Max Mayfield

Hurricanes and Global Warming

This paper reviews recent research on tropical cyclones and climate change from the perspective of event risk—the physical behavior of storms; vulnerability—the characteristics of a system that create the potential for impacts, but are independent of event risk; and also outcome risk—the integration of considerations of vulnerability with event risk to characterize an event that causes losses. The paper concludes that with no trend identified in various metrics of hurricane damage over the twentieth century, it is exceedingly unlikely that scientists will identify large changes in historical storm behavior that have significant societal implications, though scientists may identify discernible changes in storm behavior. Looking to the future, until scientists conclude a) that there will be changes to storms that are significantly larger than observed in the past, b) that such changes are correlated to measures of societal impact, and c) that the effects of such changes are significant in the context of ine...

Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center

Abstract The National Hurricane Center issues analyses, forecasts, and warnings over large parts of the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and in support of many nearby countries. Advances in observational capabilities, operational numerical weather prediction, and forecaster tools and support systems over the past 15–20 yr have enabled the center to make more accurate forecasts, extend forecast lead times, and provide new products and services. Important limitations, however, persist. This paper discusses the current workings and state of the nation’s hurricane warning program, and highlights recent improvements and the enabling science and technology. It concludes with a look ahead at opportunities to address challenges.

THE DVORAK TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE A Satellite-Based Method that Has Endured for over 30 Years

The history of meteorology has taught us that weather analysis and prediction usually advances by a series of small, progressive studies. Occasionally, however, a special body of work can accelerate this process. When that work pertains to high-impact weather events that can affect large populations, it is especially notable. In this paper we review the contributions by Vernon F. Dvorak, whose innovations using satellite observations of cloud patterns fundamentally enhanced the ability to monitor tropical cyclones on a global scale. We discuss how his original technique has progressed, and the ways in which new spaceborne instruments are being employed to complement Dvoraks original visions.

Atlantic Hurricane season of 1992

Abstract The 1992 hurricane season is summarized, including accounts of individual storms. Six tropical storms were tracked, of which four became hurricanes. In addition, one subtropical storm formed during the year. The season will be remembered most, however, for Hurricane Andrew. Although Andrew was the only hurricane to make landfall in the contiguous United States during 1992, it earned the distinction of becoming the most expensive natural disaster in United States history.

Reply to "Hurricanes and Global Warming— Potential Linkages and Consequences"

e appreciate the effort taken by Anthes et al. (2006) to respond to our paper “Hurricanes and global warming.” Such open exchanges can help to clarify not only different perspectives on science, but also different perspectives on the structure and function of scientific assessments of peer-reviewed literature. We are very pleased that there appears to be a strong consensus among Pielke et al. (2005) and Anthes et al. (2006) on what sorts of policy actions make the most sense with respect to hurricane [hereafter, tropical cyclone (TC)] impacts in the context of ever-growing societal vulnerability. It would therefore be a misinterpretation of Anthes et al. (2006) or Pielke et al. (2005) to suggest that they support significantly different approaches to dealing with the impacts of tropical cyclones. Anthes et al. (2006) present three criticisms of our paper. One criticism is that Pielke et al. (2005) “leaves the impression that there is no significant connection between recent climate change caused by human activities and hurricane characteristics and impacts.” If by “significant” they mean either (a) presence in the peer-reviewed literature or (b) discernible in the observed economic impacts, then this is indeed an accurate reading. Anthes et al. (2006) provide no data, analyses, or references that directly connect observed hurricane characteristics and impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Anthes et al. (2006) include several important inconsistencies. First, Anthes et al. (2006) cite Emanuel (2005a) and Webster et al. (2005) to support claims of attribution of trends in hurricane intensity to global warming, when neither of those papers focused on attribution. Emanuel (2005a) expressed some uncertainty as to the factors responsible for the trends presented in that paper, stating “Whatever the cause, the near doubling of power dissipation over the period of record should be a matter of some concern” (emphasis added). Webster et al. (2005) even go so far as to observe that “attribution of the 30-year trends to global warming would require a longer global data record and, especially, a deeper understanding of the role of hurricanes in the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, even in the present climate state.”1 Future research may indeed demonstrate attribution, but until that time we should not make the mistake of confusing interesting hypotheses with conclusive research results. Second, Anthes et al. (2006) neglect two recent papers contradicting the notion that there are changes to hurricane characteristics and impacts outside of that expected due to natural climate variability. In a comment on Emanuel (2005a), Landsea (2005) demonstrated that in employing a correct analysis and not utilizing an out-of-date bias-removal scheme, the last 10 years of activity in the Atlantic basin were virtually indistinguishable from that which occurred W

Atlantic Hurricane Season of 1989

Abstract A general overview of the 1989 hurricane season is presented. Eleven named tropical cyclones were tracked, seven of which reached hurricane strength. Three hurricanes and a tropical storm struck the U.S. mainland. The large Cape Verde-type hurricanes dominated the season for the second consecutive year as Hugo raked the islands of the northeast Caribbean and devastated portions of the Carolinas making it the costliest hurricane ever.

Applications of VAS and TOVS to Tropical Cyclones

Initial results are presented on research designed to evaluate the usefulness of Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) data in tropical cyclone applications. It is part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration funded VAS demonstration, and the A/ational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Operational FAS Assessment (NOVA) program. The University of Wisconsin (UW) Space Science and Engineering Center (SSEC) and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Development Laboratory at the SSEC have been working with the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and the NOAA/Environmental Research Laboratories Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory—Hurricane Research Division (HRD) to explore the different uses of geostationary satellite VAS data in tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting. Because of the cloud-penetrating capability of the microwave component of the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS), polar orbiting sa...

Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 1994

Abstract An account of the 1994 hurricane season in the eastern North Pacific Ocean is given. The numbers of hurricanes and tropical storms were near normal, but the activity tended to occur farther to the west in the basin than usual. Hurricane Rosa was the only system of the season to make landfall.

Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 1991

Abstract The 1991 eastern North Pacific hurricane season is summarized. The season comprised 16 tropical cyclones, consisting of 10 hurricanes, 4 tropical storms, and 2 tropical depressions.

Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 1996

Abstract The National Hurricane Center (a component of the Tropical Prediction Center) tracked nine tropical storms, five of which became hurricanes, during the 1996 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Five tropical storms or hurricanes made landfall in Mexico. An overview of the 1996 hurricane season is presented.