Mauro Antonio di Vito

The Astroni volcano: the only example of closely spaced eruptions in the same vent area during the recent history of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

Abstract The Astroni volcano formed during the third and most recent epoch of activity (4.8–3.8 ka) of the Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc). The activity of the volcano was dominated by explosive, mostly phreatomagmatic eruptions, with only subordinate lava effusions. We have grouped the sequence of deposits into seven distinct units, separated by erosional unconformities or very thin paleosols. The units include mostly surge beds, with subordinate strombolian deposits and lavas, and one plinian fallout layer. The total volume of erupted magma is 0.45 km3 (DRE), while the total mass is 1.12×1012 kg. The magma feeding the first five eruptions was alkali-trachytic and slightly zoned, while the last two eruptions tapped a magma batch resulting from mixing of the previously extruded alkali-trachytic and a less evolved trachytic magma. The volcano grew at the northwestern edge of the polygonal volcano-tectonic collapse, northwest–southeast elongated, which accompanied the Agnano–Monte Spina eruption (4.1 ka), the largest of the third epoch. Available radiometric dates and stratigraphical data constrain the age of the volcano in the final part of the 4.1–3.8 ka time span. This implies that the seven eruptions followed each other at very short time intervals. This conclusion is also supported by constancy in archaeological facies of findings within the paleosols between variable Astroni units, in the plain north of the caldera. The sequence of close eruptions in the same area, although with a slight migration of the vent from northwest to southeast, makes the Astroni volcano peculiar in the recent history of the CFc. Therefore, the definition of its history is very important in order to understand one of the past phenomenologies of the caldera, relevant elements to forecast its behavior.

Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy

The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part. The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that, combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera, which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore, it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera.

Magma transfer at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) before the 1538 AD eruption

Calderas are collapse structures related to the emptying of magmatic reservoirs, often associated with large eruptions from long-lived magmatic systems. Understanding how magma is transferred from a magma reservoir to the surface before eruptions is a major challenge. Here we exploit the historical, archaeological and geological record of Campi Flegrei caldera to estimate the surface deformation preceding the Monte Nuovo eruption and investigate the shallow magma transfer. Our data suggest a progressive magma accumulation from ~1251 to 1536 in a 4.6 ± 0.9 km deep source below the caldera centre, and its transfer, between 1536 and 1538, to a 3.8 ± 0.6 km deep magmatic source ~4 km NW of the caldera centre, below Monte Nuovo; this peripheral source fed the eruption through a shallower source, 0.4 ± 0.3 km deep. This is the first reconstruction of pre-eruptive magma transfer at Campi Flegrei and corroborates the existence of a stationary oblate source, below the caldera centre, that has been feeding lateral eruptions for the last ~5 ka. Our results suggest: 1) repeated emplacement of magma through intrusions below the caldera centre; 2) occasional lateral transfer of magma feeding non-central eruptions within the caldera. Comparison with historical unrest at calderas worldwide suggests that this behavior is common.

The Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling Project (CFDDP): New insight on caldera structure, evolution and hazard implications for the Naples area (Southern Italy)

The 501 m deep hole of the Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling Project, located west of the Naples metropolitan area and inside the Campi Flegrei caldera, gives new insight to reconstruct the volcano-tectonic evolution of this highly populated volcano. It is one of the highest risk volcanic areas in the world, but its tectonic structure, eruptive history, and size of the largest eruptions are intensely debated in the literature. New stratigraphic and 40Ar/39Ar geochronological dating allow us to determine, for the first time, the age of intracaldera deposits belonging to the two highest magnitude caldera-forming eruptions (i.e., Campanian Ignimbrite, CI, 39 ka, and Neapolitan Yellow Tuff, NYT, 14.9 ka) and to estimate the amount of collapse. Tuffs from 439 m of depth yield the first 40Ar/39Ar age of ca. 39 ka within the caldera, consistent with the CI. Volcanic rocks from the NYT were, moreover, detected between 250 and 160 m. Our findings highlight: (i) a reduction of the area affected by caldera collapse, which appears to not include the city of Naples; (ii) a small volume of the infilling caldera deposits, particularly for the CI, and (iii) the need for reassessment of the collapse amounts and mechanisms related to larger eruptions. Our results also imply a revaluation of volcanic risk for the eastern caldera area, including the city of Naples. The results of this study point out that large calderas are characterized by complex collapse mechanisms and dynamics, whose understanding needs more robust constraints, which can be obtained from scientific drilling.

