Matthew Baylis

Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe

Bluetongue, a devastating disease of ruminants, has historically made only brief, sporadic incursions into the fringes of Europe. However, since 1998, six strains of bluetongue virus have spread across 12 countries and 800 km further north in Europe than has previously been reported. We suggest that this spread has been driven by recent changes in European climate that have allowed increased virus persistence during winter, the northward expansion of Culicoides imicola, the main bluetongue virus vector, and, beyond this vectors range, transmission by indigenous European Culicoides species — thereby expanding the risk of transmission over larger geographical regions. Understanding this sequence of events may help us predict the emergence of other vector-borne pathogens.

The Genetics of Scrapie in Sheep and Goats

Scrapie, an invariably fatal disease of sheep and goats, is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE). The putative infectious agent is the host-encoded prion protein, PrP. The development of scrapie is closely linked to polymorphisms in the host PrP gene. The pathogenesis of most TSEs involves conversion of normal, cellular PrP into a protease-resistant, pathogenic isoform called PrPSc. The conversion to PrPSc involves change in secondary structure; it is impacts on these structural changes that may link polymorphisms to disease. Within the structured C-terminal part of PrP polymorphisms have been reported at 15 and 10 codons of the sheep and goat PrP genes respectively. Three polymorphisms in sheep are acutely linked to the occurrence of scrapie: A136V, R154H and Q171R/H. These generate five commonly observed alleles: ARQ, ARR, AHQ, ARH and VRQ. ARR and AHQ are associated with resistance; ARQ, ARH and VRQ are associated with susceptibility. There are subtle effects of specific allele pairings (genotypes). Generally, more susceptible genotypes have younger ages at death from scrapie. Different strains of scrapie occur which may attack genotypes differently. Different sheep breeds vary in the assortment of the five alleles that they predominantly encode. The reason for this variation is not known. Furthermore, certain genotypes may be susceptible to scrapie in some breeds and resistant in others. The explanation is not known, but may relate to different scrapie strains circulating in different breeds, or there may be effects of other genes which modulate the effect of PrP.

Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion.

Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number

Since 1998 bluetongue virus (BTV), which causes bluetongue, a non-contagious, insect-borne infectious disease of ruminants, has expanded northwards in Europe in an unprecedented series of incursions, suggesting that there is a risk to the large and valuable British livestock industry. The basic reproduction number, R0, provides a powerful tool with which to assess the level of risk posed by a disease. In this paper, we compute R0 for BTV in a population comprising two host species, cattle and sheep. Estimates for each parameter which influences R0 were obtained from the published literature, using those applicable to the UK situation wherever possible. Moreover, explicit temperature dependence was included for those parameters for which it had been quantified. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses based on Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients identified temperature, the probability of transmission from host to vector and the vector to host ratio as being most important in determining the magnitude of R0. The importance of temperature reflects the fact that it influences many processes involved in the transmission of BTV and, in particular, the biting rate, the extrinsic incubation period and the vector mortality rate.

Bluetongue in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin: history of occurrence prior to 2006.

Bluetongue virus (BTV) exists around the world in a broad band covering much of the Americas, Africa, southern Asia and northern Australia. Historically, it also occasionally occurred in the southern fringes of Europe. It is considered to be one of the most important diseases of domestic livestock. Recently BTV has extended its range northwards into areas of Europe never before affected and has persisted in many of these locations causing the greatest epizootic of bluetongue (BT), the disease caused by BTV, on record. Indeed, the most recent outbreaks of BT in Europe are further north than this virus has ever previously occurred anywhere in the world. The reasons for this dramatic change in BT epidemiology are complex but are linked to recent extensions in the distribution of its major vector, Culicoides imicola, to the involvement of novel Culicoides vector(s) and to on-going climate-change. This paper investigates these recent outbreaks in the European theatre, up to the beginning of 2006, highlights prospects for the future and sets the scene for the following papers in this special issue.

