Stefano De Cantis

Seasonal pattern and amplitude - a logical framework to analyse seasonality in tourism: an application to bed occupancy in Sicilian hotels

Many studies have investigated seasonality in tourism in terms of its causes and impacts, from both theoretical and applied perspectives. However, the definition of seasonality and, most of all, its application and measurement have not received the same degree of attention. In recognizing that seasonality has two main facets – pattern and amplitude – this paper critically examines the main seasonality measures proposed in the tourism literature, classifying them according to their properties and their most appropriate use. The framework then proposed is used to analyse a standard and comparable efficiency measure, such as the bed occupancy rate of Sicilian accommodation establishments, placing particular attention on its seasonality.

An elevated body mass index increases lung volume but reduces airflow in Italian schoolchildren.

Background Asthma and obesity are important and growing health issues worldwide. Obesity is considered a risk factor for asthma, due to the induction of changes in airway mechanics and altered airway inflammation. Methods We cross-sectionally investigated the effect of increased weight on pulmonary function in a large population sample of healthy children, aged 10–17 yrs living in Palermo, Italy. Explanatory effect of weight on lung function variables were evaluated by multiple linear regression models, taking into account height, gender, and age-class. Results Among the 2,393 subjects, FVC and FEV1 were positively correlated to weight. Multiple regression models showed that the weight beta coefficient for FEV1 was significantly lower with respect to that for FVC (0.005 and 0.009 l/kg, respectively), indicating a different magnitude in explanatory effect of weight on FVC and FEV1. Both FEV1/FVC and FEF25–75%/FVC ratios were negatively correlated to weight, while FEF25–75% was not significantly correlated. Similar results were obtained also when 807 symptomatic subjects were introduced in the model through a sensitivity analysis. Conclusion In healthy children, the disproportionate increase of FEV1 and FVC with weight produces airflow decrease and consequently apparent poorer lung function independently from respiratory disease status.

Assessment of the frequency of additional cancers in patients with splenic marginal zone lymphoma

Abstract:  Objectives: Solid second primary cancers (SPC) have become an issue of extensive research. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the standardised incidence ratio (SIR) and the absolute excess risk (AER) of SPC in patients with splenic marginal zone lymphoma (SMZL).Methods: We investigated the incidence of additional cancers in 129 patients consecutively diagnosed with SMZL in three Italian haematological centres, asking the cooperating doctors for additional information on initial and subsequent therapies and on the onset and type of second cancers.Results: Twelve SPC were recorded (9.3%); the 3‐ and 5‐yr cumulative incidence rates were 5.5% and 18.3% respectively, with an SIR of 2.03 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05–3.56; P < 0.05; AER = 145.81]. Of 12 SPC observed, four were urinary tract neoplasms (SIR, 3.70; 95% CI: 1.01–9.48; P < 0.05; AER = 70.06), four were lung cancers (SIR, 9.16; 95% CI: 1.41–13.25; P < 0.05; AER = 85.50) and the other four were hepatic carcinoma, endometrial cancer, breast cancer and colorectal cancer. Conclusions: Our findings evidence a high frequency of additional cancers in patients with SMZL and suggest that the incidence rate of SPC is significantly different from that expected in the general population. The frequency of cases with urinary tract and lung malignancies in our series is higher than expected. Although confirmatory data are needed, it is our opinion that SMZL patients are at risk of second cancer and should be carefully investigated on diagnosis and monitored during the follow‐up.

A general framework for collecting and analysing the tracking data of cruise passengers at the destination

Cruise passengers’ behaviour at the destination is a rather poorly investigated phenomenon. The single exit/entry point and the relatively brief visiting time, which characterize cruise passengers’ experience at their destinations, make the use of GPS technology particularly suitable for the analysis of such a relevant phenomenon. The aim of this research is to propose a general framework for collecting and analysing GPS tracking data relating to cruise passengers’ behaviour at their destination. The main prerequisites and research stages for the implementation of surveys on cruise passengers will be described and a set of tools and measures for the analysis of GPS tracking data will be proposed, together with their potential applications. As examples of case studies, two surveys performed in the ports of Palermo and Dubrovnik will be described and the main results of the collated information will be presented. Improving our understanding of the behaviour of cruise passengers at their destination is particularly relevant for the management of tourism destinations, given the challenges that this growing phenomenon is posing for many port destinations in the Mediterranean.

