Max Berkelhammer

An Abrupt Shift in the Indian Monsoon 4000 Years Ago

Climates, Landsca Geophysical Mon

Trends and oscillations in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall over the last two millennia

Observations show that summer rainfall over large parts of South Asia has declined over the past five to six decades. It remains unclear, however, whether this trend is due to natural variability or increased anthropogenic aerosol loading over South Asia. Here we use stable oxygen isotopes in speleothems from northern India to reconstruct variations in Indian monsoon rainfall over the last two millennia. We find that within the long-term context of our record, the current drying trend is not outside the envelope of monsoons oscillatory variability, albeit at the lower edge of this variance. Furthermore, the magnitude of multi-decadal oscillatory variability in monsoon rainfall inferred from our proxy record is comparable to model estimates of anthropogenic-forced trends of mean monsoon rainfall in the 21st century under various emission scenarios. Our results suggest that anthropogenic-forced changes in monsoon rainfall will remain difficult to detect against a backdrop of large natural variability.

Correlations between components of the water balance and burned area reveal new insights for predicting forest fire area in the southwest United States

We related measurements of annual burned area in the southwest United States during 1984-2013 to records of climate variability. Within forests, annual burned area correlated at least as strongly with spring-summer vapour pressure deficit (VPD) as with 14 other drought-related metrics, including more complex metrics that explicitly represent fuel moisture. Particularly strong correlations with VPD arise partly because this term dictates the atmospheric moisture demand. Additionally, VPD responds to moisture supply, which is difficult to measure and model regionally due to complex micrometeorology, land cover and terrain. Thus, VPD appears to be a simple and holistic indicator of regional water balance. Coupled with the well-known positive influence of prior-year cold season precipitation on fuel availability and connectivity, VPD may be utilised for burned area forecasts and also to infer future trends, though these are subject to othercomplicatingfactorssuchaslandcoverchangeandmanagement.Assuminganaggressivegreenhousegasemissions scenario, climate models predict mean spring-summer VPD will exceed the highest recorded values in the southwest in nearly40%ofyearsbythemiddleofthiscentury.Theseresultsforewarnofcontinuedincreasesinburnedforestareainthe southwest United States, and likely elsewhere, when fuels are not limiting. Additional keywords: fire danger, tree mortality, warming.

Causes and Implications of Extreme Atmospheric Moisture Demand during the Record-Breaking 2011 Wildfire Season in the Southwestern United States

AbstractIn 2011, exceptionally low atmospheric moisture content combined with moderately high temperatures to produce a record-high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in the southwestern United States (SW). These conditions combined with record-low cold-season precipitation to cause widespread drought and extreme wildfires. Although interannual VPD variability is generally dominated by temperature, high VPD in 2011 was also driven by a lack of atmospheric moisture. The May–July 2011 dewpoint in the SW was 4.5 standard deviations below the long-term mean. Lack of atmospheric moisture was promoted by already very dry soils and amplified by a strong ocean-to-continent sea level pressure gradient and upper-level convergence that drove dry northerly winds and subsidence upwind of and over the SW. Subsidence drove divergence of rapid and dry surface winds over the SW, suppressing southerly moisture imports and removing moisture from already dry soils. Model projections developed for the fifth phase of the Coupled Mod...

Constraining surface carbon fluxes using in situ measurements of carbonyl sulfide and carbon dioxide

Understanding the processes that control the terrestrial exchange of carbon is critical for assessing atmospheric CO2 budgets. Carbonyl sulfide (COS) is taken up by vegetation during photosynthesis following a pathway that mirrors CO2 but has a small or nonexistent emission component, providing a possible tracer for gross primary production. Field measurements of COS and CO2 mixing ratios were made in forest, senescent grassland, and riparian ecosystems using a laser absorption spectrometer installed in a mobile trailer. Measurements of leaf fluxes with a branch-bag gas-exchange system were made across species from 10 genera of trees, and soil fluxes were measured with a flow-through chamber. These data show (1) the existence of a narrow normalized daytime uptake ratio of COS to CO2 across vascular plant species of 1.7, providing critical information for the application of COS to estimate photosynthetic CO2 fluxes and (2) a temperature-dependent normalized uptake ratio of COS to CO2 from soils. Significant nighttime uptake of COS was observed in broad-leafed species and revealed active stomatal opening prior to sunrise. Continuous high-resolution joint measurements of COS and CO2 concentrations in the boundary layer are used here alongside the flux measurements to partition the influence that leaf and soil fluxes and entrainment of air from above have on the surface carbon budget. The results provide a number of critical constraints on the processes that control surface COS exchange, which can be used to diagnose the robustness of global models that are beginning to use COS to constrain terrestrial carbon exchange.

