Meridith M. Fry

The influence of ozone precursor emissions from four world regions on tropospheric composition and radiative climate forcing

0.4 2.6 to 1.9 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 1.2 to 0.9 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and 0.09 0.5 to 0.9 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP100) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 3.7 without stratospheric O3 or water vapor, 24.2 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (18.7 25.9 to 1.9 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 1.7 to 8.3 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 0.4 to 1.7 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP100 for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion

The Impact of Individual Anthropogenic Emissions Sectors on the Global Burden of Human Mortality due to Ambient Air Pollution.

Background: Exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can cause adverse health effects, including premature mortality due to cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer. Recent studies quantify global air pollution mortality but not the contribution of different emissions sectors, or they focus on a specific sector. Objectives: We estimated the global mortality burden of anthropogenic ozone and PM2.5, and the impact of five emissions sectors, using a global chemical transport model at a finer horizontal resolution (0.67° × 0.5°) than previous studies. Methods: We performed simulations for 2005 using the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), zeroing out all anthropogenic emissions and emissions from specific sectors (All Transportation, Land Transportation, Energy, Industry, and Residential and Commercial). We estimated premature mortality using a log-linear concentration–response function for ozone and an integrated exposure–response model for PM2.5. Results: We estimated 2.23 (95% CI: 1.04, 3.33) million deaths/year related to anthropogenic PM2.5, with the highest mortality in East Asia (48%). The Residential and Commercial sector had the greatest impact globally—675 (95% CI: 428, 899) thousand deaths/year—and in most regions. Land Transportation dominated in North America (32% of total anthropogenic PM2.5 mortality), and it had nearly the same impact (24%) as Residential and Commercial (27%) in Europe. Anthropogenic ozone was associated with 493 (95% CI: 122, 989) thousand deaths/year, with the Land Transportation sector having the greatest impact globally (16%). Conclusions: The contributions of emissions sectors to ambient air pollution–related mortality differ among regions, suggesting region-specific air pollution control strategies. Global sector-specific actions targeting Land Transportation (ozone) and Residential and Commercial (PM2.5) sectors would particularly benefit human health. Citation: Silva RA, Adelman Z, Fry MM, West JJ. 2016. The impact of individual anthropogenic emissions sectors on the global burden of human mortality due to ambient air pollution. Environ Health Perspect 124:1776–1784; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP177

Co-benefits of Global Greenhouse Gas Mitigation for Future Air Quality and Human Health.

Actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions often reduce co-emitted air pollutants, bringing co-benefits for air quality and human health. Past studies1–6 typically evaluated near-term and local co-benefits, neglecting the long-range transport of air pollutants7–9, long-term demographic changes, and the influence of climate change on air quality10–12. Here we simulate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health using a global atmospheric model and consistent future scenarios, via two mechanisms: a) reducing co-emitted air pollutants, and b) slowing climate change and its effect on air quality. We use new relationships between chronic mortality and exposure to fine particulate matter13 and ozone14, global modeling methods15, and new future scenarios16. Relative to a reference scenario, global GHG mitigation avoids 0.5±0.2, 1.3±0.5, and 2.2±0.8 million premature deaths in 2030, 2050, and 2100. Global average marginal co-benefits of avoided mortality are

Daily gridded weather for pesticide exposure modeling

50–380 (ton CO2)−1, which exceed previous estimates, exceed marginal abatement costs in 2030 and 2050, and are within the low range of costs in 2100. East Asian co-benefits are 10–70 times the marginal cost in 2030. Air quality and health co-benefits, especially as they are mainly local and near-term, provide strong additional motivation for transitioning to a low-carbon future.

Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health

Daily weather is compiled for pesticide exposure modeling from 1961 to 2014źat 0.25ź×ź0.25° latitude/longitude resolution for the United States using two National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) products: National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis and NOAA Climate Prediction Center Unified Rain Gauge Analysis. The compiled weather includes precipitation, temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and reference evapotranspiration. Reference evapotranspiration is calculated using the Hargreaves-Samani method. Prior to this update, US pesticide exposure models relied upon the Solar and Meteorological Surface Observation Network dataset, which provides the same variables but only from 1961 to 1990 for 237 US weather stations. More extensive (1961-2014), spatially-resolved weather allows for more robust estimates of time-averaged pesticide concentrations for assessing acute and chronic exposure to pesticides. Continued expansion of the weather dataset is planned as the latest data is released. Processed weather for pesticide exposure modeling will be publicly available from the US EPA. Daily, gridded weather is compiled from 1961 to 2014 for chemical transport modeling.Reference evapotranspiration is calculated empirically and included in the dataset.The dataset improves the spatial and temporal resolution of US pesticide models.The updated weather allows for more robust estimates of acute and chronic exposure.