Measuring Seasonality: Performance of Accommodation Establishments in Sicily Through the Analysis of Occupancy Rates

Seasonal variations in tourism demand are a central theme, not only in tourism literature, but also in the field of policy decision making of a destination. Generally, seasonality is perceived as a problem with serious implications for all aspects of supply side behavior (Baum and Hagen 1999). For the accommodation sector, the relatively high fixed costs make seasonality a relevant issue. An extended season, lower variability in tourism demand, and high occupancy levels, are desirable goals for managers of accommodation establishments. In South of Italy the share of employees in HORECA (hotel, restaurant, and catering) sector in 2006 was of 4.7%, though the overall impact is likely to be higher if other tourism related activities would be considered. Particularly, Sicily seems to have a great potential coming from its tourism resources, and most of the recent development programmes have focused on tourism.

A new index for measuring seasonality: A transportation cost approach

Seasonal fluctuations characterize many natural and social phenomena. Although the causes and impacts of seasonality are generally well documented in different study contexts, and many methods for isolating the seasonal component have been developed, considerably less attention has been paid to the measurement of the degree of seasonality. After reviewing the main indices used for measuring seasonality in different study contexts, we will propose a new approach in which seasonality is evaluated on the basis of the solution of a transportation problem. By considering the interdisciplinary nature of seasonal phenomena, the topic of measuring seasonality merits attention from a wide variety of perspectives.

The Analysis of Poverty in Italy: A Fuzzy Dynamic Approach

The commonly used criterion to sharply separate the poor from the non poor on the basis of a poverty threshold appears to be too severe in comparison with the nature of poverty. The latter is multidimensional in its components (domain) and continue in its states (codomain). Moreover an income-based poverty line allows for a remarkable number of spurious transitions below and over that line, which do not correspond to true variations in household’s standard of living. This study starts from the analysis of common (with crisp states) transition matrices; then a fuzzy multidimensional poverty indicator is built. In conclusion, fuzzy states transition matrices synthesize interpretative content of previously proposed instruments for the analysis of poverty.

Tourism Statistics for Destination Management: The Trips/Arrivals Model

Simply counting the number of tourists in a destination is not as simple as one might initially think. The present work intends to formalize a conceptual model by decomposing tourism nights, trips, and average duration of visit in a given destination, in terms of quantities and parameters that only for a small part could be derived from official tourism statistics. On the other hand, most of the quantities and parameters required for determining the number of tourists in a given destination are in general unknown, and need to be (directly or indirectly) estimated. Empirical evidences resulting from a survey on incoming tourism in Sicily are provided, showing the biases affecting supply-side statistics on tourism when they are used as a measure of tourism flows in a destination. The changing nature of demand and the increasing segmentation of the holyday market also raise the need for more accurate, destination-based, information, and the model proposed can assist destination managers and researchers in facing the problem of quantifying and analysing tourism behaviours.

Collapsibility and Collapsing Multidimensional Contingency Tables—Perspectives and Implications

Collapsing multidimensional contingency tables is a necessary procedure in all kinds of research. Since collapsibility is subject to severe conditions, collapsing is often not admissible without incurring severe interpretative errors. After having discussed the main contributions to the statistical specification of the concept, we shall point out the logical conditions for collapsing multidimensional contingency tables.

Multi-destination trips: A survey on incoming zourism in Sicily

Many pleasure trips are often characterized by the visit of more than a single destination. Despite the topic is well documented in literature, the empirical studies are limited to a few pioneering studies. This lack may be attributable to the failure of tourism organizations to collect data on multi-destination trip behaviors, as it results, for example, from the system of European statistics on tourism (according to the Council Directive 95/57 EC), where no information on the average number of destinations visited within a single trip are provided. This paper aims to analyze the main implications of multi-destination trips both on tourism statistics and in tourism planning, and to describe the research design and the solutions adopted for the analysis of incoming tourism in Sicily. Some results related to the number of destinations visited and on the main travel itineraries undertaken by tourists in Sicily derived from the survey are presented.