Michael C. Melnychuk

Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes

Significance What would extensive fishery reform look like? In addition, what would be the benefits and trade-offs of implementing alternative approaches to fisheries management on a worldwide scale? To find out, we assembled the largest-of-its-kind database and coupled it to state-of-the-art bioeconomic models for more than 4,500 fisheries around the world. We find that, in nearly every country of the world, fishery recovery would simultaneously drive increases in food provision, fishery profits, and fish biomass in the sea. Our results suggest that a suite of approaches providing individual or communal access rights to fishery resources can align incentives across profit, food, and conservation so that few trade-offs will have to be made across these objectives in selecting effective policy interventions. Data from 4,713 fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of global reported fish catch, are analyzed to estimate the status, trends, and benefits of alternative approaches to recovering depleted fisheries. For each fishery, we estimate current biological status and forecast the impacts of contrasting management regimes on catch, profit, and biomass of fish in the sea. We estimate unique recovery targets and trajectories for each fishery, calculate the year-by-year effects of alternative recovery approaches, and model how alternative institutional reforms affect recovery outcomes. Current status is highly heterogeneous—the median fishery is in poor health (overfished, with further overfishing occurring), although 32% of fisheries are in good biological, although not necessarily economic, condition. Our business-as-usual scenario projects further divergence and continued collapse for many of the world’s fisheries. Applying sound management reforms to global fisheries in our dataset could generate annual increases exceeding 16 million metric tons (MMT) in catch,

Freshwater and marine migration and survival of endangered Cultus Lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) smolts using POST, a large-scale acoustic telemetry array

53 billion in profit, and 619 MMT in biomass relative to business as usual. We also find that, with appropriate reforms, recovery can happen quickly, with the median fishery taking under 10 y to reach recovery targets. Our results show that commonsense reforms to fishery management would dramatically improve overall fish abundance while increasing food security and profits.

In situ measurement of coastal ocean movements and survival of juvenile Pacific salmon.

Freshwater and early marine migration and survival of endangered Cultus Lake sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) salmon were studied using the Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking (POST) array. Smolts were acoustically tagged in 2004-2007, and their migration was recorded within the lower Fraser River and coastal southern British Columbia waters. Most smolts showed rapid directional movement (swimming speeds of ~15-30 kmday -1 ). Average exit time from the Fraser River was 4.0-5.6 days after release, and average residence time within the Strait of Georgia was 25.6-34.1 days. Most individuals migrated northward, generally close to the mainland coast. Survival rates, assessed using standard mark-recapture meth- ods, were generally high during the downstream migration (50%-70%), except in 2005 when survival was <20%, possibly because of a late release. Marine survival rates were stable among years, between 10%-30% at a subarray sited 500 km away from the release site. Movement rates were similar to those of previously published work, but the POST array pro- vided direct measurements of movement and estimates of survival and demonstrated the feasibility of establishing conti- nental-scale acoustic arrays for management and conservation of marine species.

Survival of migrating salmon smolts in large rivers with and without dams.

Many salmon populations in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans have experienced sharply decreasing returns and high ocean mortality in the past two decades, with some populations facing extirpation if current marine survival trends continue. Our inability to monitor the movements of marine fish or to directly measure their survival precludes experimental tests of theories concerning the factors regulating fish populations, and thus limits scientific advance in many aspects of fisheries management and conservation. Here we report a large-scale synthesis of survival and movement rates of free-ranging juvenile salmon across four species, 13 river watersheds, and 44 release groups of salmon smolts (>3,500 fish tagged in total) in rivers and coastal ocean waters, including an assessment of where mortality predominantly occurs during the juvenile migration. Of particular importance, our data indicate that, over the size range of smolts tagged, (i) smolt survival was not strongly related to size at release, (ii) tag burden did not appear to strongly reduce the survival of smaller animals, and (iii) for at least some populations, substantial mortality occurred much later in the migration and more distant from the river of origin than generally expected. Our findings thus have implications for determining where effort should be invested to improve the accuracy of salmon forecasting, to understand the mechanisms driving salmon declines, and to predict the impact of climate change on salmon stocks.

