducing the injection pressure as well as the evolution of the seismicity.

How Steep Is My Seep? Seepage in Volcanic Lakes, Hints from Numerical Simulations

The existence and survival of volcanic lakes require the accomplishment of a delicate balance between meteoric recharge, evaporation, and water loss by infiltration within the volcanic edifice, commonly referred to as seepage. A deep-seated, volcanic component may participate to a variable extent to the lake’s evolution, depending on volcanic activity. In this work, we apply a numerical model of hydrothermal fluid circulation to study the interaction between the hot volcanic gases and the shallow lake water. We focus on the conceptual model developed for Poas volcano (Costa Rica), where a shallow magma intrusion drives the hydrothermal activity underneath and around the crater lake. Numerical simulations are carried out to assess the role of relevant system properties, including rock permeability, reservoir conditions, lake geometry, and meteoric recharge. Our results suggest that vertical seepage can be severely hindered by the ascent of volcanic gases, whereas horizontal infiltration through the vertical lake walls may ensure a long-term water loss. Our simulations also show that the permeability distribution, especially around the lake, determines the overall pattern of circulation affecting the development and spatial distribution of hot springs and fumaroles, and ultimately controlling the evolution of the lake.

Poroelasticity and Fluid Flow Modeling for the 2012 Emilia-Romagna Earthquakes: Hints from GPS and InSAR Data

The Emilia-Romagna seismic sequence in May 2012 was characterized by two mainshocks which were close in time and space. Several authors already modeled the geodetic data in terms of the mechanical interaction of the events in the seismic sequence. Liquefaction has been extensively observed, suggesting an important role of fluids in the sequence. In this work, we focus on the poroelastic effects induced by the two mainshocks. In particular, the target of this work is to model the influence of fluids and pore-pressure changes on surface displacements and on the Coulomb failure function (CFF). The fluid flow and poroelastic modeling was performed in a 3D half-space whose elastic and hydraulic parameters are depth dependent, in accordance with the geology of the Emilia-Romagna subsoil. The model provides both the poroelastic displacements and the pore-pressure changes induced coseismically by the two mainshocks at subsequent periods and their evolution over time. Modeling results are then compared with postseismic InSAR and GPS displacement time series: the InSAR data consist of two SBAS series presented in previous works, while the GPS signal was detected adopting a variational Bayesian independent component analysis (vbICA) method. Thanks to the vbICA, we are able to separate the contribution of afterslip and poroelasticity on the horizontal surface displacements recorded by the GPS stations. The poroelastic GPS component is then compared to the modeled displacements and shown to be mainly due to drainage of the shallowest layers. Our results offer an estimation of the poroelastic effect magnitude that is small but not negligible and mostly confined in the near field of the two mainshocks. We also show that accounting for a 3D fault representation with a nonuniform slip distribution and the elastic-hydraulic layering of the half-space has an important role in the simulation results.