Meera Kotagal

Global access to surgical care: a modelling study

BACKGROUND More than 2 billion people are unable to receive surgical care based on operating theatre density alone. The vision of the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery is universal access to safe, affordable surgical and anaesthesia care when needed. We aimed to estimate the number of individuals worldwide without access to surgical services as defined by the Commissions vision. METHODS We modelled access to surgical services in 196 countries with respect to four dimensions: timeliness, surgical capacity, safety, and affordability. We built a chance tree for each country to model the probability of surgical access with respect to each dimension, and from this we constructed a statistical model to estimate the proportion of the population in each country that does not have access to surgical services. We accounted for uncertainty with one-way sensitivity analyses, multiple imputation for missing data, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. FINDINGS At least 4·8 billion people (95% posterior credible interval 4·6-5·0 [67%, 64-70]) of the worlds population do not have access to surgery. The proportion of the population without access varied widely when stratified by epidemiological region: greater than 95% of the population in south Asia and central, eastern, and western sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to care, whereas less than 5% of the population in Australasia, high-income North America, and western Europe lack access. INTERPRETATION Most of the worlds population does not have access to surgical care, and access is inequitably distributed. The near absence of access in many low-income and middle-income countries represents a crisis, and as the global health community continues to support the advancement of universal health coverage, increasing access to surgical services will play a central role in ensuring health care for all. FUNDING None.

Perioperative hyperglycemia and risk of adverse events among patients with and without diabetes.

OBJECTIVE To study the association between diabetes status, perioperative hyperglycemia, and adverse events in a statewide surgical cohort. BACKGROUND Perioperative hyperglycemia may increase the risk of adverse events more significantly in patients without diabetes (NDM) than in those with diabetes (DM). METHODS Using data from the Surgical Care and Outcomes Assessment Program, a cohort study (2010-2012) evaluated diabetes status, perioperative hyperglycemia, and composite adverse events in abdominal, vascular, and spine surgery at 53 hospitals in Washington State. RESULTS Among 40,836 patients (mean age, 54 years; 53.6% women), 19% had diabetes; 47% underwent a perioperative blood glucose (BG) test, and of those, 18% had BG ≥180 mg/dL. DM patients had a higher rate of adverse events (12% vs 9%, P < 0.001) than NDM patients. After adjustment, among NDM patients, those with hyperglycemia had an increased risk of adverse events compared with those with normal BG. Among NDM patients, there was a dose-response relationship between the level of BG and composite adverse events [odds ratio (OR), 1.3 for BG 125-180 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1-1.5); OR, 1.6 for BG ≥180 (95% CI, 1.3-2.1)]. Conversely, hyperglycemic DM patients did not have an increased risk of adverse events, including those with a BG 180 or more (OR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.6-1.0). NDM patients were less likely to receive insulin at each BG level. CONCLUSIONS For NDM patients, but not DM patients, the risk of adverse events was linked to hyperglycemia. Underlying this paradoxical effect may be the underuse of insulin, but also that hyperglycemia indicates higher levels of stress in NDM patients than in DM patients.

Improving quality in resource poor settings: observational study from rural Rwanda

PROBLEM Hospitals in rural Africa, such as in Rwanda, often lack electricity, supplies, and staff. In our setting, basic care processes, such monitoring vital signs, giving drugs, and laboratory testing, were performed unreliably, resulting in delays in treatment owing to lack of information needed for clinical decision making. DESIGN Simple quality improvement tools, including plan-do-study-act cycles and process maps, were used to improve system level processes in a stepwise fashion; resources were augmented where necessary. SETTING 50 bed district hospital in rural Rwanda. MEASUREMENT OF IMPROVEMENT: Three key indicators (percentage of vital signs taken by 9 am, drugs given as prescribed, and laboratory tests performed and documented) were tracked daily. Data were collected from a random sample of 25 charts from six inpatient wards. STRATEGY FOR CHANGE Our intervention had two components: staff education on quality improvement and routine care processes, and stepwise implementation of system level interventions. Real time performance data were reported to staff daily, with a goal of 95% performance for each indicator within two weeks. A Rwandan quality improvement team was trained to run the hospitals quality improvement initiatives. EFFECTS OF CHANGES: Within two weeks, all indicators achieved the 95% goal. The data for the three objectives were analysed by using time series analysis. Progress was compared against time by using run chart rules for statistical significance of improvement, showing significant improvement for all indicators. Doctors and nurses subjectively reported improved patient care and higher staff morale. LESSONS LEARNT Four lessons are highlighted: making data visible and using them to inform subsequent interventions can promote change in resource poor settings; improvements can be made in advance of resource inputs, but sustained change in resource poor settings requires additional resources; local leadership is essential for success; and early successes were crucial for encouraging staff and motivating buy-in.

