Matthew E. Aiello-Lammens

How does climate change cause extinction

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

Biological invasions: a field synopsis, systematic review, and database of the literature.

Species introductions of anthropogenic origins are a major aspect of rapid ecological change globally. Research on biological invasions has generated a large literature on many different aspects of this phenomenon. Here, we describe and categorize some aspects of this literature, to better understand what has been studied and what we know, mapping well-studied areas and important gaps. To do so, we employ the techniques of systematic reviewing widely adopted in other scientific disciplines, to further the use of approaches in reviewing the literature that are as scientific, repeatable, and transparent as those employed in a primary study. We identified 2398 relevant studies in a field synopsis of the biological invasions literature. A majority of these studies (58%) were concerned with hypotheses for causes of biological invasions, while studies on impacts of invasions were the next most common (32% of the publications). We examined 1537 papers in greater detail in a systematic review. Superior competitive abilities of invaders, environmental disturbance, and invaded community species richness were the most common hypotheses examined. Most studies examined only a single hypothesis. Almost half of the papers were field observational studies. Studies of terrestrial invasions dominate the literature, with most of these concerning plant invasions. The focus of the literature overall is uneven, with important gaps in areas of theoretical and practical importance.

Integrated Modeling to Mitigate Climate Change Risk Due to Sea Level Rise

Climate change is expected to significantly alter low-lying coastal and intertidal areas, which provide significant seasonal habitats for a variety of shoreline-dependent organisms. Many coastal military installations in Florida have significant coastal habitats and shoreline-dependent bird data strongly illustrate their seasonal importance for birds. Potential land use changes and population increases, coupled with uncertain predictions for sea level rise, storm frequency, and intensity have created a significant planning challenge for natural resource managers. This paper provides a framework to integrate multiscale climate, land cover, land use, and ecosystem information into a systematic tool to explore climate variability and change effects on habitat and population dynamics for the state-threatened residential Snowy Plover, and the migratory Piping Plover and Red Knot, on selected coastal Florida military sites in Northwest Florida. A proof-of-concept study is described that includes climate data, species distribution and a coastal wetland land cover model coupled with global sensitivity/uncertainty analysis methods. The results of these integrated models are used to explore habitat dynamics and management options within an uncertain world.

Wallace: A flexible platform for reproducible modeling of species niches and distributions built for community expansion

Abtract 1.Scientific research increasingly calls for open-source software that is flexible, interactive, and expandable, while providing methodological guidance and reproducibility. Currently, many analyses in ecology are implemented with “black box” graphical user interfaces that lack flexibility or command-line interfaces that are infrequently used by non-specialists. 2.To help remedy this situation in the context of species distribution modeling, we created Wallace, an open and modular application with a richly documented graphical user interface to underlying R scripts that is flexible and highly interactive. 3.Wallace guides users from acquiring and processing data to building models and examining predictions. Additionally, it is designed to grow via community contributions of new modules to expand functionality. All results are downloadable, along with code to reproduce the analysis. 4.Wallace provides an example of an innovative platform to increase access to cutting-edge methods and encourage plurality in science and collaboration in software development. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Divergent trait and environment relationships among parallel radiations in Pelargonium (Geraniaceae): a role for evolutionary legacy?

Functional traits in closely related lineages are expected to vary similarly along common environmental gradients as a result of shared evolutionary and biogeographic history, or legacy effects, and as a result of biophysical tradeoffs in construction. We test these predictions in Pelargonium, a relatively recent evolutionary radiation. Bayesian phylogenetic mixed effects models assessed, at the subclade level, associations between plant height, leaf area, leaf nitrogen content and leaf mass per area (LMA), and five environmental variables capturing temperature and rainfall gradients across the Greater Cape Floristic Region of South Africa. Trait-trait integration was assessed via pairwise correlations within subclades. Of 20 trait-environment associations, 17 differed among subclades. Signs of regression coefficients diverged for height, leaf area and leaf nitrogen content, but not for LMA. Subclades also differed in trait-trait relationships and these differences were modulated by rainfall seasonality. Leave-one-out cross-validation revealed that whether trait variation was better predicted by environmental predictors or trait-trait integration depended on the clade and trait in question. Legacy signals in trait-environment and trait-trait relationships were apparently lost during the earliest diversification of Pelargonium, but then retained during subsequent subclade evolution. Overall, we demonstrate that global-scale patterns are poor predictors of patterns of trait variation at finer geographic and taxonomic scales.

A question of dissemination: Assessing the practices and implications of research in tropical landscapes

Current debates in the conservation sciences argue for better integration between research and practice, often citing the importance of the diffusion, dissemination and implementation of scientific knowledge for environmental management and policy. This paper focuses on a relatively well-researched protected area (Madidi National Park) in Bolivia in order to present different interpretations and understandings of the implications and availability of research findings. We draw on findings from quantitative and qualitative methods to determine the extent to which research carried out in the region was disseminated and/or implemented for management actions, and to understand subsequent implications for how local actors perceive the value of research and its role in management and conservation. We discuss the critical consequences of these findings for the future of conservation science and practice in biologically and culturally diverse landscapes, with an explicit call to action for academic institutions to support researchers in developing appropriate dissemination strategies.

Assessing the joint behaviour of species traits as filtered by environment

Understanding and predicting how species traits are shaped by prevailing environmental conditions is an important yet challenging task in ecology. Functional trait-based approaches can replace potentially idiosyncratic species-specific response models in learning about community behaviour across environmental gradients. Customarily, models for traits given environment consider only trait means to predict species and functional diversity, as intra-taxon variability in traits is often thought to be negligible. A growing body of literature indicates that intra-taxon trait variability is substantial and critical in structuring plant communities and assessing ecosystem function. We propose flexible joint trait distribution models given environment and across species that incorporate intra-taxon variability as well as inter-site/plot variability. Using a Bayesian framework, our joint trait distribution models allow for mixed continuous, binary and ordinal trait variables and incorporate dependence among traits enabling both joint and conditional trait prediction at unobserved sites. The models can be used to inform about the well-known fourth-corner problem, which attempts to interpret trait-by-environment matrices. We demonstrate the utility of our methodology through joint predictive trait distributions for individual species as well as joint community-weighted trait distributions for environments while incorporating intra-taxon trait variability. Explicit details on the probabilistic interpretations of the random trait-by-environment matrices obtained arising under our model are also provided to address the fourth-corner problem. Finally, our joint trait distribution model is applied to simulated and real vegetation data collected from the Greater Cape Floristic Region of South Africa. The proposed methodology places a fully model-based foundation on explaining intra-taxon trait variation given environment. It extends the utility and interpretability of commonly applied techniques for investigating community-weighted traits and illuminates randomness in the fourth-corner problem.