The moisture source sequence for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation as derived from satellite retrievals of HDO and H2O

A number of competing theories to explain the initiation mechanism, longevity and propagation characteristics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) have been developed from observational analysis of the tropical climate and minimal dynamical models. Using the isotopic composition of atmospheric moisture from paired satellite retrievals of H2O and HDO from the boundary layer and mid troposphere, we identify the different sources of moisture that feed MJO convection during its life cycle. These fluxes are then associated with specific dynamical processes. The HDO/H2O isotope ratio data show that during the early phase of the MJO, the mid-troposphere is dominated by moisture evaporated from the ocean surface that was transported vertically undergoing minimal distillation. The contribution from the evaporative source diminishes during early convective activity but reappears during the peak of MJO activity along with an isotopically depleted flux, which is hypothesized to originate from easterly convergence. The contribution of different moisture sources as shown from the HDO/H2O data is consistent with model results where the sustaining of deep convection requires a feedback between convergence, precipitation strength and evaporation. In the wake of an MJO event, the weak vertical isotopic gradient, depletion in boundary layer delta D and the uniquely moist and depleted vapor in the mid troposphere all point toward a prominent presence of moisture originated from rainfall re-evaporation, which confirms the prediction that the transition from convective to stratiform rains is important to the moisture budget of the MJO.

Convergent approaches to determine an ecosystem's transpiration fraction

The transpiration (T) fraction of total terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET), T/ET, can vary across ecosystems between 20–95% with a global average of ∼60%. The wide range may either reflect true heterogeneity between ecosystems and/or uncertainties in the techniques used to derive this property. Here we compared independent approaches to estimate T/ET at two needleleaf forested sites with a factor of 3 difference in leaf area index (LAI). The first method utilized water vapor isotope profiles and the second derived transpiration through its functional relationship with gross primary production. We found strong agreement between T/ET values from these two independent approaches although we noted a discrepancy at low vapor pressure deficits (VPD). We hypothesize that this divergence arises because stomatal conductance is independent of humidity at low VPD. Overall, we document significant synoptic-scale T/ET variability but minimal growing season-scale variability. This result indicates a high sensitivity of T/ET to passing weather but convergence toward a stable mean state, which is set by LAI. While changes in T/ET could emerge from a myriad of processes, including aboveground (LAI) or belowground (rooting depth) changes, there was only minimal interannual variability and no secular trend in our analysis of T/ET from the 15 year eddy covariance time series at Niwot Ridge. If the lack of trend observed here is apparent elsewhere, it suggests that the processes controlling the T and E fluxes are coupled in a way to maintain a stable ratio.

Secular temperature trends for the southern Rocky Mountains over the last five centuries

[1] Pre-instrumental surface temperature variability in the Southwestern United States has traditionally been reconstructed using variations in the annual ring widths of high altitude trees that live near a growth-limiting isotherm. A number of studies have suggested that the response of some trees to temperature variations is non-stationary, warranting the development of alternative approaches towards reconstructing past regional temperature variability. Here we present a five-century temperature reconstruction for a highaltitude site in the Rocky Mountains derived from the oxygen isotopic composition of cellulose (d 18 Oc) from Bristlecone Pine trees. The record is independent of the co-located growth-based reconstruction while providing the same temporal resolution and absolute age constraints. The empirical correlation between d 18 Oc and instrumental temperatures is used to produce a temperature transfer function. A forward-model for cellulose isotope variations, driven by meteorological data and output from an isotope-enabled General Circulation Model, is used to evaluate the processes that propagate the temperature signal to the proxy. The cellulose record documents persistent multidecadal variations in d 18 Oc that are attributable to temperature shifts on the order of 1C but no sustained monotonic rise in temperature or a step-like increase since the late 19th century. The isotope-based temperature history is consistent with both regional wood density-based temperature estimates and some sparse early instrumental records. Citation: Berkelhammer, M., and L. D. Stott (2012), Secular temperature trends for the southern Rocky Mountains over the last five centuries, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L17701, doi:10.1029/2012GL052447.

