Maureen F. McNichols

Research design issues in earnings management studies

This paper discusses trade-oAs associated with three research designs commonly used in the earnings management literature: those based on aggregate accruals, those based on specific accruals and those based on the distribution of earnings after management. A key theme of the paper is that empirical procedures for aggregate accruals studies lag both our theories of incentives to manage accruals and our institutional knowledge of how accruals behave. Empirical findings suggest that aggregate accruals models that do not consider long-term earnings growth are potentially misspecified and can result in misleading inferences about earnings management behavior. It is suggested that future progress in the earnings management literature is more likely to come from application of specific accrual and distribution-based tests than from aggregate accruals tests. ” 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-Selection and Analyst Coverage

We examine implications of the conjecture that analysts announce recommendations and forecasts selectively, based upon whether their information about the firm is favorable. We propose this as an alternative to the common assumption that analysts introduce bias into their forecasts, and provide empirical evidence on this alternative. An effect of selective reporting is that ex post observed distributions of earnings forecast errors appear over-optimistic, even if each forecast is unbiased ex ante. This occurs because high forecasts are both more likely to be observed and more likely to be over-optimistic than low forecasts, for any given realization. We find strong evidence supporting the self-selection conjecture in analyst recommendations, and generally consistent evidence in analyst forecast errors. We also document that analysts avoid issuing negative information by sparse use of sell recommendations and by delaying downgrades, but not by avoiding downgrades altogether.

Have Financial Statements Become Less Informative? Evidence from the Ability of Financial Ratios to Predict Bankruptcy

Using a hazard model, we examine secular changes in the ability of financial statement data to predict bankruptcy from 1962 to 2002. We identify three trends in financial reporting that could influence predictive ability with respect to bankruptcy: FASB standards, the perceived increase in discretionary financial reporting behavior, and the increase in unrecognized assets and obligations. A parsimonious three-variable model provides significant explanatory power throughout the time period, with only a slight deterioration in predictive power from the first to the second time period. The striking feature of the results is the robustness of the predictive models over a forty-year period.

Public disclosure, private information collection, and short-term trading

Abstract This paper examines how public disclosure affects private inforamtion acquisition activity in a market economy. We analyze a setting where traders with short-term investment horizons are allowed to trade on their private information prior to a public disclosure. We demonstrate in this setting that public disclosure stimulates investment in private information acquisition. This result is shown to have implications for the magnitude of the pre-announcement and announcement price reactions to the disclosure.

The effect of the information environment on the relationship between financial disclosure and security price variability

Abstract This study provides a test of the relationship between changes in a firms disclosure environment and its security price behavior. The initiation of interim reporting is examined. Theory suggests that the marginal information content of an annual report is greater when it has not been preceded by interim reports and that greater return variability will be observed at the annual report announcement date. The variance of returns upon release of the annual report is compared in the ‘annual-report-only’ and ‘annual-plus-quarterly-reports’ environments. As predicted by the theory, variability is significantly greater in the ‘annual-report-only’ environment.

The Characteristics and Valuation of Loss Reserves of Property Casualty Insurers

This study examines characteristics and valuation of claim loss reserves of property casualty insurers. Using SEC disclosures of revisions (development) in loss reserve estimates, we document substantial serial correlation in loss reserve development, indicating that reported loss reserves do not fully reflect available information, consistent with management exercising discretion over reported loss reserves. We find that loss reserve development reported one year after the balance sheet date has significant explanatory power for firm value incremental to book value of equity and earnings, suggesting investors at least partially identify managements influence on reported loss reserves, and adjust firm values accordingly.

A comparison of the skewness of stock return distributions at earnings and non-earnings announcement dates ☆

Abstract This paper presents evidence that stock return prediction errors are less positively skewed in the time period surrounding accounting earnings report announcements than in a subsequent non- announcement period. Assuming that information available about firms in non-announcement periods depends on discretionary disclosure practices of firms and discretionary search for information by investors, the results suggest that earnings reports cause more extreme ‘bad news’ to be reflected in stock prices relative to discretionary sources of information.

Do Stock Prices of Property Casualty Insurers Fully Reflect Information about Earnings, Accruals, Cash Flows, and Development?

This paper examines whether the stock prices of property and casualty (P&C) insurers fully reflect information contained in earnings, cash flows and accruals, and one particular accrual—development of loss reserves. The reserve for policy losses is a major accrual for P&C firms, requires substantial judgment and is the subject of unique disclosures that reveal the ex post error in management estimates. We find that investors underestimate the persistence of cash flows and overestimate the persistence of accruals for P&C insurers, but our evidence suggests the market does not underestimate the persistence of the development accrual.

Discussion of “Why are Earnings Kinky? An Examination of the Earnings Management Explanation”

The Dechow et al. paper (2003, this issue) on the distribution of earnings raises an important question: why are earnings kinky? They conduct a number of tests of the earnings management explanation and do not find supportive evidence. They also provide evidence that a number of factors influence the magnitude of the discontinuity in earnings, suggesting that it is a poor proxy for the extent of earnings management. This discussion addresses the contribution of their study, the power of their tests and the implications for future research.

Financial Statement Analysis and the Prediction of Financial Distress

Financial statement analysis has been used to assess a companys likelihood of financial distress — the probability that it will not be able to repay its debts. Financial statement analysis was used by credit suppliers to assess the credit worthiness of its borrowers. Today, financial statement analysis is ubiquitous and involves a wide variety of ratios and a wide variety of users, including trade suppliers, banks, creditrating agencies, investors and management, among others. Financial distress refers to the inability of a company to pay its financial obligations as they mature. Empirically, academic research in accounting and finance has focused on either bond default or bankruptcy. The basic issue is whether the probability of distress varies in a significant manner conditional upon the magnitude of the financial statement ratios. This monograph discusses the evolution of three main streams within the financial distress prediction literature: The set of dependent and explanatory variables used, the statistical methods of estimation, and the modeling of financial distress.