Matthew Antognoli

Sizing strategies in scarce environments

Competition is fierce and often the first to act has an advantage, especially in environments where there are excess resources. However, expanding quickly to absorb excess resources creates requirements that might be unmet in future conditions of scarcity. Different patterns of scarcity call for different strategies. We define a model of interacting specialists (entities) to analyze which sizing strategies are most successful in environments subjected to frequent periods of scarcity. We require entities to compete for a common resource whose scarcity changes periodically, then study the viability of entities following three different strategies through scarcity episodes of varying duration and intensity. The three sizing strategies are: aggressive, moderate, and conservative. Aggressive strategies are most effective when the episodes of scarcity are shorter and moderate; conversely, conservative strategies are most effective in cases of longer or more severe scarcity.

A General Model of Resource Production and Exchange in Systems of Interdependent Specialists

Infrastructures are networks of dynamically interacting systems designed for the flow of information, energy, and materials. Under certain circumstances, disturbances from a targeted attack or natural disasters can cause cascading failures within and between infrastructures that result in significant service losses and long recovery times. Reliable interdependency models that can capture such multi-network cascading do not exist. The research reported here has extended Sandias infrastructure modeling capabilities by: (1) addressing interdependencies among networks, (2) incorporating adaptive behavioral models into the network models, and (3) providing mechanisms for evaluating vulnerability to targeted attack and unforeseen disruptions. We have applied these capabilities to evaluate the robustness of various systems, and to identify factors that control the scale and duration of disruption. This capability lays the foundation for developing advanced system security solutions that encompass both external shocks and internal dynamics.

A Policy of Strategic Petroleum Market Reserves

Unexpected price spikes in petroleum can lead to instability in markets and have a negative economic effect on sectors which rely on petroleum consumption. Sudden rises in the price of petroleum do not have to be long-term to cause negative, cascading impacts across the economy. Firms which make futures purchases or hedge against a higher price during a price spike can become insolvent when the price spike deflates. A policy is needed to buffer short-term perturbations in the petroleum market to avoid short-term price spikes. This study looks at the effects of implementing a Strategic Petroleum Market Reserve within a multi-agent Nation-State model which would utilize trading bands to determine when to buy and sell petroleum reserves. Our analysis indicates that the result of implementing this policy is a more stable petroleum market during conditions of resource scarcity.

To Trade or Not to Trade: Analyzing How Perturbations Travel in Sparsely Connected Networks

In global economics, nations are often faced with the opportunity to open or close new avenues of trade or to join new markets. These actions can be beneficial or harmful for a nation because entering a market exposes that nation to the perturbations caused by others in the market. However, joining a new market offers the benefit of lower prices and increased security against domestic perturbations because shocks are spread across all trading partners. This risk/benefit tradeoff is relatively straightforward for one market, but the effects are more complicated when multiple markets are introduced. We use an agent-based model to analyze how the connection pattern of markets affects perturbations that travel across networks. We find that shocks are not easily transmitted across networks unless the perturbed resource is directly traded and we discuss the tradeoffs associated with opening new international market connections.

The Crossover Point: Comparing Policies to Mitigate Disruptions.

Companies, industries, and nations often consume resources supplied by unstable producers. Perturbations that affect the supplier propagate downstream to create volatility in resource prices. Consumers can invest to reduce this insecurity in two ways; invest in and impose security on the suppliers, or can invest in self-sufficiency so that shocks no longer present devastating consequences. We use an agent-based model of a complex adaptive system to examine this tradeoff between projecting security and investing in self-sufficiency. This study finds that the significance of tradeoffs correlates with the dependence of the consumer on the supplier.