Matteo Spada

An aftermath analysis of the 2014 coal mine accident in Soma, Turkey: use of risk performance indicators based on historical experience

On the 13th of May 2014 a fire related incident in the Soma coal mine in Turkey caused 301 fatalities and more than 80 injuries. This has been the largest coal mine accident in Turkey, and in the OECD country group, so far. This study investigated if such a disastrous event should be expected, in a statistical sense, based on historical observations. For this purpose, PSIs ENSAD database is used to extract accident data for the period 1970-2014. Four different cases are analyzed, i.e., OECD, OECD w/o Turkey, Turkey and USA. Analysis of temporal trends for annual numbers of accidents and fatalities indicated a non-significant decreasing tendency for OECD and OECD w/o Turkey and a significant one for USA, whereas for Turkey both measures showed an increase over time. The expectation analysis revealed clearly that an event with the consequences of the Soma accident is rather unlikely for OECD, OECD w/o Turkey and USA. In contrast, such a severe accident has a substantially higher expectation for Turkey, i.e. it cannot be considered an extremely rare event, based on historical experience. This indicates a need for improved safety measures and stricter regulations in the Turkish coal mining sector in order to get closer to the rest of OECD.

Health effects of technologies for power generation: Contributions from normal operation, severe accidents and terrorist threat

As a part of comprehensive analysis of current and future energy systems we carried out numerous analyses of health effects of a wide spectrum of electricity supply technologies including advanced ones, operating in various countries under different conditions. The scope of the analysis covers full energy chains, i.e. fossil, nuclear and renewable power plants and the various stages of fuel cycles. State-of-the-art methods are used for the estimation of health effects. This paper addresses health effects in terms of reduced life expectancy in the context of normal operation as well as fatalities resulting from severe accidents and potential terrorist attacks. Based on the numerical results and identified patterns a comparative perspective on health effects associated with various electricity generation technologies and fuel cycles is provided. In particular the estimates of health risks from normal operation can be compared with those resulting from severe accidents and hypothetical terrorist attacks. A novel approach to the analysis of terrorist threat against energy infrastructure was developed, implemented and applied to selected energy facilities in various locations. Finally, major limitations of the current approach are identified and recommendations for further work are given.

Comparative Assessment of Accident Risks in the Energy Sector

This chapter is structured in five parts. The introduction discusses the relevance of accidents in the energy sector and puts them into the broader perspective of sustainability, energy security, and critical infrastructure protection. Furthermore, an overview of various risk assessment concepts is given. The second part provides a detailed overview of the comprehensive framework for comparative risk assessment developed by the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), at the core of which is the energy-related severe accident database (ENSAD). Third, a broad range of risk indicators and other measures are described and calculated allow for an objective, fair, and quantitative comparison of accident risks across a broad range of fossil, nuclear, and renewable technologies. This evaluation is complemented by a compilation of additional risk factors that can play a key role in decision processes and stakeholder interaction. However, for the time being they are often not amenable to full quantification because they cannot be described and analyzed by traditional risk metrics mainly focusing on consequences or because only limited historical experience is available. The chapter ends with a summary of the main findings and conclusions that can be drawn from comparative risk assessment as well as their potential implications for policy making.