On the low-frequency component of the ENSO–Indian monsoon relationship: a paired proxy perspective

There are a number of clear examples in the instrumental period where positive El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events were coincident with a severely weakened Indian summer monsoon (ISM). ENSO’s influence on ISM precipitation has therefore remained the centerpiece of various predictive schemes of ISM rainfall for over a century. The teleconnection between ISM precipitation and ENSO has undergone a protracted weakening since the late 1980s, suggesting the strength of ENSO’s influence on ISM precipitation may vary on multidecadal timescales. The recent weakening has occurred despite the fact that the ENSO system has experienced variance levels during the latter part of the 20th century that are as high as any period in the past millennium. The recent change in the ENSO–ISM coupling has prompted questions as to whether this shift represents a natural mode of climate variability or a fundamental change in ENSO and/or ISM dynamics due to anthropogenic warming or aerosol impacts on the ISM. Here we place the 20th century ENSO– ISM relationship in a millennial context by assessing the phase relationship between the two systems across the time spectrum using a a series of high-resolution reconstructions of ENSO and the ISM from tree rings, speleothems and corals. The results from all the proxies suggest that in the high-frequency domain (5–15 yr), warm (cool) sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific lead to a weakened (strengthened) monsoon. This finding is consistent with the observed relationship between the two systems during the instrumental period. However, in the multidecadal domain (30–90 yr) the phasing between the systems is reversed such that periods of strong monsoons were, in general, coincident with periods of enhanced ENSO variability. This result is counterintuitive to the expectation that enhanced ENSO variance favors an asymmetric increase in the frequency of El Niño events and therefore a weakened monsoon system. The finding implies that the prominent multidecadal variability that characterizes the last 1000 yr of the ISM is not likely attributable to multidecadal shifts in ENSO. If there is a continued trend towards enhanced ENSO variance in the coming decades, the results presented here do not suggest this will force a reduction in ISM precipitation.

Surface-atmosphere decoupling limits accumulation at Summit, Greenland

The surface of the Greenland ice sheet becomes isolated from the atmosphere during the winter, which acts to conserve ice mass. Despite rapid melting in the coastal regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, a significant area (~40%) of the ice sheet rarely experiences surface melting. In these regions, the controls on annual accumulation are poorly constrained owing to surface conditions (for example, surface clouds, blowing snow, and surface inversions), which render moisture flux estimates from myriad approaches (that is, eddy covariance, remote sensing, and direct observations) highly uncertain. Accumulation is partially determined by the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure, which influences the maximum humidity of air parcels reaching the ice sheet interior. However, independent proxies for surface temperature and accumulation from ice cores show that the response of accumulation to temperature is variable and not generally consistent with a purely thermodynamic control. Using three years of stable water vapor isotope profiles from a high altitude site on the Greenland Ice Sheet, we show that as the boundary layer becomes increasingly stable, a decoupling between the ice sheet and atmosphere occurs. The limited interaction between the ice sheet surface and free tropospheric air reduces the capacity for surface condensation to achieve the rate set by the humidity of the air parcels reaching interior Greenland. The isolation of the surface also acts to recycle sublimated moisture by recondensing it onto fog particles, which returns the moisture back to the surface through gravitational settling. The observations highlight a unique mechanism by which ice sheet mass is conserved, which has implications for understanding both past and future changes in accumulation rate and the isotopic signal in ice cores from Greenland.