Matthias Albert

Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

BackgroundForest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we (1) characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios, (2) analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and (3) quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress.MethodsIn four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs (minimum, median, maximum) based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development.ResultsThe projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive.ConclusionsDrought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario, but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate counter-measures such as species conversion, species mixture or reduction of target diameter can be taken. This simulation study of three silvicultural scenarios and three climate runs spans a decision space of potential forest development to be used for decision making. Which adaptation measures to counteract climate induced risks and uncertainty are to be taken is, however, a matter of individual risk attitude.

The crown window - a simple device for measuring tree crowns.

The paper presents a new method for assessing crown radii at different tree heights, using a simple mechanical device, the crown window. The accuracy of the crown window measuring device is evaluated using measurement data from different objects. The device is easy to manufacture and proved to be more useful than other more sophisticated techniques, such as digital photo analysis or laser based instruments in estimating crown radii and their corresponding heights with acceptable accuracy.ZusammenfassungDas Kronenfenster ist ein neues Gerät zur Erfassung der Baumkronenradien in unterschiedlichen Baumhöhen. Die gewonnenen Daten bilden eine Grundlage für die Modellierung der Kronenform in Abhängigkeit von Baumart, Alter und unmittelbarem Umfeld der Bäume. In dieser Arbeit wird das Gerät beschrieben und die Meßgenauigkeit beurteilt. Das Kronenfenster kann relativ kostengünstig hergestellt werden. Zur Erfassung der Kronenform im Gelände ist das Meßverfahren geeigneter als andere Methoden, wie zum Beispiel die Analyse von Digitalphotos oder Messungen mit Lasergeräten.

Assessing citizen science opportunities in forest monitoring using probabilistic topic modelling

BackgroundWith mounting global environmental, social and economic pressures the resilience and stability of forests and thus the provisioning of vital ecosystem services is increasingly threatened. Intensified monitoring can help to detect ecological threats and changes earlier, but monitoring resources are limited. Participatory forest monitoring with the help of “citizen scientists” can provide additional resources for forest monitoring and at the same time help to communicate with stakeholders and the general public. Examples for citizen science projects in the forestry domain can be found but a solid, applicable larger framework to utilise public participation in the area of forest monitoring seems to be lacking. We propose that a better understanding of shared and related topics in citizen science and forest monitoring might be a first step towards such a framework.MethodsWe conduct a systematic meta-analysis of 1015 publication abstracts addressing “forest monitoring” and “citizen science” in order to explore the combined topical landscape of these subjects. We employ ‘topic modelling’, an unsupervised probabilistic machine learning method, to identify latent shared topics in the analysed publications.ResultsWe find that large shared topics exist, but that these are primarily topics that would be expected in scientific publications in general. Common domain-specific topics are under-represented and indicate a topical separation of the two document sets on “forest monitoring” and “citizen science” and thus the represented domains. While topic modelling as a method proves to be a scalable and useful analytical tool, we propose that our approach could deliver even more useful data if a larger document set and full-text publications would be available for analysis.ConclusionsWe propose that these results, together with the observation of non-shared but related topics, point at under-utilised opportunities for public participation in forest monitoring. Citizen science could be applied as a versatile tool in forest ecosystems monitoring, complementing traditional forest monitoring programmes, assisting early threat recognition and helping to connect forest management with the general public. We conclude that our presented approach should be pursued further as it may aid the understanding and setup of citizen science efforts in the forest monitoring domain.

Quantifying the effect of persistent dryer climates on forest productivity and implications for forest planning: a case study in northern Germany

BackgroundForest management decisions are based on expectations of future developments. For sound decisions it is essential to accurately predict the expected values in future developments and to account for their inherent uncertainty, for example the impact of climate change on forests. Changing climatic conditions affect forest productivity and alter the risk profile of forests and forest enterprises. Intensifying drought stress is seen as one major risk factor threatening forest management in the north German lowlands. Drought stress reduces tree growth and vitality and might even trigger mortality. But so far, it is not possible to quantify effects of a persistent dryer climate on forest productivity at a level suitable for forest management.MethodsWe apply a well-established single-tree forest growth simulator to quantify the effect of persistent dryer climates on future forest productivity. We analyse the growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and oak (Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) in two forest regions in the north German lowlands for a time interval of 60 years until 2070. The growth response under three different climate projections is compared to a baseline scenario.ResultsThe results show clear differences in volume increment to persistent dryer climates between tree species. The findings exhibit regional differences and temporal trends. While mean annual increment at biological rotation age of Scots pine and oak predominantly benefits from the projected climate conditions until 2070, beech might suffer losses of up to 3 m3·ha–1·yr–1 depending on climate scenario and region. However, in the projection period 2051 to 2070 the uncertainty ranges comprise positive as well as negative climatic effects for all species.ConclusionsThe projected changes in forest growth serve as quantitative contributions to provide decision support in the evaluation of, for example, species future site suitability and timber supply assessments. The analysis of productivity changes under persistent dryer climate complements the drought vulnerability assessment which is applied in practical forestry in northwestern Germany today. The projected species’ productivity has strong implications for forest management and the inherent uncertainty needs to be accounted for.