Suitability of energy cone for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment: validation tests at Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy)

Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are gravity-driven hot mixtures of gas and volcanic particles which can propagate at high speed and cover distances up to several tens of kilometers around a given volcano. Therefore, they pose a severe hazard to the surroundings of explosive volcanoes able to produce such phenomena. Despite this threat, probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) of PDCs is still in an early stage of development. PVHA is rooted in the quantification of the large uncertainties (aleatory and epistemic) which characterize volcanic hazard analyses. This quantification typically requires a big dataset of hazard footprints obtained from numerical simulations of the physical process. For PDCs, numerical models range from very sophisticated (not useful for PVHA because of their very long runtimes) to very simple models (criticized because of their highly simplified physics). We present here a systematic and robust validation testing of a simple PDC model, the energy cone (EC), to unravel whether it can be applied to PVHA of PDCs. Using past PDC deposits at Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy), we assess the ability of EC to capture the values and variability in some relevant variables for hazard assessment, i.e., area of PDC invasion and maximum runout. In terms of area of invasion, the highest Jaccard coefficients range from 0.33 to 0.86 which indicates an equal or better performance compared to other volcanic mass-flow models. The p values for the observed maximum runouts vary from 0.003 to 0.44. Finally, the frequencies of PDC arrival computed from the EC are similar to those determined from the spatial distribution of past PDC deposits, with high PDC-arrival frequencies over an ∼8-km radius from the crater area at Somma-Vesuvius and around the Astroni crater at Campi Flegrei. The insights derived from our validation tests seem to indicate that the EC is a suitable candidate to compute PVHA of PDCs.

Syneruptive sequential fragmentation of pyroclasts from fractal modeling of grain size distributions of fall deposits: the Cretaio Tephra eruption (Ischia Island, Italy)

Abstract In this work we use fractal statistics in order to decipher the mechanisms acting during explosive volcanic eruptions by studying the grain size distribution (GSD) of natural pyroclastic-fall deposits. The method was applied to lithic-rich proximal deposits from a stratigraphic section of the Cretaio Tephra eruption (Ischia Island, Italy). Analyses were performed separately on bulk material, juvenile, and lithic fraction from each pyroclastic layer. Results highlight that the bulk material is characterized by a single scaling regime whereas two scaling regimes, with contrasting power-law exponents, are observed for the juvenile and the lithic fractions. On the basis of these results, we infer that the bulk material cannot be considered as a good proxy for deducing eruption dynamics because it is the result of mixing of fragments belonging to the lithic and juvenile fraction, both of which underwent different events of fragmentation governed by different mechanisms. In addition, results from fractal analyses of the lithic fraction suggest that it likely experienced a fragmentation event in which the efficiency of fragmentation was larger for the coarser fragments relative to the finer ones. On the contrary, we interpret the different scaling regimes observed for the juvenile fraction to be due to sequential events of fragmentation in the conduit, possibly enhanced by the presence of lithic fragments in the eruptive mixture. In particular, collisional events generated increasing amounts of finer particles modifying the original juvenile GSDs and determining the development of two scaling regimes in which the finer fragments record a higher efficiency of fragmentation relative to the coarser ones. We further suggest that in lithic-rich proximal fall deposits possible indications about the original GSDs of the juvenile fraction might still reside in the coarser particles fraction.