Health and Economic Benefits of Improved Injury Prevention and Trauma Care Worldwide

Objectives Injury is a significant source of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and often disproportionately affects younger, more productive members of society. While many have made the case for improved injury prevention and trauma care, health system development in low- and middle-income countries is often limited by resources. This study aims to determine the economic benefit of improved injury prevention and trauma care in low- and middle-income countries. Methods This study uses existing data on injury mortality worldwide from the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate the number of lives that could be saved if injury mortality rates in low- and middle-income countries could be reduced to rates in high-income countries. Using economic modeling – through the human capital approach and the value of a statistical life approach – the study then demonstrates the associated economic benefit of these lives saved. Results 88 percent of injury-related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. If injury mortality rates in low- and middle-income countries were reduced to rates in high-income countries, 2,117,500 lives could be saved per year. This would result in between 49 million and 52 million disability adjusted life years averted per year, with discounting and age weighting. Using the human capital approach, the associated economic benefit of reducing mortality rates ranges from

Use and accuracy of diagnostic imaging in the evaluation of pediatric appendicitis.

245 to

Ketorolac Use and Postoperative Complications in Gastrointestinal Surgery.

261 billion with discounting and age weighting. Using the value of a statistical life approach, the benefit is between 758 and 786 billion dollars per year. Conclusions Reducing injury mortality in low- and middle-income countries could save over 2 million lives per year and provide significant economic benefit globally. Further investments in trauma care and injury prevention are needed.

Impact of point-of-care ultrasound training on surgical residents' confidence.

BACKGROUND There are safety concerns about the use of radiation-based imaging (computed tomography [CT]) to diagnose appendicitis in children. Factors associated with CT use remain to be determined. METHODS For patients ≤18 years old undergoing appendectomy, we evaluated diagnostic imaging performed, patient characteristics, hospital type, and imaging/pathology concordance (2008-2012) using data from Washington States Surgical Care and Outcomes Assessment Program. RESULTS Among 2538 children, 99.7% underwent pre-operative imaging. 52.7% had a CT scan as their first study. After adjustment, age >10 years (OR 2.9 (95% CI 2.2-4.0), Hispanic ethnicity (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.5-1.9), and being obese (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.4-2.1) were associated with CT use first. Evaluation at a non-childrens hospital was associated with higher odds of CT use (OR 7.9, 95% CI 7.5-8.4). Ultrasound concordance with pathology was higher for males (72.3 vs. 66.4%, p=.03), in perforated appendicitis (75.9 vs. 67.5%, p=.009), and at childrens hospitals compared to general adult hospitals (77.3 vs. 62.2%, p<.001). CT use has decreased yearly statewide. CONCLUSIONS Over 50% of children with appendicitis had radiation-based imaging. Understanding factors associated with CT use should allow for more specific QI interventions to reduce radiation exposure. Site of care remains a significant factor in radiation exposure for children.

Use and definitions of perioperative mortality rates in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE To study the association between ketorolac use and postoperative complications. BACKGROUND Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs may impair wound healing and increase the risk of anastomotic leak in colon surgery. Studies to date have been limited by sample size, inability to identify confounding, and a focus limited to colon surgery. METHODS Ketorolac use, reinterventions, emergency department (ED) visits, and readmissions in adults (≥ 18 years) undergoing gastrointestinal (GI) operations was assessed in a nationwide cohort using the MarketScan Database (2008-2012). RESULTS Among 398,752 patients (median age 52, 45% male), 55% underwent colorectal surgery, whereas 45% had noncolorectal GI surgery. Five percent of patients received ketorolac. Adjusting for demographic characteristics, comorbidities, surgery type/indication, and preoperative medications, patients receiving ketorolac had higher odds of reintervention (odds ratio [OR] 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.32), ED visit (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.37-1.51), and readmission within 30 days (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05-1.18) compared to those who did not receive ketorolac. Ketorolac use was associated with readmissions related to anastomotic complications (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.06-1.36). Evaluating only admissions with ≤ 3 days duration to exclude cases where ketorolac might have been used for complication-related pain relief, the odds of complications associated with ketorolac were even greater. CONCLUSIONS Use of intravenous ketorolac was associated with greater odds of reintervention, ED visit, and readmission in both colorectal and noncolorectal GI surgery. Given this confirmatory evaluation of other reports of a negative association and the large size of this cohort, clinicians should exercise caution when using ketorolac in patients undergoing GI surgery.

