Michael Gasiorek

The welfare implications of trade liberalization between the Southern Mediterranean and the EU

The impact on the Southern Mediterranean Countries (SMC) of the current process of trade liberalization with the European Union is explored. The methodology is that of computable general equilibrium modelling under imperfect competition and the model includes ten countries and 11 sectors. This allows for both a cross-country and cross-sectoral analysis of the results. The experiments considered are the full liberalization of tariffs, as well as changes in market access and trade-induced changes in productivity. A key feature of the paper is that the phased introduction of tariff reductions is allowed for as explicitly envisaged in the Agreements. The results show that the process of liberalization may have a substantial, though non-monotonic, impact on the SMC economies in terms of both changes in production and through this on welfare. The welfare impact is potentially very high in particular for the high tariff economies. The sources of the welfare gain tend to derive from perfectly competitive explanations of trade for the high tariff economies, and from imperfectly competitive explanations of trade for the low tariff economies.

The Accession of the UK to the EC: A Welfare Analysis

This article provides a decomposition of the welfare impact on the UK arising from the changes in manufacturing trade consequent upon joining the EC. The methodology employed is that of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling, where the underlying model is based on trade under imperfect competition with firms producing under conditions of increasing returns to scale. CGE models can be seen as providing numerical illustrations of theory, or as empirical tools providing estimates of policies. A second aim of this article is then to asses the extent to which CGE models can be used as serious tools of policy analysis. We examine this by assessing the success of the model in replicating counterfactual outcomes. The results indicate (i) that the model does reasonably well in replicating complex reality and that such models can be empirically useful; (ii) that a substantial portion of the welfare impact is attributed to distortions associated with imperfect competition, and that the impact is potentially quite large.

Economic Feasibility, General Economic Impact and Implications of a Free Trade Agreement between the European Union and Armenia

The aim of this study is to evaluate the economic feasibility and implications of free trade agreement between the EU and Armenia as well as of greater regional integration between Georgia, Armenia and the Black Sea countries. The study uses a mix of qualitative and quantitative analysis along with surveys, sectoral studies and local expert knowledge. Overall, we conclude that a free trade agreement between Armenia and the EU is feasible, but a Simple FTA (abolition of tariffs) would not bring significant economic benefits to Armenia. The real gains could materialize over the medium to long term with a completion of a Deep FTA (abolition of tariffs, significant institutional harmonization and improvement in the business environment). Given the slow progress with the implementation of the ENP Action Plan, serious questions remain as to the institutional capacity of Armenia to undertake steps towards harmonization with EU aquis beyond those indicated in the ENP Action Plan. However, these problems might be eased with technical assistance.

The Business Environment and Moroccan Firm Productivity

The paper focuses on the role of the business environment in understanding differences in the total factor productivity of Moroccan firms. The business environment is captured by measures which include the investment climate in which firms operate, i.e. access to credit, regulatory and institutional environment and infrastructure. The evidence on the relationship between credit and productivity is strongly indicative of credit resources misallocation in Morocco. We also find that, heavier bureaucracy and differences in regulations appear to have a negative effect on firm productivity. This last result is particularly relevant for small firms, and/or those that do not export and/or those with no access to foreign capital.