Mathieu Legros

Skeeter Buster: a stochastic, spatially explicit modeling tool for studying Aedes aegypti population replacement and population suppression strategies.

Background Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans. The only prevention measure currently available is the control of its vectors, primarily Aedes aegypti. Recent advances in genetic engineering have opened the possibility for a new range of control strategies based on genetically modified mosquitoes. Assessing the potential efficacy of genetic (and conventional) strategies requires the availability of modeling tools that accurately describe the dynamics and genetics of Ae. aegypti populations. Methodology/Principal findings We describe in this paper a new modeling tool of Ae. aegypti population dynamics and genetics named Skeeter Buster. This model operates at the scale of individual water-filled containers for immature stages and individual properties (houses) for adults. The biology of cohorts of mosquitoes is modeled based on the algorithms used in the non-spatial Container Inhabiting Mosquitoes Simulation Model (CIMSiM). Additional features incorporated into Skeeter Buster include stochasticity, spatial structure and detailed population genetics. We observe that the stochastic modeling of individual containers in Skeeter Buster is associated with a strongly reduced temporal variation in stage-specific population densities. We show that heterogeneity in container composition of individual properties has a major impact on spatial heterogeneity in population density between properties. We detail how adult dispersal reduces this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, we present the predicted genetic structure of the population by calculating FST values and isolation by distance patterns, and examine the effects of adult dispersal and container movement between properties. Conclusions/Significance We demonstrate that the incorporated stochasticity and level of spatial detail have major impacts on the simulated population dynamics, which could potentially impact predictions in terms of control measures. The capacity to describe population genetics confers the ability to model the outcome of genetic control methods. Skeeter Buster is therefore an important tool to model Ae. aegypti populations and the outcome of vector control measures.

Density-dependent intraspecific competition in the larval stage of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): revisiting the current paradigm.

ABSTRACT Density-dependent intraspecific competition has been considered an important determinant of the dynamics of larval stages of Aedes aegypti. A model was published in 1984 providing a mathematical description of this density dependence, based on field data, that has since been widely used. This description, however, is based on the strong assumption that all mortality is density-dependent. We re-examine the data without this premise and find a reduced importance of density dependence, as well as a different functional form. Based on these discrepancies, we emphasize that the characterization of density dependence in the larval stages of Ae. aegypti should be based on a more complete dataset, and we use artificially generated data to explore how such additional information could help developing a better description of this density dependence. We review other empirical studies on larval competition, discuss the need for further dedicated studies, and provide a few simple guidelines for the design of such studies.

Understanding uncertainties in model-based predictions of Aedes aegypti population dynamics.

Background Aedes aegypti is one of the most important mosquito vectors of human disease. The development of spatial models for Ae. aegypti provides a promising start toward model-guided vector control and risk assessment, but this will only be possible if models make reliable predictions. The reliability of model predictions is affected by specific sources of uncertainty in the model. Methodology/Principal Findings This study quantifies uncertainties in the predicted mosquito population dynamics at the community level (a cluster of 612 houses) and the individual-house level based on Skeeter Buster, a spatial model of Ae. aegypti, for the city of Iquitos, Peru. The study considers two types of uncertainty: 1) uncertainty in the estimates of 67 parameters that describe mosquito biology and life history, and 2) uncertainty due to environmental and demographic stochasticity. Our results show that for pupal density and for female adult density at the community level, respectively, the 95% prediction confidence interval ranges from 1000 to 3000 and from 700 to 5,000 individuals. The two parameters contributing most to the uncertainties in predicted population densities at both individual-house and community levels are the female adult survival rate and a coefficient determining weight loss due to energy used in metabolism at the larval stage (i.e. metabolic weight loss). Compared to parametric uncertainty, stochastic uncertainty is relatively low for population density predictions at the community level (less than 5% of the overall uncertainty) but is substantially higher for predictions at the individual-house level (larger than 40% of the overall uncertainty). Uncertainty in mosquito spatial dispersal has little effect on population density predictions at the community level but is important for the prediction of spatial clustering at the individual-house level. Conclusion/Significance This is the first systematic uncertainty analysis of a detailed Ae. aegypti population dynamics model and provides an approach for identifying those parameters for which more accurate estimates would improve model predictions.