Riverine and early ocean migration and mortality patterns of juvenile steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) from the Cheakamus River, British Columbia

The mortality of salmon smolts during their migration out of freshwater and into the ocean has been difficult to measure. In the Columbia River, which has an extensive network of hydroelectric dams, the decline in abundance of adult salmon returning from the ocean since the late 1970s has been ascribed in large measure to the presence of the dams, although the completion of the hydropower system occurred at the same time as large-scale shifts in ocean climate, as measured by climate indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We measured the survival of salmon smolts during their migration to sea using elements of the large-scale acoustic telemetry system, the Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking (POST) array. Survival measurements using acoustic tags were comparable to those obtained independently using the Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag system, which is operational at Columbia and Snake River dams. Because the technology underlying the POST array works in both freshwater and the ocean, it is therefore possible to extend the measurement of survival to large rivers lacking dams, such as the Fraser, and to also extend the measurement of survival to the lower Columbia River and estuary, where there are no dams. Of particular note, survival during the downstream migration of at least some endangered Columbia and Snake River Chinook and steelhead stocks appears to be as high or higher than that of the same species migrating out of the Fraser River in Canada, which lacks dams. Equally surprising, smolt survival during migration through the hydrosystem, when scaled by either the time or distance migrated, is higher than in the lower Columbia River and estuary where dams are absent. Our results raise important questions regarding the factors that are preventing the recovery of salmon stocks in the Columbia and the future health of stocks in the Fraser River.

Spatio-Temporal Migration Patterns of Pacific Salmon Smolts in Rivers and Coastal Marine Waters

High mortality (65–73%) occurred in the first month of the smolt migration in a population of wild steelhead trout. We used acoustic telemetry to monitor the downstream, estuarine, and early ocean migration of tagged smolts and estimate their mortality rates. After entering the Strait of Georgia most smolts migrated north through Johnstone and Queen Charlotte Straits rather than south through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Of 51 smolts tagged in 2004 (49 in 2005), 36–38 (41–42) survived to leave freshwater and 14–19 (13–14) survived to leave the Strait of Georgia system. Mortality rates in separate segments of the migration were correlated with segment distances. An additional component of mobile sampling showed that few smolts died during the migration through Howe Sound. Migration rates averaged 0.7–0.9 body lengths per second (BL s−1) downstream and 1.0–2.6 BL s−1 in ocean waters. Aggregated detection probabilities of 92–96% on lines of ocean receivers suggest that migration routes of small fishes can be quantified over several hundred kilometres, and survival rates can be estimated for even a modest number of tagged fish. Quantifying mortality patterns during the smolt migration could help to determine causes of low marine survival rates observed in recent years.

Fisheries management impacts on target species status

Background Migrations allow animals to find food resources, rearing habitats, or mates, but often impose considerable predation risk. Several behavioural strategies may reduce this risk, including faster travel speed and taking routes with shorter total distance. Descriptions of the natural range of variation in migration strategies among individuals and populations is necessary before the ecological consequences of such variation can be established. Methodology/Principal Findings Movements of tagged juvenile coho, steelhead, sockeye, and Chinook salmon were quantified using a large-scale acoustic tracking array in southern British Columbia, Canada. Smolts from 13 watersheds (49 watershed/species/year combinations) were tagged between 2004–2008 and combined into a mixed-effects model analysis of travel speed. During the downstream migration, steelhead were slower on average than other species, possibly related to freshwater residualization. During the migration through the Strait of Georgia, coho were slower than steelhead and sockeye, likely related to some degree of inshore summer residency. Hatchery-reared smolts were slower than wild smolts during the downstream migration, but after ocean entry, average speeds were similar. In small rivers, downstream travel speed increased with body length, but in the larger Fraser River and during the coastal migration, average speed was independent of body length. Smolts leaving rivers located towards the northern end of the Strait of Georgia ecosystem migrated strictly northwards after ocean entry, but those from rivers towards the southern end displayed split-route migration patterns within populations, with some moving southward. Conclusions/Significance Our results reveal a tremendous diversity of behavioural migration strategies used by juvenile salmon, across species, rearing histories, and habitats, as well as within individual populations. During the downstream migration, factors that had strong effects on travel speeds included species, wild or hatchery-rearing history, watershed size and, in smaller rivers, body length. During the coastal migration, travel speeds were only strongly affected by species differences.