Effect of temperature on the transmission of orbiviruses by the biting midge, Culicoides sonorensis

Abstract The influence of temperature on the likelihood of Culicoides sonorensis Wirth & Jones (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) transmitting African horse sickness virus (AHSV) serotypes 4 and 6, bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes 10 and 16 and epizootic haemorrhagic disease of deer virus (EHDV) serotype 1 was investigated. Extrinsic incubation periods (EIP), vector competence and vector survival were determined at 15, 20, 25 and 30°C. The effect of humidity on vector survival was also investigated by maintaining adult C. sonorensis at 40, 75 and 85% r.h. at each temperature. Higher temperatures were associated with a shorter EIP for all virus serotypes except AHSV6, to which C. sonorensis was orally refractory, increased vector competence for AHSV4 and EHDV1, but not for BTV10 or BTV16, and a reduction in vector survival. Humidity interacted with temperature in influencing vector survival, such that at low temperatures, lower humidity (40 and 75% r.h.) was detrimental for survival (up to 18% reduction in longevity), whereas at high temperatures, high humidity (85% r.h.) was detrimental (up to 36% reduction in longevity). In general, the transmission potential of C. sonorensis for AHSV4, EHDV1, BTV10 and BTV16 was greater at higher temperatures, because although vector survival was reduced, this was more than compensated for by the accompanying decrease in duration of the EIP.

Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climates impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BTs emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BTs recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BTs emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate changes impact on the future of such diseases.

Frequencies of PrP gene haplotypes in British sheep flocks and the implications for breeding programmes

Aims:  To analyse the frequencies of prion (PrP) gene haplotypes in UK sheep flocks and evaluate their relevance to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) and TSE resistance breeding programmes in sheep.

Fasciola hepatica is associated with the failure to detect bovine tuberculosis in dairy cattle

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is a significant and intractable disease of cattle caused by Mycobacterium bovis. In the UK, despite an aggressive eradication programme, the prevalence of BTB is increasing with an unexplained, exponential rise in cases year on year. Here we show in a study involving 3026 dairy herds in England and Wales that there is a significant negative association between exposure to the common, ubiquitous helminth parasite, Fasciola hepatica and diagnosis of BTB. The magnitude of the single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin test used to diagnose BTB is reduced in cattle experimentally co-infected with M. bovis and F. hepatica. We estimate an under-ascertainment rate of about one-third (95% Confidence Intervals 27-38%) among our study farms, in the hypothetical situation of no exposure to F. hepatica. This finding may in part explain the continuing spread of BTB and the failure of the current eradication programme in the UK.

Modelling the distributions of Culicoides bluetongue virus vectors in Sicily in relation to satellite-derived climate variables

Abstract.  Surveillance data from 268 sites in Sicily are used to develop climatic models for prediction of the distribution of the main European bluetongue virus (BTV) vector Culicoides imicola Kieffer (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) and of potential novel vectors, Culicoides pulicaris Linnaeus, Culicoides obsoletus group Meigen and Culicoides newsteadi Austen. The models containing the ‘best’ climatic predictors of distribution for each species, were selected from combinations of 40 temporally Fourier‐processed remotely sensed variables and altitude at a 1 km spatial resolution using discriminant analysis. Kappa values of around 0.6 for all species models indicated substantial levels of agreement between model predictions and observed data. Whilst the distributions of C. obsoletus group and C. newsteadi were predicted by temperature variables, those of C. pulicaris and C. imicola were determined mainly by normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), a variable correlated with soil moisture and vegetation biomass and productivity. These models were used to predict species presence in unsampled pixels across Italy and for C. imicola across Europe and North Africa. The predicted continuous presence of C. pulicaris along the appenine mountains, from north to south Italy, suggests BTV transmission may be possible in a large proportion of this region and that seasonal transhumance (seasonal movement of livestock between upland and lowland pastures) even in C. imicola‐free areas should not generally be considered safe. The predicted distribution of C. imicola distribution shows substantial agreement with observed surveillance data from Greece and Iberia (including the Balearics) and parts of mainland Italy (Lazio, Tuscany and areas of the Ionian coast) but is generally much more restricted than the observed distribution (in Sardinia, Corsica and Morocco). The low number of presence sites for C. imicola in Sicily meant that only a restricted range of potential C. imicola habitats were included in the training set and that predictions could only be made within this range. Future modelling exercises will use abundance data collected according to a standardized protocol across the Mediterranean and, for Sicily in particular, should include non‐climatic environmental variables that may influence breeding site suitability such as soil type.