Experimental evolution of specialization by a microsporidian parasite

BackgroundEvolutionary theory predicts that the pressure for parasites to specialize on one host or to become generalists on a wide range of hosts is driven by the diversity or temporal variability of the hosts population and by genetic trade-offs in the adaptation to different hosts. We give experimental evidence for this idea by letting the parasite Brachiola algerae evolve on one of four genetically homogeneous lines of the mosquito Aedes aegypti, on a mixture of the four lines or on an alternating sequence of the four lines. The first regime was expected to lead to specialists, the other two to generalists. After 13 generations, we tested the evolved parasites on each of the four lines of the mosquito.ResultsThe specialized parasites were most infective on their own isofemale line and least infective on other isofemale lines, while the generalist parasites had intermediate infection success on all lines. The success of a specialist on its matched mosquito line was negatively correlated with its success on other lines, suggesting an evolutionary cost to specialization. This trade-off was corroborated by the observation that the generalists had higher average mean infectivity than the specialists over all isofemale lines.ConclusionsOverall, our experiment reveals the potential for specialization of a parasite to individual genotypes of its host and provides experimental evidence of the cost associated with the evolution of specialization, an important feature for understanding the coevolutionary dynamics between hosts and parasites.

Evaluation of Location-Specific Predictions by a Detailed Simulation Model of Aedes aegypti Populations

Background Skeeter Buster is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations, designed to predict the outcome of vector population control methods. In this study, we apply the model to two specific locations, the cities of Iquitos, Peru, and Buenos Aires, Argentina. These two sites differ in the amount of field data that is available for location-specific customization. By comparing output from Skeeter Buster to field observations in these two cases we evaluate population dynamics predictions by Skeeter Buster with varying degrees of customization. Methodology/Principal Findings Skeeter Buster was customized to the Iquitos location by simulating the layout of houses and the associated distribution of water-holding containers, based on extensive surveys of Ae. aegypti populations and larval habitats that have been conducted in Iquitos for over 10 years. The model is calibrated by adjusting the food input into various types of containers to match their observed pupal productivity in the field. We contrast the output of this customized model to the data collected from the natural population, comparing pupal numbers and spatial distribution of pupae in the population. Our results show that Skeeter Buster replicates specific population dynamics and spatial structure of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos. We then show how Skeeter Buster can be customized for Buenos Aires, where we only had Ae. aegypti abundance data that was averaged across all locations. In the Argentina case Skeeter Buster provides a satisfactory simulation of temporal population dynamics across seasons. Conclusions This model can provide a faithful description of Ae. aegypti populations, through a process of location-specific customization that is contingent on the amount of data available from field collections. We discuss limitations presented by some specific components of the model such as the description of food dynamics and challenges that these limitations bring to model evaluation.

Insect oviposition behavior affects the evolution of adaptation to Bt crops: consequences for refuge policies

The major lepidopteran insect pests of cotton and maize harbor intra-specific variation for behavior determining the selection of host plants for oviposition. Yet, the consequences of behavioral adaptation for fitness have neither been modeled nor monitored for Bt cotton and maize crops, the most widely grown transgenic herbivore-resistant plants. Here, we present a general two-locus heuristic model to examine potential outcomes of natural selection when pest populations initially have low frequencies of alleles for both physiological and behavioral adaptation to Bt crops. We demonstrate that certain ecological conditions allow for the evolution of behavioral choices favoring alternative oviposition hosts that limit the increase in resistance alleles, even when they are phenotypically dominant. These results have implications for current refuge policies, which should be adapted to promote the evolution of certain behavioral choices for alternative oviposition hosts in addition to dilution of physiological resistance alleles. Collection of data on oviposition host preference as a component of monitoring schemes will provide important insights into mechanisms underlying the durability of Bt-transgenic host-plant resistance.

