Mathieu Casado

A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of variability in winter atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, with large impacts on temperature, precipitation and storm tracks, and therefore also on strategic sectors such as insurance, renewable energy production, crop yields and water management. Recent developments in dynamical methods offer promise to improve seasonal NAO predictions, but assessing potential predictability on multi-annual timescales requires documentation of past low-frequency variability in the NAO. A recent bi-proxy NAO reconstruction spanning the past millennium suggested that long-lasting positive NAO conditions were established during medieval times, explaining the particularly warm conditions in Europe during this period; however, these conclusions are debated. Here, we present a yearly NAO reconstruction for the past millennium, based on an initial selection of 48 annually resolved proxy records distributed around the Atlantic Ocean and built through an ensemble of multivariate regressions. We validate the approach in six past-millennium climate simulations, and show that our reconstruction outperforms the bi‐proxy index. The final reconstruction shows no persistent positive NAO during the medieval period, but suggests that positive phases were dominant during the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries. The reconstruction also reveals that a positive NAO emerges two years after strong volcanic eruptions, consistent with results obtained from models and satellite observations for the Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines.

A ‘warm path’ for Gulf Stream–troposphere interactions

Warm advection by the Gulf Stream creates a characteristic ‘tongue’ of warm water leaving a strong imprint on the sea surface temperature (SST) distribution in the western North Atlantic. This study aims at quantifying the climatological impact of this feature on cyclones travelling across this region in winter using a combination of reanalysis data and numerical experiments. It is suggested that the Gulf Stream ‘warm tongue’ is conducive to enhanced upward motion in cyclones because (i) it helps maintain a high equivalent potential temperature of air parcels at low levels which favors deep ascent in the warm conveyor belt of cyclones and (ii) because the large SST gradients to the north of the warm tongue drive a thermally direct circulation reinforcing and, possibly, destabilizing, the transverse circulation embedded in cyclones. This hypothesis is confirmed by comparing simulations at 12 km resolution from the Met Office Unified Model forced with realistic SST distribution to simulations with an SST distribution from which the Gulf Stream warm tongue was artificially removed or made colder by . It is also supported by a dynamical diagnostic applied to the ERA interim data-set over the wintertime period (1979–2012). The mechanism of oceanic forcing highlighted in this study is associated with near thermal equilibration of low level air masses with SST in the warm sector of cyclones passing over the Gulf Stream warm tongue, which is in sharp contrast to what occurs in their cold sector. It is suggested that this ‘warm path’ for the climatic impact of the Gulf Stream on the North Atlantic storm-track is not currently represented in climate models because of their coarse horizontal resolution.

Lamb dip CRDS of highly saturated transitions of water near 1.4 μm

Doppler-free saturated-absorption Lamb dips were measured at sub-Pa pressures on rovibrational lines of H216O near 7180 cm-1, using optical feedback frequency stabilized cavity ring-down spectroscopy. The saturation of the considered lines is so high that at the early stage of the ring down, the cavity loss rate remains unaffected by the absorption. By referencing the laser source to an optical frequency comb, transition frequencies are determined down to 100 Hz precision and kHz accuracy. The developed setup allows resolving highly K-type blended doublets separated by about 10 MHz (to be compared to a HWHM Doppler width on the order of 300 MHz). A comparison with the most recent spectroscopic databases is discussed. The determined K-type splittings are found to be very well predicted by the most recent variational calculations.

Direct, Precise Measurements of Isotopologue Abundance Ratios in CO2 Using Molecular Absorption Spectroscopy: Application to Δ17O

We present an ultrasensitive absorption spectrometer based on a 30 Hz/s stability, sub-kHz line width laser source coupled to a high-stability cavity-ring-down-spectroscopy setup. It provides direct and precise measurements of the isotopic ratios δ17O and δ18O in CO2. We demonstrate the first optical absorption measurements of 17O anomalies in CO2 with a precision better than 10 ppm, matching the requirements for paleo-environmental applications. This illustrates how optical absorption methods have become a competitive alternative to state-of-the-art isotopic ratio mass spectrometry techniques.