Mats Johansson

Approaching a Single Labour Market: Emerging Migration Patterns in the Baltic Sea Area

Contrary to expectations, migration flows from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland to Scandinavia and Finland have decreased in the course of the last decade. Nevertheless there is a widespread expectation of increased migration once the eastern European countries have entered a common labour market. The history of the free Nordic labour market tells that differences in income levels and in options of a working life career between neighbouring countries is likely to at least initially stimulate migration to the more prosperous country. In this chapter, we will assess potential migration flows from the southeastern countries around the Baltic Sea to the Nordic countries. First, we will give an overview of mobility patterns between Nordic countries since the establishment of the common Nordic labour market in the mid-50s. The factors influencing migration between Finland and Sweden are highlighted as a case study. The importance of differences in living standard and labour demand is analysed, partly by means of regression analysis of migration frequencies during the period 1962 to 1997. The focus is on the importance of economic convergence between the two countries.