Mat Yamage

Reassortant avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses with H9N2-PB1 gene in poultry, Bangladesh.

Bangladesh has reported a high number of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) (H5N1) in poultry. We identified a natural reassortant HPAI (H5N1) virus containing a H9N2-PB1 gene in poultry in Bangladesh. Our findings highlight the risks for prolonged co-circulation of avian influenza viruses and the need to monitor their evolution.

Free-Roaming Dog Population Estimation and Status of the Dog Population Management and Rabies Control Program in Dhaka City, Bangladesh

Beginning January 2012, a humane method of dog population management using a Catch-Neuter-Vaccinate-Release (CNVR) program was implemented in Dhaka City, Bangladesh as part of the national rabies control program. To enable this program, the size and distribution of the free-roaming dog population needed to be estimated. We present the results of a dog population survey and a pilot assessment of the CNVR program coverage in Dhaka City. Free-roaming dog population surveys were undertaken in 18 wards of Dhaka City on consecutive days using mark-resight methods. Data was analyzed using Lincoln-Petersen index-Chapman correction methods. The CNVR program was assessed over the two years (2012–2013) whilst the coverage of the CNVR program was assessed by estimating the proportion of dogs that were ear-notched (processed dogs) via dog population surveys. The free-roaming dog population was estimated to be 1,242 (95 % CI: 1205–1278) in the 18 sampled wards and 18,585 dogs in Dhaka City (52 dogs/km2) with an estimated human-to-free-roaming dog ratio of 828:1. During the two year CNVR program, a total of 6,665 dogs (3,357 male and 3,308 female) were neutered and vaccinated against rabies in 29 of the 92 city wards. A pilot population survey indicated a mean CNVR coverage of 60.6% (range 19.2–79.3%) with only eight wards achieving > 70% coverage. Given that the coverage in many neighborhoods was below the WHO-recommended threshold level of 70% for rabies eradications and since the CNVR program takes considerable time to implement throughout the entire Dhaka City area, a mass dog vaccination program in the non-CNVR coverage area is recommended to create herd immunity. The findings from this study are expected to guide dog population management and the rabies control program in Dhaka City and elsewhere in Bangladesh.

A retrospective study on the epidemiology of anthrax, foot and mouth disease, haemorrhagic septicaemia, peste des petits ruminants and rabies in Bangladesh, 2010-2012.

Anthrax, foot and mouth disease (FMD), haemorrhagic septicaemia (HS), peste des petits ruminants (PPR) and rabies are considered to be endemic in Bangladesh. This retrospective study was conducted to understand the geographic and seasonal distribution of these major infectious diseases in livestock based on data collected through passive surveillance from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2012. Data analysis for this period revealed 5,937 cases of anthrax, 300,333 of FMD, 13,436 of HS, 247,783 of PPR and 14,085 cases of dog bite/rabies. While diseases were reported in almost every district of the country, the highest frequency of occurrence corresponded to the susceptible livestock population in the respective districts. There was no significant difference in the disease occurrences between districts bordering India/Myanmar and non-border districts (p>0.05). Significantly higher (p<0.01) numbers of anthrax (84.5%), FMD (88.3%), HS (84.9%) and dog bite/rabies (64.3%) cases were reported in cattle than any other species. PPR cases were reported mostly (94.8%) in goats with only isolated cases (5.2%) in sheep. The diseases occur throughout the year with peak numbers reported during June through September and lowest during December through April, with significant differences (p<0.01) between the months. The annual usages of vaccines for anthrax, FMD, HS and PPR were only 7.31%, 0.61%, 0.84% and 11.59% of the susceptible livestock population, respectively. Prophylactic vaccination against rabies was 21.16% of cases. There were significant differences (p<0.01) in the administration of anthrax, FMD and HS vaccines between border and non-border districts, but not PPR or rabies vaccines. We recommend that surveillance and reporting of these diseases need to be improved throughout the country. Furthermore, all suspected clinical cases should be confirmed by laboratory examination. The findings of this study can be used in the formulation of more effective disease management and control strategies, including appropriate vaccination policies in Bangladesh.

Modeling and Roles of Meteorological Factors in Outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1

The highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) is a deadly zoonotic pathogen. Its persistence in poultry in several countries is a potential threat: a mutant or genetically reassorted progenitor might cause a human pandemic. Its world-wide eradication from poultry is important to protect public health. The global trend of outbreaks of influenza attributable to HPAI H5N1 shows a clear seasonality. Meteorological factors might be associated with such trend but have not been studied. For the first time, we analyze the role of meteorological factors in the occurrences of HPAI outbreaks in Bangladesh. We employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) to assess the roles of different meteorological factors in outbreaks of HPAI. Outbreaks were modeled best when multiplicative seasonality was incorporated. Incorporation of any meteorological variable(s) as inputs did not improve the performance of any multivariable models, but relative humidity (RH) was a significant covariate in several ARIMA and SARIMA models with different autoregressive and moving average orders. The variable cloud cover was also a significant covariate in two SARIMA models, but air temperature along with RH might be a predictor when moving average (MA) order at lag 1 month is considered.

Surveillance, epidemiological, and virological detection of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza viruses in duck and poultry from Bangladesh.

