Matthew J. Winnick

Aridification of Central Asia and uplift of the Altai and Hangay Mountains, Mongolia: Stable isotope evidence

Central Asia has become increasingly arid during the Cenozoic, though the mechanisms behind this aridification remain unresolved. Much attention has focused on the influence and uplift history of the Tibetan Plateau. However, the role of ranges linked to India-Asia convergence but well north of the Plateau—including the Altai, Sayan, and Hangay—in creating the arid climate of Central Asia is poorly understood. Today, these ranges create a prominent rain shadow, effectively separating the boreal forest to the north from the deserts of Central Asia. To explore the role of these mountains in modifying climate since the late Eocene, we measured carbon and oxygen stable isotopes in paleosol carbonates from three basins along a 650 km long transect at the northern edge of the Gobi Desert in Mongolia and in the lee of the Altai and Hangay mountains. We combine these data with modern air-parcel back-trajectory modeling to understand regional moisture transport pathways at each basin. In all basins, δ13C increases, with the largest increase in western Mongolia. The first δ13C increase occurs in central and southwestern Mongolia in the Oligocene. δ13C again increases from the upper Miocene to the Quaternary in western and southwestern Mongolia. We use a 1-D soil diffusion model to demonstrate that these δ13C increases are linked to declines in soil respiration driven by dramatic increases in aridity. Using modern-day empirical relations between mean annual precipitation and soil respiration, we estimate that precipitation has likely more than halved over the Neogene. Given the importance of the Hangay and Altai in steering moisture in Mongolia, we attribute these changes to differential surface uplift of the Hangay and Altai. Surface uplift in the Hangay began by the early Oligocene, blocking Siberian moisture and aridifying the northern Gobi. In contrast, surface uplift of the Altai began in the late Miocene, blocking moisture from reaching western Mongolia. Thus, the northern Gobi became increasingly arid east to west since the late Eocene, likely driven by orographic development in the Hangay during the Oligocene and the Altai in the late Miocene through Pliocene.

Oxygen isotope mass-balance constraints on Pliocene sea level and East Antarctic Ice Sheet stability

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP, 3.3–2.9 Ma), with reconstructed atmospheric p CO2 of 350–450 ppm, represents a potential analogue for climate change in the near future. Current highly cited estimates place MPWP maximum global mean sea level (GMSL) at 21 ± 10 m above modern, requiring total loss of the Greenland and marine West Antarctic Ice Sheets and a substantial loss of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, with only a concurrent 2–3 °C rise in global temperature. Many estimates of Pliocene GMSL are based on the partitioning of oxygen isotope records from benthic foraminifera (δ18Ob) into changes in deep-sea temperatures and terrestrial ice sheets. These isotopic budgets are underpinned by the assumption that the δ18O of Antarctic ice (δ18Oi) was the same in the Pliocene as it is today, and while the sensitivity of δ18Ob to changing meltwater δ18O has been previously considered, these analyses neglect conservation of 18O/16O in the ocean-ice system. Using well-calibrated δ18O-temperature relationships for Antarctic precipitation along with estimates of Pliocene Antarctic surface temperatures, we argue that the δ18Oi of the Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet was at minimum 1‰–4‰ higher than present. Assuming conservation of 18O/16O in the ocean-ice system, this requires lower Pliocene seawater δ18O without a corresponding change in ice sheet mass. This effect alone accounts for 5%–20% of the δ18Ob difference between the MPWP interglacials and the modern. With this amended isotope budget, we present a new Pliocene GMSL estimate of 9–13.5 m above modern, which suggests that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is less sensitive to radiative forcing than previously inferred from the geologic record.

The impact of neogene grassland expansion and aridification on the isotopic composition of continental precipitation

The late Cenozoic was a time of global cooling, increased aridity, and expansion of grasslands. In the last two decades numerous records of oxygen isotopes have been collected to assess plant ecological changes, understand terrestrial paleoclimate, and to determine the surface history of mountain belts. The δ18O values of these records, in general, increase from the mid-Miocene to the Recent. We suggest that these records record an increase in aridity and expansion of grasslands in midlatitude continental regions. We use a nondimensional isotopic vapor transport model coupled with a soil water isotope model to evaluate the role of vapor recycling and transpiration by different plant functional types. This analysis shows that increased vapor recycling associated with grassland expansion along with biomechanistic changes in transpiration by grasses themselves conspires to lower the horizontal gradient in the δ18O of atmospheric vapor as an air mass moves into continental interiors. The resulting signal at a given inland site is an increase in δ18O of precipitation with the expansion of grasslands and increasing aridity, matching the general observed trend in terrestrial Cenozoic δ18O records. There are limits to the isotopic effect that are induced by vapor recycling, which we refer to here as a “hydrostat.” In the modern climate, this hydrostatic limit occurs at approximately the boundary between forest and grassland ecosystems.

Snowmelt controls on concentration-discharge relationships and the balance of oxidative and acid-base weathering fluxes in an alpine catchment, East River, Colorado

Although important for riverine solute and nutrient fluxes, the connections between biogeochemical processes and subsurface hydrology remain poorly characterized. We investigate these couplings in the East River, CO, a high-elevation shale-dominated catchment in the Rocky Mountains, using concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships for major cations, anions, and organic carbon. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) displays a positive C-Q relationship with clockwise hysteresis, indicating mobilization and depletion of DOC in the upper soil horizons and emphasizing the importance of shallow flowpaths during snowmelt. Cation and anion concentrations demonstrate that carbonate weathering, which dominates solute fluxes, is promoted by both sulfuric acid derived from pyrite oxidation in the shale bedrock and carbonic acid derived from subsurface respiration. Sulfuric acid weathering dominates during baseflow conditions when waters infiltrate below the inferred pyrite oxidation front, whereas carbonic acid weathering plays a dominant role during snowmelt as a result of shallow flowpaths. Differential C-Q relationships between solutes suggest that infiltrating waters approach calcite saturation before reaching the pyrite oxidation front, after which sulfuric acid reduces carbonate alkalinity. This reduction in alkalinity results in CO2 outgassing when waters equilibrate to surface conditions, and reduces the riverine export of carbon and alkalinity by roughly 33% annually. Future changes in snowmelt dynamics that control the balance of carbonic and sulfuric acid weathering may substantially alter carbon cycling in the East River. Ultimately, we demonstrate that differential C-Q relationships between major solutes can provide unique insights into the complex subsurface flow and biogeochemical dynamics that operate at catchment scales. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

A mechanistic analysis of early Eocene latitudinal gradients of isotopes in precipitation

We use a one-dimensional reactive transport model of isotopes in precipitation (δ18O) to investigate the physical mechanisms controlling global meridional isotope profiles under early Eocene hothouse conditions. Simulations of early Eocene precipitation isotopes display reduced meridional gradients relative to the modern climate with the largest increases in δ18O occurring at high latitudes, matching proxy data. These reduced gradients are controlled primarily by polar amplification that increases high-latitude length scales of specific humidity and match our compilation of proxy-based reconstructions. Comparing Eocene general circulation model simulations run with pCO2 of 2240 and 4480 ppm, we find that meridional isotopic profiles are insensitive to the associated 5°C change in global temperatures due to the relative lack of polar amplification. Finally, we hypothesize that observed negative δD anomalies in precipitation during peak warming of early Eocene hyperthermal events are the result of a theorized reduction in the strength of midlatitude transient eddies.