Maurizio Prosperi

Economic analysis of the long-term effects of groundwater salinity: bringing the farmer’s perspectives into policy

Abstract This research estimates the economic losses at the farm level caused by groundwater over-exploitation and by seawater intrusion. The problem of coastal groundwater salinity was tackled by considering its hydrological, agronomic and economic aspects. Economic analysis for competitive use vs. regulated management regimes was carried out, considering constant and adaptive watering techniques. We concentrate on the farmers’ perspective of water as an input in agriculture, and assess discounted net present value over a period of 30 years. The ultimate goal of this research is to raise the awareness of farmers and policy makers by demonstrating the economic impacts (from the farmer’s point of view) of over-exploitation. Our findings for Apulia Region (Southern Italy) indicate that the slowness of the long-term effect of salinity and the ability of farmers to adapt irrigation profiles suggest broadening the perspective of policy intervention. For an effective management of this common resource, policy makers should follow a more comprehensive approach based on economic analysis.

Valutazione economica di una politica di riorientamento dei consumi alimentari finalizzata alla riduzione dell’obesità

Modern lifestyle is one among the most relevant causes of alimentary disorder and environmental problems. Preventing both of them implies a win-win strategy for the improvement of social wellness (i.e. health and environmental benefits). A suitable strategy could be addressed to the partial substitution of caloric food (e.g. beef meat), which is also responsible for a large amount of greenhouse gas (ghgs) emissions, with less caloric food (e.g. vegetables), which is proved of exerting a lower impact on climate change. The analysis is referred to the Italian case study, based on data from the Italian Statistical Institute (istat). The relationship between obesity and ghgs emissions is here explained experimentally through a 5-stage methodology. In the first step, a regression model (ols method) is adopted to explain obesity rate in terms of ratio of people consuming meat more than once a week, and the ratio of people consuming vegetables less than once a day. The outcome of this analysis allows simulating a policy target in terms of obesity abatement, provided by a reasonable change in food demand. In the third step, a meta-analysis of Life Cycle Assessment (lca) studies has been performed in order to calculate the CO2 emissions of the food types we considered. In the fourth step, the observed change in food demand from the previous step is combined with lca indicators, in order to evaluate the impact of food industry on climate change. Finally, in the fifth step, the benefits of the obesity reduction are calculated considering the cost saving for health care of the obesity, which amounts to 1.700 Eur per person. In addition, the value of the CO2 emission have been compared with the value of the European Union Allowance (eua) of CO2 emissions, which was evaluated in 2009 in terms of 21.45 eur/t CO2. Consequently, we found that the effect of the policy can be estimated in terms of 1,032 Million eur, of which the impacts on human health is the most important (about 1.020 Million eur). The study shows the evidence that the consumption of food with low content of calories has a most relevant effect in the reduction of obesity, but very limited economic effect in terms of CO2 emissions.

Criteria and methodology for the evaluation of water opportunity cost

Con il D.L.152/2006, lo Stato Italiano recepisce la direttiva comunitaria sulle acque 2000/60/CE. In particolare, i costi opportunita vengono interpretati come “i costi delle mancate opportunita imposte ad altri utenti in conseguenza dello sfruttamento intensivo delle risorse al di la del loro livello di ripristino e ricambio naturale”. La molteplicita di utilizzi dell’acqua e dei contesti operativi rende molto difficoltosa la valutazione del costo opportunita. A tal proposito, emerge che, mentre e gia disponibile un’abbondante letteratura relativa agli aspetti teorici e metodologici, i casi di studio reali (soprattutto ex-post) relativi ad analisi di progetti di investimento per l’ampliamento delle disponibilita e alla ri-allocazione delle risorse idriche sono ancora insufficienti. L’applicazione del costo opportunita consentirebbe di valutare i mancati benefici derivanti da un adeguato emungimento delle acque sotterranee in ambienti semi-aridi mediterranei, sottoposti a eccessivo sfruttamento per finalita irrigue.

Participatory Planning in Organic Solid Waste Management: A Backcasting Approach

The valorisation of the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) represents a relevant matter for local governments that may result in significant economic and environmental benefits. In particular, defining the most cost-effective and environmentally friendly OFMSW management strategy should be based upon the active involvement of local stakeholders in order to allow policymakers to take into account all possible environmental, social, technological, and financial OFMSW-related problems. In this framework the present chapter aims at outlining a long-term management plan for OFMSW in the case of the south-eastern Italian municipality of Foggia. To this end we have employed an adapted participatory backcasting experiment based upon a double-step procedure. By means of a focus group with experts on OFMSW management issues at the municipal level, we firstly identified the desired end point and the relative expected obstacles and opportunities. These were then discussed during a workshop organised with a group of local stakeholders, who identified and proposed all possible actions to be carried out in the short, medium, and long term to reach the identified end point. Such a participatory approach should contribute to reducing the bounded rationality and the subjectivity affecting decision-making processes as well as to broaden the knowledge base and to achieve a greater transparency in the definition of OFMSW management strategies.