Assessing the Feasibility of Controlling Aedes aegypti with Transgenic Methods: A Model-Based Evaluation

Suppression of dengue and malaria through releases of genetically engineered mosquitoes might soon become feasible. Aedes aegypti mosquitoes carrying a conditionally lethal transgene have recently been used to suppress local vector populations in small-scale field releases. Prior to releases of transgenic insects on a wider scale, however, most regulatory authorities will require additional evidence that suppression will be effective in natural heterogeneous habitats. We use a spatially explicit stochastic model of an Ae. aegypti population in Iquitos, Peru, along with an uncertainty analysis of its predictions, to quantitatively assess the outcome of varied operational approaches for releases of transgenic strains with conditional death of females. We show that population elimination might be an unrealistic objective in heterogeneous populations. We demonstrate that substantial suppression can nonetheless be achieved if releases are deployed in a uniform spatial pattern using strains combining multiple lethal elements, illustrating the importance of detailed spatial models for guiding genetic mosquito control strategies.

An eco-physiological model of the impact of temperature on Aedes aegypti life history traits.

Physiological processes mediate the impact of ecological conditions on the life histories of insect vectors. For the dengue/chikungunya mosquito, Aedes aegypti, three life history traits that are critical to urban population dynamics and control are: size, development rate and starvation mortality. In this paper we make use of prior laboratory experiments on each of these traits at 2°C intervals between 20 and 30°C, in conjunction with eco-evolutionary theory and studies on A.aegypti physiology, in order to develop a conceptual and mathematical framework that can predict their thermal sensitivity. Our model of reserve dependent growth (RDG), which considers a potential tradeoff between the accumulation of reserves and structural biomass, was able to robustly predict laboratory observations, providing a qualitative improvement over the approach most commonly used in other A.aegypti models. RDG predictions of reduced size at higher temperatures, but increased reserves relative to size, are supported by the available evidence in Aedes spp. We offer the potentially general hypothesis that temperature-size patterns in mosquitoes are driven by a net benefit of finishing the growing stage with proportionally greater reserves relative to structure at warmer temperatures. By relating basic energy flows to three fundamental life history traits, we provide a mechanistic framework for A.aegypti development to which ecological complexity can be added. Ultimately, this could provide a framework for developing and field testing hypotheses on how processes such as climate variation, density dependent regulation, human behavior or control strategies may influence A.aegypti population dynamics and disease risk.

Gene-drive into insect populations with age and spatial structure: a theoretical assessment

The potential benefits and risks of genetically engineered gene‐drive systems for replacing wild pest strains with more benign strains must be assessed prior to any field releases. We develop a computer simulation model to assess the feasibility of using engineered underdominance constructs to drive transgenes into age‐ and spatially structured mosquito populations. Our practical criterion for success is the achievement of a transgene frequency of at least 0.80 within 3 years of release. The impacts of a number of parameters that may affect the success of gene‐drive, such as the release area, release age, density‐dependent larval survival, fitness cost of the engineered genes, and migration probability of adults, are examined. Results show that patchy release generally requires the release of fewer engineered insects to achieve success than central release. When the fitness cost is very low, central release covering 25% of the total area can be more effective than a completely uniform release over the whole area. This study demonstrates that to determine the best method of spatial release, and the total number of engineered insects that must be released, it is important to take into account the age and sex of the released insects and spatial structure of the population.

Gene-drive in age-structured insect populations.

To date, models of gene‐drive mechanisms proposed for replacing wild‐type mosquitoes with transgenic strains that cannot transmit diseases have assumed no age or mating structure. We developed a more detailed model to analyze the effects of age and mating‐related factors on the number of engineered insects that must be introduced into a wild population to achieve successful gene‐drive based on the Medea and engineered underdominance mechanisms. We found that models without age‐structure and mating details can substantially overestimate or underestimate the numbers of engineered insects that must be introduced. In general, introduction thresholds are lowest when young adults are introduced. When both males and females are introduced, assortative mating by age has little impact on the introduction threshold unless the introduced females have diminished reproductive ability because of their age. However, when only males are introduced, assortative mating by age is generally predicted to increase introduction thresholds. In most cases, introduction thresholds are much higher for male‐only introductions than for both‐sex introductions, but when mating is nearly random and the introduced insects are adults with Medea constructs, male‐only introductions can have somewhat lower thresholds than both‐sex introductions. Results from this model suggest specific parameters that should be measured in field experiments.