Max G. Manwaring

Peru's Sendero Luminoso: The Shining Path Beckons

A security threat confronts the West from the worlds gray areas—regions where control is shifting to half-political, half-criminal transnational powers, such as Perus Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path). Sendero Luminosos vision, organization, and action program provide a new Marxist-Leninist-Maoist model for reforming political actors operating in other gray areas. Until the Sendero Luminoso insurgency is seriously addressed at the strategic level, the causes and consequences of such insurgency will continue to threaten Peru and perhaps other parts of the hemisphere and the world.

Non-State Actors in Colombia: Threats to the State and to the Hemisphere

This study seeks to explain the Colombian crisis in terms of non-state threats to the state and to the region. The problem in Colombia is that that country, and its potential, is deteriorating because of three ongoing, simultaneous, and interrelated wars involving the illegal drug industry, various insurgent organizations (primarily the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, FARC), and ‘vigilante’ paramilitary groups (the United Self- Defense Groups of Colombia, AUC). This unholy trinity of non-state actors is perpetrating a level of corruption, criminality, human horror, and internal (and external) instability that, if left unchecked at the strategic level, can ultimately threaten Colombias survival as an organized democratic state, and undermine the political stability and sovereignty of its neighbors. In that connection, there is now explicit recognition that Colombias current situation has reached crisis proportions. The critical point of this argument is that the substance, or essence, of the Colombian crisis centers on the general organization, activities, and threats of the major violent stateless actors at work in that country today. Each of the three armed nonstate players in Colombia generates formidable problems, challenges, and threats to the state and the region in its own right. What, then, of an alliance of the willing – even if that alliance represents a complicated mosaic of mutual and conflicting interests?

U.S. SECURITY POLICY IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE: Why Colombia, Why Now, and What Is To Be Done?

Abstract : This is one in the Special Series of monographs stemming from the February 2001 conference on Plan Colombia cosponsored by the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College and The Dante B. Fascell North-South Center of the University of Miami. In substantive U.S. national security terms, Dr. Manwaring addresses the questions, Why Colombia, Why Now, and What Is To Be Done? He explains the importance of that troubled country to the United States. He points out that the fragile democracy of Colombia is at risk, and that the violent spillover effects of three simultaneous wars pose a threat to the rest of the Western Hemisphere and the interdependent global community. Then Dr. Manwaring makes a case against continued tactical and operational approaches to the Colombian crisis and outlines what must be done. In that connection, he recommends an actionable political-military strategy to attain security, stability, democratic governance, and a sustainable peace. The proposed strategy would not be costly in monetary or military terms. It would, however, require deliberate planning, cooperation, time, and will.

The Challenge of Haiti's Future,

Abstract : The authors address three issues: social and economic advances in Haiti, achieving democracy and the rule of law, and the role of the United States and the international community in Haiti. They analyze the continuing need for reforms, the need to manage Haitian and foreign expectations in the area, the need to assist Haiti to formulate more effective political and economic decisionmaking processes, and the need for organized and integrated involvement of outside actors and support for sustainable development of the country. The authors set forth observations and policy recommendations.

Security, stability and sovereignty challenges of politicized gangs and insurgents in the Americas

There are numerous small, irregular, asymmetric, and revolutionary wars ongoing around the world today. In these conflicts, there is much to be learned by anyone who has the responsibility of dealing with, analyzing, or reporting on national security threats generated by state and non-state actors. The cases we examine (Mexico, Jamaica, Colombia, Argentina, and Peru) demonstrate how the weakening of national stability, security, and sovereignty can indirectly and directly contribute to personal and collective insecurity, radical political change, and possible state failure. These cases are also significant beyond their uniqueness. The common political objective in each diverse case isone way or anotherto control governments, and/or coerce radical change in discrete political-social-economic systems. This defines war as well as insurgency, and shifts the asymmetric global security challenge from abstract to real.