Individuazione di buone pratiche volte a favorire l’accettabilità sociale a livello di comunità di progetti d’impianti a biomassa solida

The siting of solid biomass energy plants can be conceived as a transaction process taking place between two specific economic agents, the investor and local community. The investor is interested in obtaining the use right for local resources (e.g. area for setting; natural resources to feed the process, release of pollutants in the environment) while the community expects an increase of net benefits (es. job opportunities, induced industrial development, revitalization of the local economy). This transaction process has been analyzed according to the typical transaction costs theory, where the economic activities are conceived as the result of transactions among economic agents, which are hindered by three main obstacles: a) bounded rationality, b) opportunism, c) asset specificity. By applying the New Institutional theory approach, we treat the issue of social acceptance as a transaction cost problem. The aim is to identify the best practices adopted by biomass firms managers in order to enhance the social acceptance of solid biomass plants at local community level. In this paper we conduct a positive analysis where the methodological approach is based on the comparison of five case successful study cases. This allowed us to identify thirteen measures, capable to foster the social acceptance, and consequently to reduce the costs related to the investment.

Il ruolo degli stili alimentari nella determinazione dell’obesità in età evolutiva

Obesity is one of Europe’s most serious public health challenges. The prevalence of obesity and overweight is reaching considerable levels especially in the South of Italy. There is a large body of literature about the determinants of obesity and political tools for its prevention and reduction. This paper aims to analyse the obesity phenomenon through the study of teenagers’ eating habits. Unhealthy lifestyles, in particular alcohol, snack and junk food are investigated. The study is based on a case study referred to a population of 900 students (age 11-19) in the city of Foggia. Results of cluster analysis show three segments Sedentary people (47%), Dynamic people (26%) and Moderate people (27%); results of regression show that BMI increases in each cluster for different causes and the effect of the same food product is different for the three segments. These results suggest that an integrated approach of marketing and public health may have a positive impact on the prevention of obesity and overweight.

Water policy design to enhance a sustainable use of groundwater resources in agriculture

In the last decade, groundwater demand has been quickly increasing, and overexploitation has been already recognized in many regions. In this research a case study where the groundwater resource is used for the irrigation is analyzed. The study shows a common case in the cost line of the Mediterranean regions (Apulia region, Italy), for which salt incursion from see is largely quoted. An integrated model with hydrologic, agronomic and economic themes has been built to perform farmer’s behaviors under three different water policy designs. Namely, status quo scenario where groundwater is subjected to competitive and free access use and, two different groundwater allotments restrictions, has been analyzed. Taking into account discounted farmer’s net value, findings here show as competitive use is not the most convenient groundwater management. Reduction in groundwater exploitation rate implemented with all the other scenarios show a more profitable use of this resource over time.

Evaluation of social acceptance of solid biomass plants projects using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps.

I costi legati all’accettabilita sociale dei grandi impianti a biomassa solida possono raggiungere livelli critici pari addirittura al 30% del valore dell’investimento e giocare quindi un ruolo di primo piano nelle scelte di investitori e policy maker. Data la rilevanza dell’accettabilita sociale, il presente lavoro si propone di individuarne le determinanti nel caso dei progetti di impianti a biomassa solida attraverso una tecnica di indagine semi-quantitativa basata sulle Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) applicata a un caso studio relativo alla provincia di Foggia. Tale metodologia permette di analizzare in maniera razionale le percezioni degli stakeholder al fine di fornire un supporto informativo per la messa a punto di adeguate misure di mitigazione.

Chapter 6:Modelling Stakeholders’ Interplay and Policy Scenarios for Biorefinery Implementation

This chapter is structured in two parts dealing with the very same problem – that is, assessing and modelling stakeholder interplay and policy scenarios forthe development of biorefineries and biodiesel production. They target, however, the problem from two distinct perspectives: micro and macro. The first part of the chapter presents the micro-economic perspective, assessing the methodological approach for policy modelling and policy evaluation. This investigation builds on the multi-level approach (MLA) for the study of technological trajectories. MLA should be conceived as a nested framework formed by linked levels: socio-technical regime, socio-technical landscape and innovation niches. Within such a framework, we focus our attention on the innovation niche and its emerging process. This is done by a three-step methodology. The first step aims at assessing the niche development status and makes use of Social Network Analysis and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. In the second step we employ agent-based analysis for the development of an archetype model to investigating the key internal dynamics of the niche. The third step focuses on the evaluation of policy actions using a well-known criterion, that is the efficiency of the actions studied by means of the Data Envelopment Analysis. In the second part of this chapter we turn to the macro-perspective, presenting a computable general equilibrium model. Here, we use counterfactual simulations to assess how consumer welfare is affected in the following cases: (1) a change in technology to comply with the European Union commitment to renewable energy use; (2) the implementation of different tax (or subsidy) rates on energy inputs and emissions, at either national or EU level; (3) a change in land-use, if biorefineries and biodiesel are considered as inputs to production. Both the micro- and the macro-economic approaches are designed to respond to two key policy objectives: (1) to develop policy scenarios for biodiesel and biorefinery production through the analysis of social network interactions across stakeholders and consumer welfare; (2) to understand the evolution of various environmental, economic and policy constraints within a sustainable development framework for biofuel and biorefinery energy sectors.