Mauro Ferrante

Seasonal pattern and amplitude - a logical framework to analyse seasonality in tourism: an application to bed occupancy in Sicilian hotels

Many studies have investigated seasonality in tourism in terms of its causes and impacts, from both theoretical and applied perspectives. However, the definition of seasonality and, most of all, its application and measurement have not received the same degree of attention. In recognizing that seasonality has two main facets – pattern and amplitude – this paper critically examines the main seasonality measures proposed in the tourism literature, classifying them according to their properties and their most appropriate use. The framework then proposed is used to analyse a standard and comparable efficiency measure, such as the bed occupancy rate of Sicilian accommodation establishments, placing particular attention on its seasonality.

A general framework for collecting and analysing the tracking data of cruise passengers at the destination

Cruise passengers’ behaviour at the destination is a rather poorly investigated phenomenon. The single exit/entry point and the relatively brief visiting time, which characterize cruise passengers’ experience at their destinations, make the use of GPS technology particularly suitable for the analysis of such a relevant phenomenon. The aim of this research is to propose a general framework for collecting and analysing GPS tracking data relating to cruise passengers’ behaviour at their destination. The main prerequisites and research stages for the implementation of surveys on cruise passengers will be described and a set of tools and measures for the analysis of GPS tracking data will be proposed, together with their potential applications. As examples of case studies, two surveys performed in the ports of Palermo and Dubrovnik will be described and the main results of the collated information will be presented. Improving our understanding of the behaviour of cruise passengers at their destination is particularly relevant for the management of tourism destinations, given the challenges that this growing phenomenon is posing for many port destinations in the Mediterranean.

Measuring Seasonality: Performance of Accommodation Establishments in Sicily Through the Analysis of Occupancy Rates

Seasonal variations in tourism demand are a central theme, not only in tourism literature, but also in the field of policy decision making of a destination. Generally, seasonality is perceived as a problem with serious implications for all aspects of supply side behavior (Baum and Hagen 1999). For the accommodation sector, the relatively high fixed costs make seasonality a relevant issue. An extended season, lower variability in tourism demand, and high occupancy levels, are desirable goals for managers of accommodation establishments. In South of Italy the share of employees in HORECA (hotel, restaurant, and catering) sector in 2006 was of 4.7%, though the overall impact is likely to be higher if other tourism related activities would be considered. Particularly, Sicily seems to have a great potential coming from its tourism resources, and most of the recent development programmes have focused on tourism.

A new index for measuring seasonality: A transportation cost approach

Seasonal fluctuations characterize many natural and social phenomena. Although the causes and impacts of seasonality are generally well documented in different study contexts, and many methods for isolating the seasonal component have been developed, considerably less attention has been paid to the measurement of the degree of seasonality. After reviewing the main indices used for measuring seasonality in different study contexts, we will propose a new approach in which seasonality is evaluated on the basis of the solution of a transportation problem. By considering the interdisciplinary nature of seasonal phenomena, the topic of measuring seasonality merits attention from a wide variety of perspectives.

Developing and validating a novel multisource comorbidity score from administrative data: a large population-based cohort study from Italy

Objective To develop and validate a novel comorbidity score (multisource comorbidity score (MCS)) predictive of mortality, hospital admissions and healthcare costs using multiple source information from the administrative Italian National Health System (NHS) databases. Methods An index of 34 variables (measured from inpatient diagnoses and outpatient drug prescriptions within 2 years before baseline) independently predicting 1-year mortality in a sample of 500 000 individuals aged 50 years or older randomly selected from the NHS beneficiaries of the Italian region of Lombardy (training set) was developed. The corresponding weights were assigned from the regression coefficients of a Weibull survival model. MCS performance was evaluated by using an internal (ie, another sample of 500 000 NHS beneficiaries from Lombardy) and three external (each consisting of 500 000 NHS beneficiaries from Emilia-Romagna, Lazio and Sicily) validation sets. Discriminant power and net reclassification improvement were used to compare MCS performance with that of other comorbidity scores. MCS ability to predict secondary health outcomes (ie, hospital admissions and costs) was also investigated. Results Primary and secondary outcomes progressively increased with increasing MCS value. MCS improved the net 1-year mortality reclassification from 27% (with respect to the Chronic Disease Score) to 69% (with respect to the Elixhauser Index). MCS discrimination performance was similar in the four regions of Italy we tested, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (95% CI) being 0.78 (0.77 to 0.79) in Lombardy, 0.78 (0.77 to 0.79) in Emilia-Romagna, 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78) in Lazio and 0.78 (0.77 to 0.79) in Sicily. Conclusion MCS seems better than conventional scores for predicting health outcomes, at least in the general population from Italy. This may offer an improved tool for risk adjustment, policy planning and identifying patients in need of a focused treatment approach in the everyday medical practice.

Tourism Statistics for Destination Management: The Trips/Arrivals Model

Simply counting the number of tourists in a destination is not as simple as one might initially think. The present work intends to formalize a conceptual model by decomposing tourism nights, trips, and average duration of visit in a given destination, in terms of quantities and parameters that only for a small part could be derived from official tourism statistics. On the other hand, most of the quantities and parameters required for determining the number of tourists in a given destination are in general unknown, and need to be (directly or indirectly) estimated. Empirical evidences resulting from a survey on incoming tourism in Sicily are provided, showing the biases affecting supply-side statistics on tourism when they are used as a measure of tourism flows in a destination. The changing nature of demand and the increasing segmentation of the holyday market also raise the need for more accurate, destination-based, information, and the model proposed can assist destination managers and researchers in facing the problem of quantifying and analysing tourism behaviours.

Multi-destination trips: A survey on incoming zourism in Sicily

Many pleasure trips are often characterized by the visit of more than a single destination. Despite the topic is well documented in literature, the empirical studies are limited to a few pioneering studies. This lack may be attributable to the failure of tourism organizations to collect data on multi-destination trip behaviors, as it results, for example, from the system of European statistics on tourism (according to the Council Directive 95/57 EC), where no information on the average number of destinations visited within a single trip are provided. This paper aims to analyze the main implications of multi-destination trips both on tourism statistics and in tourism planning, and to describe the research design and the solutions adopted for the analysis of incoming tourism in Sicily. Some results related to the number of destinations visited and on the main travel itineraries undertaken by tourists in Sicily derived from the survey are presented.