The How Project: understanding contextual challenges to global surgical care provision in low-resource settings

OBJECTIVE Point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) is a vital tool for diagnosis and management of critically ill patients, particularly in resource-limited settings where access to diagnostic imaging may be constrained. We aimed to develop a novel POCUS training curriculum for surgical practice in the United States and in resource-limited settings in low- and middle-income countries and to determine its effect on surgical resident self-assessments of efficacy and confidence. DESIGN We conducted an observational cohort study evaluating a POCUS training course that comprised 7 sessions of 2 hours each with didactics and proctored skills stations covering ultrasound applications for trauma (Focused Assessement with Sonography for Trauma (FAST) examination), obstetrics, vascular, soft tissue, regional anesthesia, focused echocardiography, and ultrasound guidance for procedures. Surveys on attitudes, prior experience, and confidence in point-of-care ultrasound applications were conducted before and after the course. SETTING General Surgery Training Program in Seattle, Washington. PARTICIPANTS A total of 16 residents participated in the course; 15 and 10 residents completed the precourse and postcourse surveys, respectively. RESULTS The mean composite confidence score from pretest compared with posttest improved from 23.3 (±10.2) to 37.8 (±6.7). Median confidence scores (1-6 scale) improved from 1.5 to 5.0 in performance of FAST (p < 0.001). Residents reported greater confidence in their ability to identify pericardial (2 to 4, p = 0.009) and peritoneal fluid (2 to 4.5, p < 0.001), to use ultrasound to guide procedures (3.5 to 4.0, p = 0.008), and to estimate ejection fraction (1 to 4, p = 0.004). Both before and after training, surgical residents overwhelmingly agreed with statements that ultrasound would improve their US-based practice, make them a better surgical resident, and improve their practice in resource-limited settings. CONCLUSIONS After a POCUS course designed specifically for surgeons, surgical residents had improved self-efficacy and confidence levels across a broad range of skills.

Surgical Delivery in Under-resourced Settings: Building Systems and Capacity Around the Corner and Far Away

BACKGROUND Aggregate and risk-stratified perioperative mortality rates (POMR) are well-documented in high-income countries where surgical databases are common. In many low-income and middle-income country (LMIC) settings, such data are unavailable, compromising efforts to understand and improve surgical outcomes. We undertook a systematic review to determine how POMR is used and defined in LMICs and to inform baseline rates. METHODS We searched PubMed for all articles published between Jan 1, 2009, and Sept 1, 2014, reporting surgical mortality in LMICs. Search criteria, inclusion and exclusion criteria, and study assessment methodology are reported in the appendix. Titles and abstracts were screened independently by two reviewers. Full-text review and data extraction were completed by four trained clinician coders with regular validation for consistency. We extracted the definition of POMR used, clinical risk scores reported, and strategies for risk adjustment in addition to reported mortality rates. FINDINGS We screened 2657 abstracts and included 373 full-text articles. 493 409 patients in 68 countries and 12 surgical specialties were represented. The most common definition for the numerator of POMR was in-hospital deaths following surgery (55·3%) and for the denominator it was the number of operative patients (96·2%). Few studies reported preoperative comorbidities (41·8%), ASA status (11·3%), and HIV status (7·8%), with a smaller proportion stratifying on or adjusting mortality for these factors. Studies reporting on planned procedures recorded a median mortality of 1·2% (n=121 [IQR 0·0-4·7]). Median mortality was 10·1% (n=182 [IQR 2·5-16·2) for emergent procedures. INTERPRETATION POMR is frequently reported in LMICs, but a standardised approach for reporting and risk stratification is absent from the literature. There was wide variation in POMR across procedures and specialties. A quality assessment checklist for surgical mortality studies could improve mortality reporting and facilitate benchmarking across sites and countries. FUNDING None.