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) continue to pose a global threat. Waterfowl are the main reservoir and are responsible for the spillover of AIVs to other hosts. This study was conducted as part of routine surveillance activities in Bangladesh and it reports on the serological and molecular detection of H5N1 AIV subtype. A total of 2169 cloacal and 2191 oropharyngeal swabs as well as 1725 sera samples were collected from live birds including duck and chicken in different locations in Bangladesh between the years of 2013 and 2014. Samples were tested using virus isolation, serological tests and molecular methods of RT-PCR. Influenza A viruses were detected using reverse transcription PCR targeting the virus matrix (M) gene in 41/4360 (0.94%) samples including both cloacal and oropharyngeal swab samples, 31 of which were subtyped as H5N1 using subtype-specific primers. Twenty-one live H5N1 virus isolates were recovered from those 31 samples. Screening of 1,868 blood samples collected from the same birds using H5-specific ELISA identified 545/1603 (34%) positive samples. Disconcertingly, an analysis of 221 serum samples collected from vaccinated layer chicken in four districts revealed that only 18 samples (8.1%) were seropositive for anti H5 antibodies, compared to unvaccinated birds (n=105), where 8 samples (7.6%) were seropositive. Our result indicates that the vaccination program as currently implemented should be reviewed and updated. In addition, surveillance programs are crucial for monitoring the efficacy of the current poultry vaccinations programs, and to monitor the circulating AIV strains and emergence of AIV subtypes in Bangladesh.

Genetic Diversity and Phylogenetic Analysis of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 Viruses Circulating in Bangladesh from 2007–2011

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus has been endemic in Bangladesh since its first isolation in February 2007. Phylogenetic analysis of the haemagglutinin (HA) gene of HPAI H5N1 viruses demonstrated that 25 Bangladeshi isolates including two human isolates from 2007-2011 along with some isolates from neighbouring Asian countries (India, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, China and Vietnam) segregate into two distinct clades (2.2 and 2.3). There was clear evidence of introduction of clade 2.3.2 and 2.3.4 viruses in 2011 in addition to clade 2.2 viruses that had been in circulation in Bangladesh since 2007. The data clearly demonstrated the movement of H5N1 strains between Asian countries included in this study due to migration of wild birds and/or illegal movement of poultry across borders. Interestingly, the two human isolates were closely related to the clade 2.2 Bangladeshi chicken isolates indicating that they have originated from chickens. Furthermore, comparative amino acid sequence analysis revealed several substitutions (including 189R>K and 282I>V) in HA protein of some clade 2.2 Bangladeshi viruses including the human isolates, suggesting there was antigenic drift in clade 2.2.3 viruses that were circulating between 2008 and 2011. Overall, the data imply genetic diversity among circulating viruses and multiple introductions of H5N1 viruses with an increased risk of human infections in Bangladesh, and establishment of H5N1 virus in wild and domestic bird populations, which demands active surveillance.

Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales : model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Bangladesh, being one of the most densely populated countries in the world and having an intensifying farming system. It is therefore vital to establish the key factors, specific to Bangladesh, that enable both continued transmission within poultry and spillover across the human-animal interface. We apply a modelling framework to H5N1 epidemics in the Dhaka region of Bangladesh, occurring from 2007 onwards, that resulted in large outbreaks in the poultry sector and a limited number of confirmed human cases. This model consisted of separate poultry transmission and zoonotic transmission components. Utilising poultry farm spatial and population information a set of competing nested models of varying complexity were fitted to the observed case data, with parameter inference carried out using Bayesian methodology and goodness-of-fit verified by stochastic simulations. For the poultry transmission component, successfully identifying a model of minimal complexity, which enabled the accurate prediction of the size and spatial distribution of cases in H5N1 outbreaks, was found to be dependent on the administration level being analysed. A consistent outcome of non-optimal reporting of infected premises materialised in each poultry epidemic of interest, though across the outbreaks analysed there were substantial differences in the estimated transmission parameters. The zoonotic transmission component found the main contributor to spillover transmission of H5N1 in Bangladesh was found to differ from one poultry epidemic to another. We conclude by discussing possible explanations for these discrepancies in transmission behaviour between epidemics, such as changes in surveillance sensitivity and biosecurity practices.

The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, the poultry industry is an economically and socially important sector, but it is persistently threatened by the effects of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. Thus, identifying the optimal control policy in response to an emerging disease outbreak is a key challenge for policy-makers. To inform this aim, a common approach is to carry out simulation studies comparing plausible strategies, while accounting for known capacity restrictions. In this study we perform simulations of a previously developed H5N1 influenza transmission model framework, fitted to two separate historical outbreaks, to assess specific control objectives related to the burden or duration of H5N1 outbreaks among poultry farms in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh. In particular, we explore the optimal implementation of ring culling, ring vaccination and active surveillance measures when presuming disease transmission predominately occurs from premises-to-premises, versus a setting requiring the inclusion of external factors. Additionally, we determine the sensitivity of the management actions under consideration to differing levels of capacity constraints and outbreaks with disparate transmission dynamics. While we find that reactive culling and vaccination policies should pay close attention to these factors to ensure intervention targeting is optimised, across multiple settings the top performing control action amongst those under consideration were targeted proactive surveillance schemes. Our findings may advise the type of control measure, plus its intensity, that could potentially be applied in the event of a developing outbreak of H5N1 amongst originally H5N1 virus-free commercially-reared poultry in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh.