Mark G. Shrime

Global Surgery 2030: evidence and solutions for achieving health, welfare, and economic development.

Remarkable gains have been made in global health in the past 25 years, but progress has not been uniform. Mortality and morbidity from common conditions needing surgery have grown in the world’s poorest regions, both in real terms and relative to other health gains. At the same time, development of safe, essential, life-saving surgical and anesthesia care in low- and middleincome countries (LMICs) has stagnated or regressed. In the absence of surgical care, case-fatality rates are high for common, easily treatable conditions including appendicitis, hernia, fractures, obstructed labor, congenital anomalies, and breast and cervical cancer. Although the term, low- and middleincome countries (LMICs), has been used throughout the report for brevity, the Commission realizes that tremendous income diversity exists between and within this group of countries. In 2015, many LMICs are facing a multifaceted burden of infectious disease, maternal disease, neonatal disease, noncommunicable diseases, and injuries. Surgical and anesthesia care are essential for the treatment of many of these conditions and represent an integral component of a functional, responsive, and resilient health system. In view of the large projected increase in the incidence of cancer, road traffic injuries, and cardiovascular and metabolic diseases in LMICs, the need for surgical services in these regions will continue to rise substantially from now until 2030. Reduction of death and disability hinges on access to surgical and anesthesiacare,whichshouldbeavailable, affordable,timely,andsafetoensuregood coverage, uptake, and outcomes. Despite a growing need, the develop

Flavonoid-rich cocoa consumption affects multiple cardiovascular risk factors in a meta-analysis of short-term studies.

A growing body of evidence suggests that the consumption of foods rich in polyphenolic compounds, particularly cocoa, may have cardioprotective effects. No review, however, has yet examined the effect of flavonoid-rich cocoa (FRC) on all major cardiovascular risk factors or has examined potential dose-response relationships for these effects. A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized, controlled trials was performed to evaluate the effect of FRC on cardiovascular risk factors and to assess a dose-response relationship. Inclusion and exclusion criteria as well as dependent and independent variables were determined a priori. Data were collected for: blood pressure, pulse, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, TG, BMI, C-reactive protein, flow-mediated vascular dilation (FMD), fasting glucose, fasting insulin, serum isoprostane, and insulin sensitivity/resistance indices. Twenty-four papers, with 1106 participants, met the criteria for final analysis. In response to FRC consumption, systolic blood pressure decreased by 1.63 mm Hg (P = 0.033), LDL cholesterol decreased by 0.077 mmol/L (P = 0.038), and HDL cholesterol increased by 0.046 mmol/L (P = 0.037), whereas total cholesterol, TG, and C-reactive protein remained the same. Moreover, insulin resistance decreased (HOMA-IR: -0.94 points; P < 0.001), whereas FMD increased (1.53%; P < 0.001). A nonlinear dose-response relationship was found between FRC and FMD (P = 0.004), with maximum effect observed at a flavonoid dose of 500 mg/d; a similar relationship may exist with HDL cholesterol levels (P = 0.06). FRC consumption significantly improves blood pressure, insulin resistance, lipid profiles, and FMD. These short-term benefits warrant larger long-term investigations into the cardioprotective role of FRC.

Global access to surgical care: a modelling study

BACKGROUND More than 2 billion people are unable to receive surgical care based on operating theatre density alone. The vision of the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery is universal access to safe, affordable surgical and anaesthesia care when needed. We aimed to estimate the number of individuals worldwide without access to surgical services as defined by the Commissions vision. METHODS We modelled access to surgical services in 196 countries with respect to four dimensions: timeliness, surgical capacity, safety, and affordability. We built a chance tree for each country to model the probability of surgical access with respect to each dimension, and from this we constructed a statistical model to estimate the proportion of the population in each country that does not have access to surgical services. We accounted for uncertainty with one-way sensitivity analyses, multiple imputation for missing data, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. FINDINGS At least 4·8 billion people (95% posterior credible interval 4·6-5·0 [67%, 64-70]) of the worlds population do not have access to surgery. The proportion of the population without access varied widely when stratified by epidemiological region: greater than 95% of the population in south Asia and central, eastern, and western sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to care, whereas less than 5% of the population in Australasia, high-income North America, and western Europe lack access. INTERPRETATION Most of the worlds population does not have access to surgical care, and access is inequitably distributed. The near absence of access in many low-income and middle-income countries represents a crisis, and as the global health community continues to support the advancement of universal health coverage, increasing access to surgical services will play a central role in ensuring health care for all. FUNDING None.

Global cancer surgery: delivering safe, affordable, and timely cancer surgery

Surgery is essential for global cancer care in all resource settings. Of the 15.2 million new cases of cancer in 2015, over 80% of cases will need surgery, some several times. By 2030, we estimate that annually 45 million surgical procedures will be needed worldwide. Yet, less than 25% of patients with cancer worldwide actually get safe, affordable, or timely surgery. This Commission on global cancer surgery, building on Global Surgery 2030, has examined the state of global cancer surgery through an analysis of the burden of surgical disease and breadth of cancer surgery, economics and financing, factors for strengthening surgical systems for cancer with multiple-country studies, the research agenda, and the political factors that frame policy making in this area. We found wide equity and economic gaps in global cancer surgery. Many patients throughout the world do not have access to cancer surgery, and the failure to train more cancer surgeons and strengthen systems could result in as much as US

The relationship between oral malodor and volatile sulfur compound-producing bacteria

6.2 trillion in lost cumulative gross domestic product by 2030. Many of the key adjunct treatment modalities for cancer surgery--e.g., pathology and imaging--are also inadequate. Our analysis identified substantial issues, but also highlights solutions and innovations. Issues of access, a paucity of investment in public surgical systems, low investment in research, and training and education gaps are remarkably widespread. Solutions include better regulated public systems, international partnerships, super-centralisation of surgical services, novel surgical clinical trials, and new approaches to improve quality and scale up cancer surgical systems through education and training. Our key messages are directed at many global stakeholders, but the central message is that to deliver safe, affordable, and timely cancer surgery to all, surgery must be at the heart of global and national cancer control planning.

Cost-effectiveness of Competing Strategies for Management of Recurrent Clostridium difficile Infection: A Decision Analysis

Halitosis can be a crippling social problem, and standard dental treatments and mouthwashes often provide only temporary relief. The mouth is home to hundreds of bacterial species that produce several fetid substances as a result of protein degradation. Volatile sulfur compound (VSC)-producing bacteria colonizing the lingual dorsum have recently been implicated in the generation of halitosis. Detection of VSCs, such as methylmercaptan and hydrogen sulfite, via organoleptic and objective methods, can aid in the identification of their source. Following comprehensive evaluation for possible causes, most halitosis in patients seen in an ENT practice can be localized to the tongue. We review methods of diagnosis and treatment of oral malodor from the overgrowth of proteolytic, anaerobic, gram-negative bacteria on the crevices of the lingual dorsum. Bacteriologic analysis of biofilm and scraped specimens obtained from the lingual dorsum and other oral sites, primarily gingival pockets and tonsillar crypts, can identify VSC-producing bacteria. Porphyromonas, Prevotella, Actinobacillus, and Fusobacterium species are the most common organisms identified. Halitosis is an oral phenomenon, with almost no cases originating distal to the tonsils. Halitosis arising from the lingual dorsum secondary to overpopulated VSC-producing bacteria can be successfully managed with a combination of mechanical cleansing using tongue brushes or scrapes and chemical solutions containing essential oils, zinc chloride, and cetylpyridinium chloride.

Catastrophic expenditure to pay for surgery worldwide: a modelling study

BACKGROUND Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is an important cause of morbidity and healthcare costs, and is characterized by high rates of disease recurrence. The cost-effectiveness of newer treatments for recurrent CDI has not been examined, yet would be important to inform clinical practice. The aim of this study was to analyze the cost effectiveness of competing strategies for recurrent CDI. METHODS We constructed a decision-analytic model comparing 4 treatment strategies for first-line treatment of recurrent CDI in a population with a median age of 65 years: metronidazole, vancomycin, fidaxomicin, and fecal microbiota transplant (FMT). We modeled up to 2 additional recurrences following the initial recurrence. We assumed FMT delivery via colonoscopy as our base case, but conducted sensitivity analyses based on different modes of delivery. Willingness-to-pay threshold was set at

Synechia formation after endoscopic sinus surgery and middle turbinate medialization with and without FloSeal

50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year. RESULTS At our base case estimates, initial treatment of recurrent CDI using FMT colonoscopy was the most cost-effective strategy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of

Quality of life and complications following image-guided endoscopic sinus surgery

17 016 relative to oral vancomycin. Fidaxomicin and metronidazole were both dominated by FMT colonoscopy. On sensitivity analysis, FMT colonoscopy remained the most cost-effective strategy at cure rates >88.4% and CDI recurrence rates <14.9%. Fidaxomicin required a cost <

Global economic consequences of selected surgical diseases: a modelling study

1359 to meet our cost-effectiveness threshold. In clinical settings where FMT is not available or applicable, the preferred strategy appears to be initial treatment with oral vancomycin. CONCLUSIONS In this decision analysis examining treatment strategies for recurrent CDI, we demonstrate that FMT colonoscopy is the most cost-effective initial strategy for management of recurrent CDI.