Matteo Balliauw

An analysis of entry and exit decisions in shipping markets under uncertainty

Objective: The existing literature on the application of real options in maritime economics is rather limited. Bendall & Stent (2003, 2005, 2007) show how investing in a new ship or maritime technology can incorporate an option value. Another application is elaborated by Bjerksund & Ekern (1995), discussing the value of mean-reverting cash owes through contingent claim analysis, applied to time charters. The analysis of the entry and exit decision in the shipping markets can form an interesting extension of this research. Shipping markets are in nature uncertain and cyclical (Stopford, 2009). For this reason, the real options based model of Ruiz-Aliseda & Wu (2012) for stochastically cyclical markets will be applied to the shipping markets, in order to define entry and exit thresholds in this market. Data/Methodology: Data on the freight rates, costs and ship prices are used for estimating the parameters present in the real options based model of Ruiz-Aliseda & Wu (2012) for stochastically cyclical markets. This model incorporates a discrete-time Markov process, an alternative for the traditionally used geometric Brownian motion (GBM) and suited to model the cyclicality of the shipping markets. Investing in a ship and selling it again can respectively be interpreted as entering and exiting the market. Hence, the model can be applied here in order to predict the optimal values for entry and exit in the shipping markets. Results/Findings: The theoretically calculated results will be tested on real cases using data on container time charter prices over different periods, to see how well the theoretically developed model performs in the shipping markets. In that way, the estimation of parameters and the assumptions of the model can be evaluated on their accuracy in these cyclical markets. Implications for Research/Policy: In the first place, this case study can indicate how well the model performs in another market. If the model turns out to successfully predict market entry and exit thresholds, it could help companies to make better predictions on competitor behaviour. Also for policy makers, it could help to have a more accurate insight in the required capacity for ports.

A variable neighborhood search algorithm to generate piano fingerings for polyphonic sheet music

A piano fingering indicates which finger should play each note in a piece. Such a guideline is very helpful for both amateur and experienced players in order to play a piece fluently. In this paper, we propose a variable neighbourhood search algorithm to generate piano fingerings for complex polyphonic music, a frequently encountered case that was ignored in previous research. The algorithm takes into account the biomechanical properties of the pianist’s hand in order to generate a fingering that is user-specific and as easy to play as possible. An extensive statistical analysis was carried out in order to tune the parameters of the algorithm and evaluate its performance. The results of computational experiments show that the algorithm generates good fingerings that are very similar to those published in sheet music books.

Benchmarking US All-Cargo Carriers: A Productivity and Cost Competitiveness Analysis

Abstract Existing studies about airline productivity and cost competitiveness are focusing on combination carriers, transporting both passengers and cargo in the same aircraft and with the same inputs. Scientific research about the cost structure and productive performance of all-cargo carriers is very limited. However, the importance of air cargo and express transport in our globalized economy, the high volatility of all-cargo carriers (especially since the 2008 economic crisis), and the success of integrators show the need for more scientific attention to this industry. This chapter aims at benchmarking the productivity and cost competitiveness of US integrated and non-integrated cargo carriers, based on total factor productivity and unit cost competitiveness analyses. The results unveil a positive correlation between productivity on the one hand and the size of the carrier and its average stage length on the other hand, indicating economies of scale. Correcting the results for such factors beyond managerial control and input prices allows us to measure the impact of the crisis and the consequences for the management of the individual carriers.

Maritime world cities: development of the global maritime management network

This research extends the current insights concerning maritime world cities. The analysis starts with the use of the Globalisation and World Cities (GaWC) methodology for identifying world cities. New calculations are made for the management of container flows in 2009 and 2012. Next, we calculate the maritime city network based on the management of bulk transport operations. Finally, we test the presumption of GaWC that there are regular contacts between all offices of a global company by using a new, more qualitative approach. This consists of interviews with the managing directors of the Antwerp branches of the 20 major global container lines trying to reveal the actual communication patterns between maritime offices. The results show that the GaWC methodology is based on plausible assumptions. Some caution is however advised, communication with nearby cities is underestimated, while contacts with increasing distance between cities are overestimated.

Generating Fingerings for Polyphonic Piano Music with a Tabu Search Algorithm

A piano fingering is an indication of which finger is to be used to play each note in a piano composition. Good piano fingerings enable pianists to study, remember and play pieces in an optimal way. In this paper, we propose a tabu search algorithm to find a good piano fingering automatically and in a short amount of time. An innovative feature of the proposed algorithm is that it implements an objective function that takes into account the characteristics of the pianist’s hand and that it can be used for complex polyphonic music.