Hypoxia Tolerance of Two Haplochromine Cichlids: Swamp Leakage and Potential for Interlacustrine Dispersal

Significance There is broad public interest in the health of our oceans and marine life at local, national, and international levels. In recent years there has been increasing concern about whether our fisheries can sustainably provide seafood without overfishing fish stocks. Several papers have described the global status of fish populations (i.e., their abundance and exploitation rates) and have hypothesized influences of fisheries management, but this report is unique in being a comprehensive analysis of how specific management attributes (which are numerous and operate simultaneously) affect population status across oceans, countries, and taxonomic groups. Our report integrates management policies and population ecology to assess sustainable harvesting outcomes of target species in marine fisheries; results have important global food security implications. Fisheries management systems around the world are highly diverse in their design, operation, and effectiveness at meeting objectives. A variety of management institutions, strategies, and tactics are used across disparate regions, fishing fleets, and taxonomic groups. At a global level, it is unclear which particular management attributes have greatest influence on the status of fished populations, and also unclear which external factors affect the overall success of fisheries management systems. We used expert surveys to characterize the management systems by species of 28 major fishing nations and examined influences of economic, geographic, and fishery-related factors. A Fisheries Management Index, which integrated research, management, enforcement, and socioeconomic attributes, showed wide variation among countries and was strongly affected by per capita gross domestic product (positively) and capacity-enhancing subsidies (negatively). Among 13 management attributes considered, three were particularly influential in whether stock size and fishing mortality are currently in or trending toward desirable states: extensiveness of stock assessments, strength of fishing pressure limits, and comprehensiveness of enforcement programs. These results support arguments that the key to successful fisheries management is the implementation and enforcement of science-based catch or effort limits, and that monetary investment into fisheries can help achieve management objectives if used to limit fishing pressure rather than enhance fishing capacity. Countries with currently less-effective management systems have the greatest potential for improving long-term stock status outcomes and should be the focus of efforts to improve fisheries management globally.

Estimation of survival and detection probabilities for multiple tagged salmon stocks with nested migration routes, using a large-scale telemetry array

The ability to tolerate hypoxia in some haplochromine cichlid fishes contributes to the richness of habitats occupied by the lineage and may be important in interlacustrine dispersal through swampy channels. Lacustrine members of the genus Astatotilapia tend to be ecologically plastic but are rarely encountered in the interior of dense swamps. A notable exception is seen in the swamp corridor that joins Lake Kabaleka with Lake George, Uganda, where one species (Astatotilapia ‘wrought-iron’) is abundant, and a second species, A. aeneocolor, is rare. Both species are abundant in the open waters of the main lake. In this paper, we compare physiological (oxygen consumption) and behavioral indicators of hypoxia tolerance between A. ‘wrought-iron’ from swamp and open-water habitats and between the two species of Astatotilapia. When exposed to progressive hypoxia, all fish used aquatic surface respiration (ASR); however, swamp-dwelling A. ‘wrought-iron’ showed lower gill ventilation rates prior to the initiation of ASR, higher pre-ASR aggression rates, higher swimming speed during ASR, and a higher rate of bubble exchange than both the open-water group of A. ‘wrought-iron’ and A. aeneocolor. These differences may reflect interpopulational variation in selection pressure for low-oxygen tolerance between swamp and open-water habitats. Several lines of evidence suggest that A. ‘wrought-iron’ was in general more hypoxia tolerant than A. aeneocolor. These include a lower ASR90 threshold, a drop in gill ventilation rate with the onset of ASR, and lower rate of equilibrium loss under extreme hypoxia in A. ‘wrought-iron’. The routine metabolic rate and critical oxygen tension did not differ between swamp-dwelling and open-water A. ‘wrought-iron’, or between A. ‘wrought-iron’ and A. aeneocolor. Comparative data on the ASR thresholds and critical oxygen tensions of the Astatotilapia species from Lake Kabaleka and other East African cichlids suggest intermediate hypoxia tolerance. Nevertheless, our study suggests that some generalized lacustrine haplochromines may ‘leak’ through swamp corridors even under relatively extreme conditions.

Estimating detection probabilities of tagged fish migrating past fixed receiver stations using only local information

Mark-recapture models for estimating survival and detection probabilities of tagged animals that migrate past successive receiver stations can incorporate multiple, linked stocks to improve detection probability estimates. When multiple release groups are analysed in a common framework, detection information can be shared to compensate for small sample sizes and provide generality beyond single-stock approaches. Methods for structuring complex detection history data and applying standard mark-recapture models are presented, allowing for information sharing among multiple stocks under nested migration route structures, where some portions of routes are shared with other stocks and other portions are unique. Possible biases from split-route migration patterns within a release group are described, along with a simple method of correcting these biases using stock-specific parameters that incorporate movement probabilities. Environmental covariates can be paired with stock-specific run timing data to model stock-specific detection probabilities that change seasonally. Finally, a method for assessing the redundancy of receivers on a multiple-receiver detection line is described, based on considerations of receiver line geometry. Examples are drawn from detection data of juvenile salmon on the Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking Project (POST) array, but the methods presented here are transferable to other systems.